Antipodean Macro

No nonsense views on the Australian & kiwi economies (+ more). Ex central banker & market economist. Thought provoking (hopefully) & chart driven. Subscribe: bit.ly/4ay7m6l

Aussie non-res building approvals have been surging higher, but it's mostly all data-centre-related which are captured in the orange line below.

@AvidCommentator Prices are already falling in Sydney. Have been for 2 months. Clearance rates are a coincident, not leading, indicator.

The Sydney auction market has been smashed to its second weakest result of the post-pandemic era (ex-holiday season) Only one result from June 2022 produced a marginally worse outcome. Even every post April 2020 pandemic era result was better. Price falls ahead. Chart: SQM

ONLY CHARTS #536 is out now. tinyurl.com/5n7rssuw

Wide range of ULP91 prices in Sydney now but plenty at 229.9/litre after fuel excise cut 26.3c/litre.

As you chomp into that uber expensive Easter egg this weekend, remember that cocoa prices have fallen back to decade-ago levels....

Why give subsidies to everyone? If you feel the need to do something, target the battlers thru the benefits system. Our politicians have ZERO good ideas. It's embarrassing.

Very bad policy and absolute vote chasing.

Kiwis love a bit of transparency. Australia, not so much.

ONLY CHARTS #533 is out. tinyurl.com/y6tn84f6

ONLY CHARTS #532 is out. tinyurl.com/3c8xw2dz

@PeteWargent That is open to so much interpretation, particularly with headline CPI inflation on track to hit ~5% y/y.

Moar

Our preview of Australia's Q1 CPI and what it means for the RBA is out for subscribers. tinyurl.com/28c9c328

ONLY CHARTS #531 is out... ...with more detail on the Aussie CPI than you knew you needed. tinyurl.com/53kyu593

Softer monthly trimmed mean for Feb but still looking at a strong outcome for Q1.

That would be stupid.

@ChrisEconomist Unfortunately you and I both suspect it will take a deep downturn to get proper reform.

LOSERS … I know losers all too well: as a budget nerd, I am one But politicians hate losers, because losers change who they vote for That’s why lots of sensible change never happens, as it would create losers Now layer that over today As the Treasurer rightly says, the challenges of the moment are “a reason for more reform, not less … a reason to go further, not slower” Yet current circumstances are making families lose – they’re petrol costs have gone up, and their food, gas and electricity costs will eventually follow And the political challenge of change is that it creates losers – a group who are always way grumpier than any winners are happy: · So a reform budget is an unpopular budget even if its changes don’t change the overall budget balance · And a reform budget that also improves the budget balance is a two-time loser – it creates losers from its changes, and it creates losers from its savings · By the way, that’s why economists argue for reform during the good times – because reforms during hard times are even harder to achieve politically That backdrop explains the tug-of-war underway in Canberra right now · The economic hard heads point out an enormous need for change is here at the same time as a floundering opposition means there’s an enormous political opportunity for change · But the political hard heads are worried that reforms – especially reforms that save money in overall terms – would create lots of losers atop a new groundswell of losers due to the war in the Middle East Politics being politics, regardless of who wins Canberra’s tug-of-war, the resulting budget on May 12 will get called a triumph of reform I hope we do get genuine reforms. Australia has changed our policies far too little for far too long, and our budget is covered in barnacles: silly spending, terrible taxes Let’s hope our political class rises to this moment

ONLY CHARTS #530 is out. tinyurl.com/55v23j8a

From the Q4 Aussie federal EBA report from DEWR. WTF?

NZ announcing targeted fiscal stimulus $NZD *NZ'S WILLIS: SUPPORT FOR 12 MONTHS OR UNTIL FUEL UNDER NZ$3/L *NZ'S WILLIS: ABOUT 143,000 FAMILIES TO GET NZ$50 MORE A WEEK *NZ'S WILLIS: GOVT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR FAMILIES FROM APRIL 7