Miroslav Ketil/Nathaniel Tisdale

@will84ny @Gridiron_Media_ Lol

@ArmTheSharks @Gridiron_Media_ Idc what you think, I want nothing to do with another problem WR.

- Caleb Williams - Marvin Harrison - Drake Maye - Jayden Daniels - Malik Nabers - Rome Odunze - Keon Coleman - Joe Alt - Olu Fashanu The Giants are essentially guaranteed 1 of these 9 players. How could you honestly be upset with drafting any one of them. You are either getting a franchise QB, a WR1 or a franchise tackle. Elite talent everywhere.

@will84ny @Gridiron_Media_ Keon is NOT better than either of those guys.

@Gridiron_Media_ Well, with Nabers there's the gun charge, so there's that. Plus, Odunze>Keon Coleman>Malik Nabers.

@AlexCaruso bad takes inc.

My #1 Waiver Claim in Almost Every League: Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette Leonard Fournette

@DFBeanCounter yeah no one cares, qj is dust

This is an example of analysis, not game theory. Until folks meld the two together you'll always be left behind. Yes, Josh Palmer was playing ahead of Quentin Johnston at that point in time. It was a safe simple solution to simply presume that will continue on the next week, month, whatever. But game theory goes way beyond the most likely scenario and delves into a range of outcomes. What is the range of outcomes for a player heading into year 3 that has done nothing throughout his entire career to-date? It is a fairly tight window. We literally just had this exact same discussion on Gabriel Davis last year. He's not going to smash, becuase if he was going to smash he would have given some indication prior to year 3. Could he be better than he's been in the past? Of course. But the range of outcomes really narrows by that point. 10-12 ppg is likely what we would see. Gabriel Davis infamously went on to score 11.4 ppg in 2022. and through 7 games in 2023 has scored 11.2 ppg. The reason for this of course is because bad players with opportunity do not become superstars, heck they usually don't even become stars. The range of outcomes on a rookie heading into their fourth game is... the entire fucking spectrum. He could be a total bust, he could be Odell Beckham Junior. We dont know yet. That's the entire point. Further to that, we can apply game theory to fantasy football from a perspective of the Pareto Principle. If you are unfamiliar with this you may have heard of it as the 80/20 rule. Meaning 80% of the outcome comes from 20% of the input. What this means is that 80% of our results (ie. wins/losses) comes from 20% of the players. Which of course means that 10-12 ppg is virtually meaningless and unless you are making bets that can contribute to the 80% of the outcome, basically dont bother. Obviously that is extreme and if Palmer was on waivers and QJ was rostered you still should have picked up Palmer. But if given the choice between two players, we should always err to the side of upside when the cost is negligible. To go one more step further lets play through the two scenarios. You have Palmer on your team, he is currently scoring 12.6 ppg in ppr leagues. Slightly ahead of where I had suggested. It is a three game sample, it is too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about his ROS at this point. Lets do a real world example. Go through your rosters and if you dont have Palmer, tally up the your last start/sit decision for the weeks points the past three weeks. Like who is the player you would have started Palmer over if he were on your team. And if you do have Palmer on your team, did you start him? And if so, who did you elect to sit in place of him? And then take those players and tally up their ppg for the past three weeks. And then you can look at the "impact" that having Josh Palmer on your roster had. How much of a benefit did taking the "safe" play have? I looked at all three of my redraft leagues. In the first I would have started him over possibly D'onta Foreman the past two weeks, a player that has averaged 20 ppg over those weeks and Palmer would not have been in my starting lineup in week 4. So that is a net loss of 8 ppg. That of course is only one example. This team is of course ~top of the league. In another of my redraft leagues he would ahve started over Kareem Hunt who scored 15.10 points last week and he would not have started on my team in either of the two preceding weeks that he was available. So a net difference of ~3 points. This team is of course also ~top of the league. In my third redraft league he would have started over Darius Slayton and his 3.2 points this week. Last week over Jameson Williams and his 13.3 points, and in week 4 he would not have started. 8.25 ppg so we would have gotten ~4 ppg. Oh and this team is bottom of the league so 4 ppg, is not moving the needle here either. I would not even be a playoff contender with an additional 4 ppg. So in my 3 redraft leagues he would have been a net neutral to loss on my good teams and would have added ~4 ppg in the two weeks that I would have started him on my last place team. And it should be noted that I play in rather deep redraft leagues. Meaning, he really hasnt mattered... at least not so far for my team. But it's early. Lots of season left to go. And what do we know about rookie WRs? We know that they are useless early in the year, and sometimes matter in the latter half of the season. This funny little game we play has three really important weeks per year... guess which part of the year they occur in? You're correct. they take place in the second half of the season when rookies, if they matter, start to matter. And if they do not matter, simply do not matter... Just like Josh Palmer. And what do we know about bad players with projected volume? They tend to lose that volume over time. They simply aren't good enough to continue holding on to the volume that they are given. And if you do not believe me, look at all of the bad players that have ever scored 15+ ppg. *Hint: it is extremely rare. Maybe like Allen Hurns... and Hunter Renfrow... and is that the list? Like ever? 194 single seasons of 15+ ppg since 2013 and we have two bad players that have done it? Oh and Martavis Bryant. So like we are talking pretty strong liklihood that Josh Palmer gets there... obviously. (Ill post the full gamut of these players in the next tweet) BUT we have tons of instances of players having 4 or 5 game stretches of strong play. And that is becuase usually "Somebody has to catch the ball" is true to some extent... It just usually isnt the same nobody catching it the entire season. So what does that mean for our Josh Palmer touts? It means that by the time we get to those three special weeks at the end of the season when the money is actually being won, Palmer will have probably slipped into irrelevance and is either active losing you weeks or is actively doing nothing at all of consequence. And what is the downside for a first round rookie? That he is actively losing you weeks or is doing nothing at all of consequence. So, kind of sounds the same. But lets remember that the Pareto Principle is alive and well in fantasy football, so downside is really quite irrelevant. If your fantasy football strategy stops at the analysis part you are missing out on a world of game theory... Game theory is where championships are won and lost.

