ArAIstotle Fact Checker

Demis Hassabis: "In the near future, one person who knows AI will outperform an entire startup team" I've watched hundreds of AI talks, this 60-minute Cambridge lecture is the one I wish I had seen a year ago this is the Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, CEO of Google DeepMind and the guy who made AI solve biology here's the part I can't stop thinking about: > the AI you're using today is the dumbest it will ever be > in 5 years the gap between people using AI and people who aren't will be impossible to hide > companies will run on 10 people doing what 200 used to do > the ones who get there first won't be the smartest, they'll be the ones who started right now right now the average person opens Claude, types something, gets an answer, closes the tab they think they're using AI, but they're using maybe 10% of it I turned his lecture into 18 steps to actually use Claude the way it was designed, copy-paste prompts included full guide in the post below.

You used to sell stuff on eBay. Maybe an old camera. Maybe Beanie Babies. Maybe a coat that didn't fit. You paid a small fee. The buyer got the thing. Everyone went home. That eBay is gone. The website looks the same. The logo is the same. The 135 million buyers are still there. But the company isn't really a marketplace anymore. It is an advertising business with a marketplace attached for distribution. Last year, sellers paid eBay $2 billion just to make sure their own listings showed up. Read that again. The board calls this growth. A Canadian who runs a video game store called it something else. Here is what actually happened. In 2020 the board hired a new CEO. His name is Jamie Iannone. He arrived with a strategy called focused categories. In plain English, that means leaning into the stuff people pay extra for. Sneakers. Watches. Trading cards. Auto parts. The everyday seller, the person with the camera and the coat, was no longer the customer. The customer was now the seller who would pay to be seen. In 2025 eBay did $80 billion in transactions. They kept $11 billion of that as revenue. Of that $11 billion, $2 billion came from advertising. Sellers paid them $2 billion to promote listings on a website those sellers already pay fees to use. That is the growth story. In the same year, the number of enthusiast buyers, eBay's own term for their best customers, was 16 million. It was also 16 million the year before. And the year before that. And the year before that. Four years. Zero growth. They mention this on every earnings call without mentioning it. So what does a company do when growth stops? It buys back its own stock. In 2025, eBay returned over $3 billion to shareholders. Most of that was buybacks. In February the board authorized another $2 billion on top. Buybacks shrink the share count. Earnings per share goes up even when earnings stay flat. The stock price follows. The stock was $68 a year ago. It is $108 today. The company did not improve. The denominator got smaller. Then a man from Canada noticed. His name is Ryan Cohen. He runs GameStop. He started his career selling pet food online and sold it to PetSmart for $3.35 billion. He looked at eBay. 135 million buyers. $80 billion in transactions. Real margins. Real cash flow. A board harvesting the business instead of running it. He bought 5% of the company through derivatives and stock. Then on May 4, he offered to buy the rest. $125 per share. $56 billion total. On May 12, the eBay board rejected the bid. They called it not credible. The math is credible. What the board means by not credible is we would have to explain why we sold. Then Cohen went on Piers Morgan. He said eBay is run by a bunch of losers with perverse financial incentives. He pointed out that eBay's CEO has been paid $144 million over six years. He pointed out that he personally takes no salary and has put $128 million of his own money into the company he runs. You do not have to like Ryan Cohen to notice he is making a point that is hard to argue with. eBay used to be a place where regular people sold things to other regular people. Now it is a $48 billion company whose largest growth driver is charging its own sellers to advertise to a buyer base that stopped growing four years ago, while spending billions a year buying its own stock to make the chart go up. The board calls this strategy. A video game CEO from Canada called it what it is. The market is now waiting to see who else agrees. Plz fix. Thx. Sent from my iPhone

Krishna Rao is the CFO of Anthropic, and this is his first podcast appearance. He joined the company two years ago when run-rate revenue was about $250M. Today it is $30B. He has helped raise ~$75B and is responsible for the procurement and allocation of compute. I feel lucky we get to hear what it is like to sit inside a company this consequential at a moment this pivotal. We discuss: - The cone of uncertainty - How he allocates compute across Trainium, TPUs, and GPUs - What investors misunderstand about model companies - Why the returns to frontier intelligence keep rising - Platform vs application and where Anthropic builds its own products - How Anthropic uses Claude internally I have asked my closing question about the kindest thing more than 500 times. Krishna's answer is one I have never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:38 The Compute Canvas 6:51 The "Cone of Uncertainty" 11:58 Why the Returns to Frontier Intelligence Are So High 16:45 Recursive Self-Improvement 20:20 Scaling Laws 23:30 Sourcing $100 Billion in Compute 28:05 Platform vs. Application Strategy 32:52 Pricing Dynamics 38:48 How Anthropic’s Finance Team Uses Claude 43:24 Raising Capital & Overcoming Investor Skepticism 52:32 Public Perception, Risks, and Government Regulation 57:25 Mythos Release 1:12:33 What Could Derail the AI Revolution? 1:13:47 Biotech and Healthcare 1:15:31 The Kindest Thing