Arb

Personal news: I'm leaving my current startup role, looking to figure out what's next. I'm interested in making AI go well, and open to a variety of options for doing so. I have 10+ years of quant research and technical management experience, based in London. DM if interested.

Some thoughts on AI and mathematics, inspired by "First Proof."

amazing post, totally overlooked. Mark's sheer patience probably got him an early look at Gemini 3. One of the only evals I buy is "world expert (here, in palaeography, reading cursed old handwriting) does a stress test and is very impressed"

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next three years—they’ll provide precise, falsifiable forecasts on the trajectory of AI capabilities, adoption, and impact. Our results cover where experts predict major effects of AI, where they expect less progress than AI industry leaders, and where they disagree. LEAP experts forecast major effects of AI by 2030, including: ⚡ 7x increase in AI’s share of U.S. electricity use (1% -> 7%) 🖥️ 9x increase in AI-assisted work hours (2% -> 18%) By 2040, experts predict: 👥30% of adults will use AI for companionship daily 🏆60% chance that AI will solve or substantially assist in solving a Millennium Prize Problem 🚂32% chance that AI will have been at least as impactful as a "technology of the millennium," like the printing press or the Industrial Revolution. 🧵Read on for more insights and results