@Desi_Trade Molto bello, goditi il momento, te lo meriti.
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Anthony Sclafani
323 posts
@TradingThomas3 Oh cool there’s a bunch of AI stuff I want to use leverage for
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@ohiain This is the nuance that takes years to develop,
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A sub just asked me:
"How do you decide when to buy a bounce off the 21 EMA versus a bounce off the 9 EMA?"
But I don't really think about it that way.
Nobody knows whether a stock is going to bounce off the 9EMA, the 21EMA, or blow right through both. If we knew that, trading would be easy.
What I'm looking for is whether my thesis is being confirmed.
If I think a stock is a leader, pulling back constructively, and setting up for another expansion move, then I'll watch how it behaves around those areas. If price comes into the 9EMA or 21EMA and starts confirming my thesis through relative strength, tightening up, reclaiming pivots, 15/30min breaks, etc., then I'll execute.
1) Sometimes the 9EMA works.
2) Sometimes it needs the 21EMA.
Sometimes I get stopped on the first attempt, and the second or third attempt is the one that sticks.
That's why I focus more on what I can control:
MY PROCESS.
My job isn't to know exactly where the bounce happens...but to recognize when price starts confirming my idea and manage risk if I'm wrong.
Again, my 2 cents.
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@SquirrelMacro @dopamine_uptake Got ya. Seems like a sticky wicket to be sure. Being in a crowded trade, with leverage, into an illiquid book with market conditions at ATH and little overall left tail protection for bid… I think that movie plot sounds familiar
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@AnthonySclafa17 @dopamine_uptake The point is not which pipe but the delay / warehouse requirement
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Some eyewatering spacex IPO mechanics courtesy of Rupert Mitchell
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@ohiain Yeah but it was because the index was weak, because of that news spike, it will totally recover once the index firms up 🙄😬😂
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1 of the funniest things traders do is spend 30 minutes carefully planning a stop/thesis...
...and then completely ignore it when price gets there.
A stop is not a suggestion, nor a discussion.
It's simply the price where your thesis FAILED.
Take the SMALL loss and move on.
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@shentrades Rules that are created as a stop gap for another rule that is ignored are invalid imo. On a particular day you might have a huge edge in the first 15. The real issue is the size of the losses. Over time they will destroy your mental, emotional and physical capital. Fix that only
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@VolSignals Tried hard to figure this out. No luck before, no chance now
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@AnkurPatel59 Depends on market condition. If the index has just tested the 200 d then absolutely. If index is at ath 5% above its 20d then no chance
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Stock quiz time.
Here is the daily chart of a stock.
The stock made a strong move of more than 100% in around 20 trading sessions.
After that, it went sideways for nearly 9 weeks. The stock bounced from its 50 EMA and is now trading near its 10 and 20 EMA.
Now the question is
Regardless of the market condition, will this setup make it to your watch list?
Yes or No? And please, explain your why.
Your reasoning is what builds clarity in your process.
#Stockquiz
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@CFlanders7 Wow that’s absolutely stunning. I feel so much better hearing that. Thanks for sharing. I was so disappointed that I I was up less than 20% on the year.
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Reality Check:
"oh man, everyone is up 1000%+ except me..."
USIC results YTD
Only 20% of the field reported being profitable coming into May.
Only 12 out of the 660 entrants are up 100%+
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@Tkh1411611 @AnthonySclafa17 @BeardoTrader The market will use any excuse to rip-up-your-face rally.
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How old were you when you took your first trade?
Curious how early the obsession started for most of us.
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@CFlanders7 Wonderful description! It’s almost musical in nature as if the song is amazing but you’re dancing off rhythm. I feel that and am experiencing it. Maybe that’s the key to getting back in sync. Pause and listen, count the beats enter on one and find the flow…
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Mistakes I made in 2019. Don’t believe the rally is for real. Hesitate and don’t take the first few names breaking out. Try other names with excessive size to make up for the gains I should have had. Market pulls, get stopped out on some, sell or reduce the others due to pressure . Size even more on the next round of names to make up for what I should have been up in the first and second round of names, rinse repeat. Have a few early leaders start flagging, size in expecting a break out. Stop out, end up trying 3 more times inside the flag. They all stop out, each one I sized with more and more risk.
Hit risk limits for the month at various points in the rally, keep trading with larger size to dig myself out. How can i stop trading when the rally is so strong?
At the end of it, was down around 30%. If I had followed my risk rules, year would have been down less than 10% (I’d have to go back and check to get exact numbers). More importantly there would not have been the spiraling and I could have likely salvaged a profitable albeit disappointing year.
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@GoshawkTrades Unfortunately the goal was never endless survival. At some point the candle must be worth the flame and in that the gap leaps must be taken
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trading is brutal and most people underestimate how brutal.
but i think the part that doesn't get said enough is that a lot of the brutality is self-inflicted through sizing.
the trader who's "one or two clicks away from homelessness", that's not a market problem. that's a position sizing problem. the market didn't ruin them. the leverage did.
the uncomfortable truth is that the returns most traders chase require a level of risk that most humans can't psychologically sustain. and the returns that are psychologically sustainable don't look impressive enough for most people to bother with.
that gap is where all the damage happens.
if you size for survival instead of glory, trading goes from "life or death" to "boring". but you'll still be here in 10 years.
though a big factor in achieving higher returns is being able to be uncomfortable.
the more comfortable the risk, often the lower the returns.
gainzy@gainzy222
Trading’s the most brutal profession Someone at rock bottom today will be retired in 2 years Someone who peaked today will round trip everything in the next 2 years You made it? They call you lucky You lost it? They call you gambling addict
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@pistolpeteny @JEFETRADES The imbalance could have been paired better before opening there are ways to clear it prior. There were reports that MS were in fact concerned that it was opening too high.
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A DEPRESSING IPO... THEY GOT COOKED 🧑🍳
$CBRS JUST WENT PUBLIC AND ITS LOOKIN UGLY, now the initial IPO was set for $185... Well it came out at $350 YEA. We had a slight push then an immediate dump.
Likely we see more downside, DO NOT FOMO This is going to be a MASSIVE setup👇
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