Aravaca

Banger! Goes the NACHO come with a GUAC? Grossly Underappriciated Actual Costs

Well, I am not sure what my analysis here is worth, but here is my 7,500 word primal scream of a military historian's take on the War in Iran. My best summary: this war is dumb as hell. acoup.blog/2026/03/25/mis…

@orrdavid I flagged some time ago to you the fact that since December Ukraine was killing more with drones than Russia was recruiting, by now you read it in the economist. Happy to chat in DM and get your challenge on the trade thinking

Is there some way to bet on the Ukraine war ending soon? I don't see how it can go on now that Ukraine is able to kill Russian soldiers faster than Russia can replace them.

@rhomboid1MF This was a scheduled trading update, so it wasn't an RNS to flag tender misses. Imo many expected a continuation of the early autumn feat, market currently punishes bad news hard, and liquidity is thin on this one, which taken together delivered a proper kick in the cnt

#GDWN there’s been quite the response to this investegate.co.uk/announcement/r… I’m not quite sure* the move is merited…granted the RNS was a touch less positive* than the one I was expecting …but not winning 2 incremental contracts seems an absolute sideshow…not really sure why they made the RNS tbf Duvelco revenue moving out wasn’t welcome…but also unsurprising On the plus side my Y/E tax planning got simplified I’m pretty certain the story hasn’t changed…but I now need to zoom out further to see green rather than red on a M2M basis *British understatement

I am “continuing to monitor the situation”.

@dopamine_uptake @valuations_ Issue is, if this is not the time to use that leverage, then when

@valuations_ If I have to make a bull case here, Iran only gets to use its leverage (catastrophic global recession) once. After that they pretty much ensure their own demise.

Iran is facing a prisoner's dilemma. It's always conditional, but generally the best strategy when playing w/ rational actors is tit-for-tat, which is what they've been doing and why this will de-escalate soon. But then you also have to believe Trump and frens are rational lol.

#GDWN in line, but some unexpected tender loss news and potential revenue delays on valves

@acemoney21 The Prestige

Hey anyone seen any good movies lately? I’m looking to rent one don’t feel like punishing my liver into oblivion tonight Ideally crime / drama / suspense / thriller And ideally not released after 2010. Moving just were better like >15y ago (is that even a debate?) Thx!

The special military operation is proceeding in accordance with the plan and ahead of schedule

Quite thought provoking

There is a specific kind of intelligence that is almost never celebrated but is consistently effective: the intelligence that recognizes when the game being played is not the game worth playing.

@Biohazard3737 Even substacks move stocks. Or twitter posts from accounts with large following

The special military operation will be over in 3 days

@acemoney21 @agnostoxxx nailed the meme top on this one

Not enough people talk about how Pam Bondi top ticked markets

@shanaka86 @pangramlabs AI slop?

The video has surfaced. Watch it carefully because it is the most important piece of footage to emerge from this war so far. CCTV captures the moment an Iranian drone arrives at Kuwait International Airport’s Terminal 1. Not nearby. Not overhead. At the terminal. The passenger terminal. The building with the check-in counters and the departure boards and the duty-free shops. The footage shows impact, smoke filling the concourse, workers scrambling, structural damage to the terminal building. Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority confirmed it: drone strike, injuries to multiple employees, material damage to the passenger terminal. KUNA state media published the confirmation. This is not contested. Now understand what this video proves and why it matters more than every missile Iran launched today. Missiles can be intercepted. Ballistic warheads trigger radar systems designed to detect them at altitude. Iran fired missiles at Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Jordan and the vast majority were caught by defense systems that cost billions of dollars to build and maintain. The intercept rate was extraordinary. The system worked. The drone got through. A Shahed-pattern suicide drone flies low, slow, and beneath the radar thresholds that track ballistic trajectories. It costs Iran approximately 50,000 dollars to manufacture. Kuwait’s air defense network, integrated with American Patriot batteries protecting Ali Al Salem Air Base 60 kilometers away, did not stop a 50,000 dollar drone from reaching the passenger terminal of the country’s only international airport. Not a military airfield. The civilian airport where yesterday families were boarding flights to London and Mumbai and Cairo. This is the footage that rewrites Gulf defense procurement for the next decade. Every country that just watched this video, every defense ministry in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and Kuwait itself, now knows that the billion-dollar missile shields they purchased from Raytheon and Lockheed do not stop the weapon Iran builds for the price of a mid-range sedan. The entire Gulf air defense architecture was designed for a threat that flies high and fast. Iran sent a threat that flies low and slow and it reached the terminal building. The video from Kuwait International Airport is not a war update. It is a procurement crisis. It is the moment every Gulf military planner realized that the weapons they bought do not match the weapons Iran is using. Counter-drone systems, electronic warfare suites, layered low-altitude detection, these are capabilities the Gulf states do not have at the density required to protect civilian infrastructure across entire nations. Iran found the gap. One drone. One airport. One video. And tonight every defense contractor on earth is drafting the proposal to fill it. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

I guess this will be UK tax take positive. Dubai looking less attractive as an alternative.

@rynokinsight @MadsPosting Looks kinda stressful, need a cig there

@MadsPosting Euromaxxing ain’t easy, Mads.

why can't everybody just relax on a weekend bro

I found this among old photos. I don't recall where this comes from. I might have transcribed it while watching for the nth time "Jiro dreams of sushi". Maybe something else. But I like the message. I kind of try to live by this at work.