Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺

My latest full length video with @DFA_Analyst is now live. In it we cover in detail the impact of the war in Iran, examine the role of the Strait of Hormuz and alternative pathways for Middle East oil. youtu.be/ALENWpLBOxU?t=…

"Car manufacturers have a role to play in making sure the vehicles they sell are more secure." Victorian Police Minister

Young people getting screwed out of a house and a prosperous future, and older people benefitting handsomely from it an aggregate level...

@JoshuaD26664236 People asked the question, so I provided the answer.

@AvidCommentator Why wouldn’t it be?

Old mate filling up a giant tank with diesel at the servo.... Apparently over 2 grands worth... Source: reddit.com/r/AbsoluteUnit…

@StuddertNatalie @DukeOfDialogue Apparently yes according to Grok. The regulations around the transportation of diesel are significantly more relaxed than those around petrol in NSW.

@AvidCommentator @DukeOfDialogue Is that even legal?

@mercoglianos @atrupar The leader of what was the Syrian offshoot of Al-Qaeda is now the President of Syria. He also controls part of the Syrian oil fields. So by that logic Al-Qaeda has oil.

@atrupar Bessent wants to un-sanction Russian and Iranian oil! Does Al Qaeda have oil?

Bessent: "We unsanctioned Russian oil ... in the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water"

@AvidCommentator 25-30 years business schools were all about copying Toyota's "just in time" approach (I remember those 'lessons very well'), which somehow got translated to maximise returns by removing resilience. And here we are...

As the world comes to terms with the entirely predictable fallout of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a thought. This is a fraction of the turmoil the world would experience if China and the U.S + Japan went to war over Taiwan. Building resilient supply chains and frankly a resilient civilization is costly and hard, but the choice is rely on China and potentially get bushwhacked by a major crisis or spend big on being self reliant.

Somewhere in North Korea, Kim Jong-Un is having a smoke and watching March Madness on his TV and thinking, I'm really glad I have nuclear weapons.

@investingLive_ What do you know I already have a Falcon, I'm half way prepared 😛

If dramatically more Middle East energy production infrastructure get's destroyed, one wonders how supply arrangements will evolve. Would it be purely about top dollar or would it come down to alliances. If you are my friend you get what you need, if you are not....

@Mayhem4Markets I'm more of a bag of snakes and in the Thames kinda guy.

We need to do this here.

@lanceWhitford Nah, it's a bit of a dead zone in terms of main road servos.

@AvidCommentator Was there another servo across the road with long lines and prices jacked up?

I had a meeting today in the North of Sydney and I drove past a servo that had completely ran out of petrol and diesel. The price board was blacked out and the plastic signs were on the pump telling folks. A strange sight in the middle of a major city.

@tax_oz Indeed, I tweeted about it last night, its about 36 hours worth of fuel. A welcome development.

@AvidCommentator Did you see this Tarric?

Australia is in deep deep trouble with its fuel supplies. Not that low stock levels is anything new.

This raises a question for the Trump administration and the world. Does the U.S potentially strike at the Iranian held Persian Gulf Islands with the USS Tripoli and her marines or wait for double the amphibious assault capability to arrive in about 3 weeks?

An absolute master-class in damage control saving the ship.

Aussie 2y yields up 10bps this morning to 4.72%. Yield on 10s the highest since 2011. OIS sees a May hike as 72% probability. 70bps worth of higher cash rate now priced into the curve, which is bear-flattening rapidly.

Yep this is pretty much the short term future