Shubham Dixit

Here’s a slide (1 of our 3 main theses) from an $ONDS pitch that a peer and I drafted out Core idea: > Large global events (World Cup, summits, etc.) act as entry points for Ondas to deploy drone security systems, which then convert into long-term, recurring revenue How it works: > Events require high-security, temporary aerial monitoring = Ondas wins contracts > These deployments transition into permanent infrastructure (airports, data centers, borders) > Leads to recurring revenue from software, analytics, maintenance, and upgrades Why it’s attractive: > High attachment rate (~90%): most deployments convert to ongoing services > Follow-on contracts grow (1.4x multiplier) > Recurring revenue mix scales (~30% of total), driving more stable, higher-quality earnings @CeoOndas @BlackPantherCap @YoYInvestor @moninvestor @KawzInvests @jiahanjimliu @BMSInvests @ive_m5 @retail_mourinho

HF BONUS 101: *with all these payout posts on “revenue”… let me contextualize the multi strats for you JS is its own animal. But the multis (Citadel, Millennium, P72, BAM, Exodus, Schonfeld) all run the same flavor of comp. Siloed pods…eat what you kill payouts can run 12-25% of P&L depending on what your PM negotiated and what platform you’re on. Smaller shops quote 20%+ to pull talent. Sidenote… a lot of these “signing bonuses” you see in articles are actually loans against future comp this can be clawed back… but that’s for another post. stuff people get wrong: it’s NET P&L, not gross. Financing, borrow, Bloomberg, data, salaries, seat costs, overhead… all netted before payout. A pod doing $50M gross might pass through $15M before anyone sees a check the PM controls the splits inside the pod. If the team is on 18% and the PM runs a 6 person book, he decides what everyone gets. No formula. Some are generous. Plenty keep 70%+ and treat analysts as fungible. Biggest variable in your actual comp and nobody talks about it in interviews… get it in writing. Netting across sub sectors is real inside a team…make sure you understand! high water marks are real. Down 8% one year, you make it back before the clock restarts. Some platforms reset HWM if you get rehired elsewhere internally, some don’t. Ask 100%. deferrals. USUALLY 50% of your bonus above some threshold gets deferred 3 years and only vests if you stay. How they keep you from walking after a big year. Leave early, you eat the unvested portion unless your next shop buys you out. IF You lose money in year 2… it gets netted against deferred with no recourse. Tough. the drawdown trigger is the scary part. Most pods have a stop loss, usually 3-5% of budget, sometimes 7-10%. Hit it and you’re done. Pod cut, team fired, capital reallocated. Doesn’t matter how good your 3 year track record is. This is why a 20% payout sounds rich until … yea a senior analyst on a good pod clearing $1-3M in a normal year is realistic. PMs running their own book can do $5-20M+ in a strong year. Top decile PMs at the big shops are printing numbers that would surprise you. Flip side, median PM tenure at these places is 2-3 yrs and a real chunk of pods blow up every cycle (think NFL career length) Overall… everything is negotiable, it’s opaque, clawbacks suck, and a hard way to make an easy living

Spirit Airlines died tonight at the hands of the socialist crusader, Elizabeth Warren She must be so proud to add another casket to her achievements. Tonight at 3am, Spirit turns off the lights. 14,000 jobs gone. 30+ smaller airports lose service. JetBlue offered $3.8 BILLION in cash to buy Spirit in 2022. Shareholders, flight attendants union, literally everyone voted yes. The combined company would have held 9% of the US market against a Big 4 that already owned 80%. For anyone who understands numbers: 9% isn’t a monopoly against 80%. Warren said no. She wrote letters. She pressured Buttigieg. Biden’s DOJ sued. A federal judge killed the deal in January 2024. Her argument: the merger would cost consumers $1 billion a year. Now look at her collateral damage she dusts under the rug. 510 pilots gone in the months after. 1,800 flight attendants furloughed in December. 14,000 jobs in 2023. 7,500 last week. Zero tonight. And that’s just the people in Spirit uniforms. Catering goes. Fuel guys go. Baggage crews, gate agents, airport coffee shops, hotels and rental cars in 70 cities Spirit flew to. Every airline job carries 3 more on its back. 40,000 people out of work because of one woman’s moronic crusade against the market. And the math ain’t mathing. Spirit abandoned 90 routes during the death spiral. Fares on those routes are up 14% on average. Oakland to Newark: $135 to $288. Fort Myers to San Juan: $92 to $219. Kansas City to Newark up 66%. That’s reality. Not some BS number from a “study.” So @SenWarren tell me how this saves the consumer money? Cheap carriers in a market drop fares 21% across the board. Southwest did this in the 90s and saved Americans $68 BILLION over 20 years. Warren killed it. That’s what moronic politicians led by socialism do. Then with her own blind arrogance, she tweeted Spirit’s collapse is “a Biden win for flyers.” A win. 14,000 people are reading termination letters tonight. And she’s taking credit. This is socialism in 2026. A senator who’s never made payroll thinks she knows how to run a market better than the people who own and work in the company. She saved you a billion on imaginary paper. She cost you ten times that in real life. She didn’t protect consumers from anything. 14,000+ will go from working to welfare. She will make sure to blame billionaires, hardworking tax payers, AI, capitalism and whatever monster they will make up tomorrow hiding under your bed. Higher taxes. Fewer jobs. More expensive everything. She called it a win. I hope you enjoy winning.

