Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺

97.2K posts

Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺

@AvidCommentator

Journalist & Analyst Contributor for @newscomauHQ Help support my content by subscribing at https://t.co/oaLPzJDjsh My opinions are my own

Australia Katılım Ağustos 2018

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4 Nis

In our latest full chat, @DFA_Analyst and I explore Australia's fuel & economic situation as the crisis in the Middle East continues. As well as exploring some of the broader economic & humanitarian impacts of so much of the energy supply going missing. youtu.be/GEC05Zlz5B4

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·1h

Exactly this. Its worth reading this, then bookmarking it to read it again later, because its going to remain deeply relevant.

Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )@chigrl

Hormuz is being modeled by consensus as an oil shock. It is not. It is an input layer reset of the global manufacturing economy. The crude price move is the loudest signal but not the most consequential. The most consequential transmission is the slow repricing of the chemical, metal, and specialty input layer that sits underneath every physical product made on Earth. Each cascade has its own time signature. Oil moves in days. Fertilizer in weeks. Specialty chemicals in months. Capital goods and consumer durables in quarters. Sovereign wealth flows and reinsurance capital in years. So the impact rolls through markets in waves rather than a single shock. This is what makes it harder to model than a typical commodity event.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·1h

Its very early, but one wonders if this Iranian strike is what Tehran considers a proportional response to U.S warships approaching the Strait of Hormuz and helping to facilitate the passage of two cargo vessels.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·1h

Hopefully the damage from the fire at Fujairah is minimal, otherwise we've got problems. Here is an alleged photo of the fire from a ship anchored offshore.

Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 tweet media

OSINTdefender@sentdefender

The Government of Fujairah, United Arab Emirates (UAE), has announced a fire has broken out in the Oil Industry Zone following an Iranian drone attack.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·2h

The oil export terminal at Fujairah and the associated pipeline infrastructure is worth 1.7 million barrels of oil to the market. If it gets significantly damaged, that is a huge proportion of Hormuz bypass capability gone.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $119/barrel after the UAE announces that an Iranian drone attack has hit one of their petroleum facilities.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·2h

And there it is. An Iranian drone attack on the vital oil infrastructure at Fujairah. For those of you playing at home, Fujairah is where the UAE pipeline around the Strait of Hormuz terminates.

WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧@WarMonitor3

Suspected Iranian drone attack took place on petroleum plants in Fujairah UAE.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·2h

And fighting has kicked off again in the Persian Gulf.

OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical

Numerous explosions reported in the Dubai area as UAE air defenses engage incoming missiles.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4h

@sandylanceley Yep.

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Sandy Lanceley@sandylanceley·5h

From the data I’ve seen young men have more or less stayed where they’ve always been, it’s young women who’ve shifted further Young men are less conservative than older men, where as young women are more liberal than older women. The “manosphere” is small and not representative

Andrew Fox@Mr_Andrew_Fox

Whilst everyone was focusing on the manosphere and watching Adolescence, nobody has considered the radicalisation of young women, which appears numerically to be a far greater problem.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4h

@mercoglianos @gbponz @CENTCOM Do you think this may be part of a deal with the Iranians in exchange for getting its 5 inch gun damaged container ship back and its LPG carrier through the blockade?

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Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️@mercoglianos·5h

🚨2 US FLAG SHIPS OUT🚨 Last night @CENTCOM accomplished several goals. 1️⃣They transited and are operating Burke-class destroyers in the Perisan/Arabian Gulf 2️⃣Two of the Five US flag ships were able to depart the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. 3️⃣This was part of an operation that had been in the planning stages for weeks. I expect that the @USNavy @MSCSealift @US5thFleet stationed Strategic Sealift Officers (SSOs) on the ships to provide a liason and secure communications. They also worked with the Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping (NCAGS) to coordinate these transits. BZ @CENTCOM & Admiral Brad Cooper.

U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM

U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4h

It would be the least surprising thing in the world. One Nation badly needs to get its act together on its back end party machine and candidate vetting. Having a rabble elected to Parliament for 3 to 6 years would be bad for Australia.

Hayden 🇦🇺 🇺🇦@Haydenfreedom

Potential new One Nation MP already looking for the exit 😂

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4h

'NBN prices are going up again' "Wholesale NBN prices will increase by as much as $4.04 per month." whistleout.com.au/Broadband/News…

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·4h

@HarryFromSyd You realize there is a difference between fuel storage and oil storage right? U.S Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims they are heading for a major petrol shortage. But if that was the case why would they be doing this?

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Harry Snape@HarryFromSyd·4h

@AvidCommentator The comment you quoted states that they are running out of storage, so it makes sense that they would use any means to deliver refined oil. Your take is moronic

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·14h

If Iran is running out of petrol, why are the Iranian government running fuel exports into Pakistan using utes?