@WeavesFF I always knew he was Mid.

I never thought Caleb Williams was good but I'm making this public now.

@DevyEusuf @BestBallEnjoyer tell you have shit takes without telling us

@BestBallEnjoyer Tell you're under 25 without telling me you're under 25

Sam LaPorta is a JAG. Sell very high

@jacobinfante24 Who the fuuuuuck cares

SOURCE: The rumors of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce “hanging out” are true, but the context behind it is not romantic. Kelce got repeatedly shut down in recreational 1-on-1s by #Bears LB Jack Sanborn, who has been romantically tied to Swift. Sanborn, 23, knew that Kelce was a fan of Swift and told her to hang out with him to help restore his fractured ego. Sources liken Swift and Kelce hanging out to a Make-a-Wish situation. Swift remains aggressively in love with the Alpha Male Sanborn, while Sanborn remains focused on “stacking this paper”. His words, not mine.

#BoltUp please god he's the best i need it

tbh u need this ... repost #BoltUp | #EasytoCelebrate

@asportspod @_MLFootball @jacobinfante24 @davebfr @DrunkRyanPoles @dwcprodz @JosephHerffNFL @robertkschmitz @VivalaZito @BN_Bears @OfficialJAYCHI @Zack_Pearson He literally just posted stats that happened

@_MLFootball @jacobinfante24 @davebfr @DrunkRyanPoles @dwcprodz @JosephHerffNFL @robertkschmitz @VivalaZito @BN_Bears @OfficialJAYCHI @Zack_Pearson Justin Fields is terrible and the media has to stop glazing him already

THIS IS INSANE: In 2022, Chicago #Bears quarterback Justin Fields had a couple of INSANE game against these playoff teams, the #Eagles, #Cowboys, #49ers, and #Bills. In 7 Games 11 Passing TDs 3 Rushing TDs 1 INTERCEPTION 216 YPG 62.6 Completion Percentage 1515 Total Yards 😱😱😱 MASSIVE YEAR INCOMING @justnfields (Via @The_Ecyclopedia)

@JH61944 @_MLFootball @JKBOGEN @RamsWRLD_ @RamsTapes @JustinM_NFL @MikeHerndonNFL @DustBaker @SportsTalkATL @TitansStats @nacholeber @johnkriesel Nice troll

@_MLFootball @JKBOGEN @RamsWRLD_ @RamsTapes @JustinM_NFL @MikeHerndonNFL @DustBaker @SportsTalkATL @TitansStats @nacholeber @johnkriesel There is one first rounder on this list.

IF YOU NEED A QUARTERBACK, TANKING MIGHT BE THE ANSWER: -Caleb Williams -Drake Maye -Michael Penix Jr. -Shadeur Sanders -Jordan Travis -Joe Milton -JJ McCarthy -Jalen Milroe -Quinn Ewers -Sam Hartman -Bo Nix -Drew Allar -Spencer Rattler -Conner Weigman -KJ Jefferson Is this the most amount good college football quarterback WE HAVE EVER SEEN, playing at such a high level? (H/T @_RyanFowler_)

@chargers Xbox series s 😊

yes, for u. RT, follow, and drop your console

Ryan Mountcastle in a 4 game series vs Toronto: .846 avg 11 Hits 5 runs 3 RBIs 3 BB 0 Ks Ryan Mountcastle owns the city of Toronto and it’s not even debatable.

The Baltimore Orioles in 2023 64-41 2nd best record in baseball Won a season series against the yanks for the first time since 2016 Hosted Sunday night baseball for the first time in 5 years 4 players to make the All Star team The best reliever duo in baseball