@jukan05 the market’s pricing this like structural FCF compression, but if AI spend earns above WACC, intrinsic value increases despite lower near-term payouts imo buybacks are only valuable if you don’t have better uses of capital

I’m not a bear, but I think we have to acknowledge that the market is starting to price in a world where Big Tech becomes less attractive because AI investment forces them to dramatically cut back on shareholder returns such as buybacks and dividends.

Sheer insanity. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta collectively are spending more money than the Manhattan Project *every single month*. More than 12x the Manhattan Project every year. And what they have got to show for it? None are making major profits on AI; none has a technical moat; a massive price war is inevitable. And few of their customers are seeing major returns on investment. Greatest capital misallocation in history.

if you own $BE, you've either never touched a financial model in your life or you're on a generational shrooms trip in all seriousness, it's just the @leopoldasch effect lol

@SixSigmaCapital the reality is that it sits in the same bucket as SIFI banks - too embedded in the system to fail cleanly like ffs, the company underwrites global ad liquidity and cloud infra lol

I remember the "thought leaders" on this platform hating on $GOOGL when it was 130 & writing 20 page articles/novels about how it was done. Back slapping each other. Anything could happen to the stock but the numbers don't lie. What a turn around by $GOOGL

Interesting that a shortage suddenly “unlocks” an extra year of useful life Maybe I'm not getting something here, but it makes you wonder how much of prior capex cycles were driven by convenience vs true technical limits!

@jukan05 Called out @aleabitoreddit for their BS and got blocked - my biggest achievement on X

I don’t have any position in $POET, and I never have, but this company is honestly ridiculous. They had already been notified by Marvell on the 23rd that the contract was being terminated, yet they sat on it until today? What about the shareholders who bought in while the stock was rising in the meantime? You deserve to be sued by your shareholders.

@dadele2nd @aleabitoreddit $POET's management was paying YouTubers to pump the stock a couple of years back... If you don't conduct basic DD on management, you're uneducated and shouldn't be in the markets

@ArchegosIntern @aleabitoreddit How do you predict a cfo violating a confidentiality agreement, Jesus Christ, hold a gun to a man's head for not being able mind read and predict company c-suite adhere to their non public contracts fine print...

$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry. Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk. On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story) It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this. That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.

@Skydiazs @BitcoinAIGuy @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit Yes.

@BitcoinAIGuy @ArchegosIntern @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit Is the CEO breaching a NDA a risk you assume on the stocks you buy?

@gg6x9m13h4 @BitcoinAIGuy @piyush1337 @Skydiazs @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit 1) You do realize that a couple of years back, $POET was paying YouTubers to pump the stock up... 2) Someone as established and "educated" as @aleabitoreddit (200k+ followers... somehow) shouldn't be pumping dogshit just for their followers to blindly throw money at

@BitcoinAIGuy @piyush1337 @Skydiazs @ArchegosIntern @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit I mean yes he was wrong, but naively wrong?

@Skydiazs @BitcoinAIGuy @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit 1) It was the CFO, not the CEO (let's inform ourselves before commenting) 2) I expect those who have 200k+ followers not to pump piles of dogshit (such as $POET)

@BitcoinAIGuy @ArchegosIntern @jukan05 @aleabitoreddit Did you expect the CEO to breach a NDA?

@nishantkumar07 So independent funds are basically pre-absorption pods now?

MEGA EXCLUSIVE: Jain Global to Return Cash, Exclusively Manage Millennium Money

yeah yeah we love $INTC we love $LITE we love the new bottlenecks that are announced every other day but we love $FIX the most (only a matter of time until everyone hops on)

Intel interview with both Lip Bu Tan and CFO Dave Zinsner: Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan: "There is huge demand," Lip Bu Tan said of the CPU market. "We are working very hard with our team to make sure we deliver, that we meet that demand but we are still short because the demand keeps increasing from the customers." "Our foundry, we are working really hard on it. We see more than 7% yield improvement per month, and right now, we are seeing the yield is supposed to be, anticipated the same number in end of the year, so we are way ahead of our schedule." MUSK/TERAFAB "we are super excited about working with Elon Musk and we have very regular meetings. He and I, we share the same vision that the whole global semiconductor supply did not keep pace with the rapid acceleration in demand. We are really looking forward to working with him in terms of process technology and improve the manufacturing efficiency and move more manufacturing the US." CFO DAVE ZINSNER: "Most of the client customers have been accumulating memory. For the first half of the year I think they are in pretty good shape with regards to their memory. I do think as it gets in to the back half of the year it does start getting challenging and they'll start incurring the spot costs of procuring memory which makes it more challenging. We do see the client market declining half on half because of that." "We have so much demand for CPUs on the data center side so we have been consciously moving supply in to data center side to meet that demand. In a lot of respects that's actually a good problem."

Intel cited rising substrate, T-glass, and memory costs as headwinds to gross margin in the second half of the year.

@firstadopter it's important to recognize that these trades usually have a finite time horizon - no one is claiming that these are generational, value stocks

This era of buying small cap stocks simply because investors discover a company is a supplier to another company in a hot product area won't last. Long term fundamentals, moat durability, and competitive analysis matter. Look at what happened to PortalPlayer and many other supplier companies.

After seeing this $GOOGL announcement, I guess @McKinsey is in a rush to replace itself