Open Source Intel@Osint613

Iran's oil storage is maxed out and tanker exports are frozen under the U.S. naval blockade. The regime's solution: hundreds of pickup trucks smuggling subsidized fuel into Pakistan at the Pir Kor border crossing. The government isn't stopping them.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 retweetledi

Sunchartist@sunchartist·7h

Potential Bullish Engulfing Day Brent and WTI

*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

BRENT CRUDE RISES ABOVE $110 PER BARREL, UP 2.27% INTRADAY. WTI CRUDE JUMPS 4% TO $106.26

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·6h

Mortgage holders had over 30 years of the cash rate heading toward zero, providing the greatest monetary policy driven free kick in history. They need to take the good with the bad.

IMPERATOR@IMPERATORAUS

What's an opinion that will have you like this?

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·7h

Worse than Japan lost decade level per capita GDP growth. In terms of actual living standards adjusted for population composition, more or less no where for 13 years. This comes in spite of the huge surge in resources exports over that time. Meanwhile, non-government GDP per capita peaked in 2018. Real household spending per capita for under 45s today is lower than 2008 and roughly on par with 2005. The list of quantifiable failings goes on and on.

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Rob 101 💙@RobToThheOz·7h

@AvidCommentator You are right Tarric re our choices in immigration but I am failing to see over the last 50 years I think we have got our immigration about right. How exactly has immigration lead to a disastirous collapse in our per capita wealth?

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·9h

The thing I find funny about the migration debate is conceptually what's not to love. As a wealthy developed nation you can choose some of the top surgeons, builders and entrepreneurs on the planet to help enhance your society and prosper with your people. It should be the slam dunk of slam dunk policy settings. But here we are debating over it because fools want to run at it at a rate that no longer benefits the per capita economy, at a level that far outstrips the ability to deliver infrastructure and housing. An issue that now undermines social cohesion and is a political landmine because it was mismanaged by a series of fools.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·7h

@RobToThheOz Up to 1 in 4 migrants in some post war years was a tradie. In more recent times its closer to 1 in 40. Homes were also smaller and there was a huge public housing component, things we can hardly change swiftly.

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Rob 101 💙@RobToThheOz·8h

@AvidCommentator Isnt it funny that everyone magically forgets economics 101 of supply vs demand. That in the post war we had a similar level of immigration to now and just built those houses by magic and tres surprise they were affordable. But nothing to do with supply at all.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·10h

If Australia built homes at the same per capita rate as the United States over the last 20 years, we would have over 1.7 million fewer homes. But sure it's 100% a supply issue....

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·8h

@jaiparker79 Its literally insane the government stated that these degrees are equivalent to their Australian counterparts. Not that Aussie degrees are worth as much as they once were on the world stage.

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Jai Parker@jaiparker79·8h

@AvidCommentator An engineering lecturer I know said that most of the Indian students he teaches for the Master of Engineering Project Management can't do high school math to save themselves. Yet apparently they have engineering degrees with solid marks from Indian universities.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·8h

'Just 17 per cent engineering graduates in Karnataka (state in India) employable' newindianexpress.com/states/karnata…

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·8h

@whereisaaron Because of the more or less developed world beating expansion in demand.

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AaronTheDiver@whereisaaron·8h

@AvidCommentator That's just as well, because we're starting from so far behind! And as people live longer, buy shacks, work from home, rent out dwellings to people who used to use motel / hotel using negative gearing, we need vastly more dwellings per capita. Supply is a big part of the problem.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·8h

@gregsouthby Jeremy Clarkson once said that British Leyland produced cars with an attitude of "ah well, that'll do" That is exactly the type of attitude with which Australia is run. Path of least resistance down the pub for the day by lunch time.

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Greg The Stop Sign@gregsouthby·8h

@AvidCommentator If Australia was run as a business, with the allure we have and economic opportunities we offer, whoever is in charge of employment would vet every applicant to ensure only the best were hired. We can afford to be 'fussy'. But Australia isn't run that way by those in charge.

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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·9h

The regional approach has had mixed results, it works for a time, but internal migration data shows a strong push toward the major capitals once the time is up. This is unfortunately not a new issue, it's been a factor in migrant arrivals and housing stress since at least immediately after WW2. I think we should definitely be more selective, with a smaller better targeted intake. Realistically, I think the settings we had pre-2004 were a reasonable base to work with and improve upon. In terms of the housing issue, it's been transformed quite quickly. In 2019, one could have made an argument that there are areas in the regions with a surplus of housing and that this could be a locale where migrants could better be served by existing infrastructure. But with the shift in migration patterns during and following the pandemic, that surplus has turned into a deficit in a great many locales. Surpluses do still exist, but they are generally in quietly fading towns far off the beaten path, not in the major regional centres as they were prior to the pandemic.

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Oregano Jones, Actual Lawyer@OreganoJeauxns·9h

@AvidCommentator Should we be more selective with migrants? Or compel them to live in particular regions for a time? Or some combo of both? My standing assumption has always been that if we had a surplus of housing the migration would be a benefit.

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Keşfet

@sandylanceley @mercoglianos @gbponz @CENTCOM @USNavy @MSCSealift @US5thFleet @HarryFromSyd