Valuations

@Hovmester123 I agree. By TACO I just mean Trump making a big “we’re pulling out / mission accomplished, it’s over” pump that will send the market up regardless of the longer term reality.

@valuations_ Still sceptical if TACO is possible without controlling Hormuz. Iran won’t open until they get a firm deal.

A market so thirsty for good news it’s bouncing on Netanyahu talking his book doesn’t exactly scream capitulation.

@Hovmester123 A lot of noisy price action w/ FOMC and OpEx but seems like the claim about Iran’s nuclear being wiped out is teeing up a weekend TACO. I’m still hoping for better prices on the long side but not pressing shorts here personally.

@valuations_ Need an updated orange swan blog for the weekend

@bucketshopcap Claude has jokes

Not so much 3D cHeSS but more like 6D retardation

@OnodaCapital Feels like we need a crescendo with indices all down 3% on the day for peak doomsday FinTwit contra signal. Just not sure it’s possible with so much hedging. But feels close.

Damn I feel uneasy about markets but the contras are out in massive force right now

We had a good thing, you stupid son of a bitch. We had an AI super cycle. We had deflationary growth. You could've shut your mouth, grifted, and made as much money as you ever needed. It was perfect. But no. You just had to blow it up. You. And your pride and your ego.

My son threw up on me yesterday. Top is in.

It’s hard to crash when everyone is wearing a seatbelt and driving the speed limit. Orange Swan - Oil Spill open.substack.com/pub/valuations…

“Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” he said, adding that any terms will have to be “very solid.” On Saturday, the president said that “the only power they have, and it’s a power that can be closed off relatively quickly, is the power of dropping a mine or shooting a relatively short-range missile. But when we get finished with the shoreline, they’re not going to have that power either.” He added later: “We’ve knocked out most of their missiles. We’ve knocked out most of their drones. We knocked out their manufacturing of missiles and drones, largely. Within two days, it’ll be totally decimated.” Over in two days but also they need allies to send warships to help secure the strait.. I'm sure he wants to wrap it up quickly but I don't think he can leave it in the current state without pissing off GCC. And Israel still planning on regime change.

@DanielSingerS @valuations_ I understand your interpretation of it. I think they’re both fair ways to think of it.

@DanielSingerS @duedillengence Also need to convince Israel to leave for the strait to reopen. Trump talking out of both sides of his mouth, but seems clear that 1. They aren’t leaving soon and 2. It’s not going well.

@duedillengence @valuations_ When you say he's going to TACO, what do you envision? I don't really understand how we just stop attacking and leave and hope for them to be okay with that?

@tk_financial Yeah just seems like willful ignorance at this point to not see it and I’m pretty cynical and a late adopter of most tech.

@valuations_ The efficiency gains of “summarize a PDF and make a template” are huge for a decent swath of white collar workers.

@blondesnmoney Bottom ticked it

Man as soon as everyone (including myself) made fun of the dollar it just murdered the shorts

@WaterworldCapi1 That’s when he feels it in his plums. Bones is Dow at 40K.

@RodAlzmann No. But the acceleration of race to the bottom pricing in combio w/ Google and Meta taking $MAPS customers is an existential threat. Excise taxes will still be substantial, 280E alone is a lifeline not miracle. Notice that $MSOS is flat since the official resched announcement.

New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2

@RodAlzmann Top line in decline and clients churning. Likely to get worse post-rescheduling not better. "...continued industry challenges, such as price deflation and ongoing consolidation. In addition, new clients acquired across certain markets had lower levels of average spend."

Substack: open.substack.com/pub/rodalzmann… Disclosure: I beneficially own well in excess of 1,000,000 $MAPS shares inclusive of derivatives, may buy or sell at any time, am acting independently, and this is not investment advice or a proxy solicitation. Full disclaimers in the post. 2/2

@FlavortownInv @JBierne Not sure $MSFT wants to tank their stock even further right now.

@valuations_ @JBierne $MSFT should jsut buy them

@MrMojoRisinX All fair points. $ADBE is still a cash machine. With the right vision it's the AI distributor not the disrupted. New CEO has to demonstrate AI will expand ARPU. Needs a good storyteller. Nothing is clear, but everyone also thought $MSFT terminal value was impaired post i-phone.

I was involved in $MSFT between 2012-2018. Let's just say it wasn't exactly passive investment... $MSFT needed a culture shock (board/ceo shake up and some CFO coaching...) and to stop the unforced errors. The numbers were going to inflect either way. Terminal value was never the question. $ADBE already had its transformation, an activist-led one. That was ~15 years ago. $ADBE today? Direction of numbers is genuinely unclear. The PE is statistically cheap for a reason. And the CEO just got shown the door. I know something about $ADBE too. Not saying the stock won't bounce, but these are not the same story.

@MrMojoRisinX @JBierne Ubiquitous ecosystem, deeply entrenched enterprise customers, gold-standard tools. There's a lot of similarities, doesn't mean it will be the same outcome for the stock or that Adobe is going to become a hyperscaler.

@valuations_ @JBierne They are nothing alike (was very involved in Softy during that transitional and transformational period).