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Some work news: I’m shifting focus at @TheEconomist from the British to the American economy, and moving from London to Washington.
DC suggestions—both places to eat and people to meet—eagerly requested.
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Archie Hall
3.2K posts
Archie Hall
@ArchieHall
US economics editor for @TheEconomist | Other writing at https://t.co/qPYdNidstF
DC (+ London/NY, sporadically) Katılım Şubat 2011
3.2K Takip Edilen7.8K Takipçiler
Archie Hall retweetledi
Great piece in @TheArgumentMag about how to deal with income shocks due to AI labor market effects
But one (big) problem: these solutions assume the country redistributing will have captured some gains from AI advancement. This is true for the US, but not for most of the world
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Some personal/professional news: today is my last day at the IFS. There’s nowhere else I’d rather have spent the last nine years and leaving is such a wrench. But it’s time for something new, and I’m excited to be joining The Observer as Economics Editor from 7 April.
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Archie Hall retweetledi
India's cooking gas crisis is partly a macro story about dependence on a single source. But it is also a micro story about a distribution system wide open to graft and struggling to get fuel to those who need it most: economist.com/asia/2026/03/1…
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Archie Hall retweetledi
4/ Lots more in the piece itself, which you can read here economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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3/ And, more spectulatively, if angst over electricity prices dials up another level, the already-shaky politics of America's data centre buildout could fray further.
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UNITED PETROSTATES
I look at how the oil shock will hit the US economy in @TheEconomist today—one that now exports 2/3 as much energy as Saudi Arabia.
Growth will still sag, and the poorest get squeezed. But America is well-positioned to weather the hit
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Conventional wisdom on the North Sea shifting in real time.
But here’s a bigger, and rather more contentious, question: if Britain’s plan is to expensively import American and Qatari LNG for decades, is it time to reopen the debate on fracking?
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@Frencheconomics @ArchieHall Will pass this onto the powers that be at Sky!
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Great stuff, but (and I would say this)- light on the macro. Yes, more British gas production wouldn't do loads on bills. But: (a) it would grow the economy, swell tax revenues, create jobs etc, (b) it would dampen the blow of future shocks, both on GDP and sterling. Not nothing!
Ed Conway@EdConwaySky
📽️ From Donald Trump to Britain's wind power trade body, there's a growing coalition calling for more drilling in the North Sea. Raising the question: if we DID encourage more exploration, how much oil & gas could we actually get? Our MEGA primer on the North Sea👇 Ps it's longer than usual, but it turns out this topic has SO MANY misconceptions. Time to put some of them right. Let me know what you think
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The Fed caves on productivity, and upgrades its long-run growth estimate by 0.2pp to 2%.
But, contra Warsh: Powell emphasises that it’s not a cleanly disinflationary story calling for lower rates.
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Archie Hall retweetledi
Archie Hall retweetledi
🚨NEW Conservative Reader👇
John Bew on UK decline
@MDC12345678 on energy disarmament
@ArchieHall on AI disruption
@nfergus on World War III
Christopher Beha on abundance
@jamespriceglos on Adam Smith
Dieter Helm on energy exposure
@danny__kruger on Western foundations
& more!
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Archie Hall@ArchieHall
NOT SO "K" America's "K-shaped" economy has become conventional wisdom—the idea that spending is booming for the rich and slumping for the rest, leaving growth top-heavy and precarious. One problem: as I write in @TheEconomist, it is probably wrong. 🔗: economist.com/finance-and-ec…
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Stripe internal data aligns with our read in @TheEconomist last week: the “K-shaped economy” seems like a mirage.
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi
Everyone’s talking about the K-shaped economy—the rich pulling away while everyone else stagnates. In our inaugural Stripe Economics post, I take a look at @stripe + macro data, and I see the K on Wall Street, but not yet on Main Street: • The most profitable third of US public companies now account for ~2/3 of total market cap—the highest on record. • The S&P 500 rose 16.5% in 2025, and the top 1% own ~40% of all equities. So unsurprisingly the top 1% wealth share has risen (~2pp) since 2022. • BUT, Stripe data suggest lower-income household spending has been growing faster than high-income households over the last few years. • Wages tell a similar story: real earnings at the 10th percentile grew ~0.5pp slower than the 90th since 2022, but BOTH posted positive real wage growth. • Why? 1) The wealthy hold lots of equities but only account for ~25% of consumer spending. 2) Real wages at the bottom have been supported by continued labor market tightness post-pandemic, though this may cool. Read the full post below and subscribe! stripeeconomics.substack.com/p/k-shaped-eco…
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