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'Australian Investor Mortgage Demand Collapses'
"New investor loans down as much as 50%"
burnouteconomics.com/p/australian-i…
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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺
99.1K posts
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺
@AvidCommentator
Economics writer and analyst Macrobusiness | Yahoo Finance | https://t.co/650ZahY2Lx You can help to support my content by subscribing at https://t.co/oaLPzJDjsh
Australia Katılım Ağustos 2018
476 Takip Edilen42.8K Takipçiler
S*** is getting real serious 😂
Anonymous@YourAnonNews
BREAKING NEWS: Markets spiral after the Islamic Republic of Japan sends Godzilla to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
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"Moral posturing is no substitute for planning, and accusations of prejudice are no answer to math."
Well said.
This approach is one of the most damaging things they could possibly do.
🇦🇺Craig Tindale@ctindale
Minns is determined to turn a question of public administration into a test of moral virtue. It is an old trick. Once every discussion of immigration is recast as a contest between enlightened multicultural inclusiveness and snarling racial prejudice, his government is relieved of the obligation to account for overcrowded schools, unaffordable housing, inadequate childcare, congested transport, precarious employment and the dwindling prospects of our young folk . To ask whether population growth has outrun infrastructure is not to denounce the people who arrive. It is to question the competence of those in charge. Yet this distinction must be blurred, because clarity would be politically inconvenient. Better to accuse the questioner of moral failure than to answer the questions or meet the challenges we face . Meanwhile, new housing is produced with all the vision of a prison architect: fewer trees, negligible gardens, cramped streets, inadequate parks and nowhere for children to play. This is then presented as progress, provided everyone uses his approved vocabulary while living with the deteriorating result. It pure gutless incompetence hiding behind multicultural ideology The issue is not really about cultural inclusion. If we did this properly , competently & slowly many of the cultural issues would dissipate . It is whether a government has matched population growth with homes, schools, transport, jobs , health care and humane public spaces. Moral posturing is no substitute for planning, and accusations of prejudice are no answer to math.
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An impressive level of support for Count Binface's policy of reducing the cost of a flake to 99 pence.
Interesting there isnt greater support for abolishing VAR.
Yes, this is real polling from Ipsos...
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Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 32.4% (29.9% last weekend)
- Melbourne 37.6% (35.9%)
Sydney a strong bounce, but on far lower volumes and still to a very historically low levels.
Auction volumes have a little under halved in Sydney since this time in June.
Weaker volumes on seasonality is to be expected, but not quite to this degree.
Melbourne a bounce from the near historic lows also with volumes remaining low.
I suspect both markets may continue to bounce around within this weak range until spring, when if historic norms are in place, much higher volumes will test both markets.
Ultimately, both markets remain in a zone of major price falls. Methodology in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator
Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 29.9% (27.0% last weekend) - Melbourne 35.9% (37.2%) Sydney saw a bounce from its all time low last week (on my data set), but still weaker now than any point prior to recent months (ex-public holiday & Xmas impacted results). Melbourne back down to within a few percentage points of its post lockdown lows. It's worth noting that volumes in Melbourne have fallen significantly, down to their lowest level since the first real auction weekend of 2025. Sydney volumes are also down, but to something more resembling normal seasonal lows. SQM's results last week saw a stronger picture for Sydney than my preliminary numbers, with unreported auctions coming in with stronger results than usual come Tuesday. Melbourne on the other hand saw the complete opposite, with Melbourne hitting the lowest level since lockdown. Ultimately, both markets remain in a zone of major price falls. Methodology in graphic below. #AvidAuctions
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@SarnSats @platypusWarby Exactly, its how a country like Japan or South Korea functions despite low migration and poor demographics.
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@platypusWarby @AvidCommentator Actually you'll see wages rise in those unfilled positions to a level where the employment market deems it worth filling.
Do you seriously think jobs will just go unfilled forever as the compensation increases?
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So cut migration dramatically.
Folks need to stop pretending this isnt a solution to this issue.
The Australian@australian
Weekly rents are outpacing savings, and house prices refuse to fall fast enough, economists warn. Budget fallout: bit.ly/4vmz5QI
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Its funny how the implicit assumption is the rest of the developed world are doing it wrong and only Australia is getting migration levels right.
Because we simply cant function with things any other way, or so some claim.
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@KotsoMr Advertised.
We arent going to see this feed into the payable rents data for quite some time.
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@AvidCommentator Does your analysis rely on rents advertised or agreed to?
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Is Australian rental growth high? Yes
Is it much higher than during 2025? Yes
Is it higher than prior to the federal budget? No
The YoY growth rate at a national level is 0.4% lower than pre-budget and the same at a capital city average level.
Chart data: SQM Research
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@TMFScottP Well said mate.
Frankly even if a trade off is being deliberately made then the public has a right to know and be told.
Instead of the current approach which is driving all sorts of division and misplaced blame.
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100% correct.
Yes, slower population growth would have negatives.
But not more negative than unaffordable and unavailable housing.
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator
So cut migration dramatically. Folks need to stop pretending this isnt a solution to this issue.
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@matt_barrie It's significantly worse if population composition is adjusted for.
GDP per capita rises by itself as children are replaced as a proportion of the population by working age adults.
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The Australian economy is cactus
It's just a voter importation machine blowing a housing bubble that's maxed out household debt
The implosion is going to be catastrophic
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@AvidCommentator I truly cannot understand how people think 1% immigration per year + 3 million temporary visas aren’t the cause of this catastrophe.
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My theory is for a long time there have been those within both sides of politics who consider wins at the ballot box for their side as wins for the country, when in actual fact the data shows a deteriorating growth path for the last ~15 years.
Longer by some metrics.
The Australian@australian
Three PMs in nine years had policy wins facing new challenges but Australia did not deliver its potential under a badly divided Liberal Party. Book extract: bit.ly/4vSgJbb
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@QBCCIntegrity Sure, I can do that.
I've got asking rents data back to 2005, so I can do it from there.
Leave it with me, a project for next week.
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@AvidCommentator Can you do average annualised rental growth per government?
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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweetledi
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweetledi
That is not enough lag for the proprietary models to be comfortable let alone optimistic. The vast majority of business uses do not need that 4 months.
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Household formation is a significant unsung factor because it changes the denominator.
With upward pressure seen on adults per household in the latest NHSAC report despite a rising proportion of single person households, that suggests household formation has taken a hit.
As did the NHSAC commentary on more adults banding together or staying home longer to secure shelter.
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@AvidCommentator @DrCameronMurray Don’t think it comes down to household formation FHB loans numbers have been pretty strong of late.
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I've been predicting another slight rise in homeownership in the 2026 census - 66 point something.
I am more confident that this prediction will hold in Victoria than in other states.
But we won't see a big decline in homeownership like we saw from the 2011 to 2016 census
Cameron Murray@DrCameronMurray
ABS media release today shows slight uptick in homeownership to 66.0%. Just like I predicted. “When the data comes out, it will show a slight uptick in the homeownership rate compared to the 65.4% from the 2016 census.”
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Its always the same failed solution isn't it.
Michael Brown@MrMBrown
Stop trying to solve supply-side issues with demand-side solutions FFS
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Rental growth has further accelerated in some locales, but that was already in train before the budget.
In the combined capitals rental growth is +6.9% YoY, the same as it was in the final SQM monthly snapshot prior to the budget.
Nationally growth is down slightly 6.9% vs 7.3% in May.
Sydney is up 7.9% vs 7.3% in May.
Perth is up 6.1% vs 6.3% in May.
At this stage its in the myth category in my view.
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