Arvi

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Arvi

Arvi

@arvi

Statistician. PhD from @UofTStatSci, postdoc from @Princeton. Mostly tweet about sports

World Katılım Kasım 2007
524 Takip Edilen2.7K Takipçiler
Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@MostlyMonkey I somewhat disagree. I’d reframe this as the world belonging to people with conviction. Conviction can arise through your examples, but also the opposite (leaving a job because you want something different, going to grad school to open up a *particular* desired career, etc).
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Overeducated Gibbon
Overeducated Gibbon@MostlyMonkey·
The world largely belongs to those who pick a direction and stick to it long enough to know if it's working. Choose a career that's about more than "exit options". Marry a girl instead of going back to the dating apps. And for God's sake, don't go to grad school.
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@JFreshHockey Which meant that they weren’t putting up margins against opponents. He’s obviously had very good series before (OTT ‘25, TB 22 and 23), but it’s simply incorrect to say that he’s played at a level worth his contract in the postseason until this year. Which was always possible!
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@JFreshHockey I think it’s a bit naive to say that Marner was always doing this in the playoffs from a look at his xGF% and GF%. 1. The Leafs PP often dried up in the postseason, which is partially his responsibility 2. The ratios obscure that he (and Matthews) played a super low event style
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JFresh
JFresh@JFreshHockey·
remembering all the people who were sure that Marner had a disappointing season because of his hockey card stats (61% goal share and 57% xgoal share at 5v5) who are now astonished that he's been so good in the playoffs (60% goal share, 59% xgoal share)
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leafs2hell
leafs2hell@fksambennett·
@arvi @politicstcan Sure but cap value is going to matter less and less with increases imo… obviously contracts will go up accordingly, but at a certain point the leafs will be outspending everyone salary wise…
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@fksambennett @politicstcan Yeah, obviously, the big thing is cap efficiency there. If McKenna hits, you get him for 7 years of nearly guaranteed great value.
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leafs2hell
leafs2hell@fksambennett·
@arvi @politicstcan I’ve suggested that multiple times and people have flamed me like I’m a goofball… most likely fox will be more impactful than any player in their prime, selected in this draft
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@politicstcan Combination of people sleeping on Thomas, and the optimism around very good prospects. FWIW, if it was 1OA for Fox, I’d be super interested, esp if NYR also took on short term salary there.
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Tyler
Tyler@politicstcan·
@arvi That's fine, and I'm not even saying it's something you have to do; I just don't get why it's getting flamed *this* hard from a roster-building philosophy perspective
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@Noahpinion @littmath I’m a longtime reader of your work, Noah. You’re being incredibly, unnecessarily rude, and are consistently guilty of being far more snarky to others than Daniel was to you.
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Daniel Litt
Daniel Litt@littmath·
Doing my best to communicate responsibly, but wow the discourse is rough.
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@JeffVeillette Feel like it’s really weird to have strong opinions on basically any AGM. Can make some guesses about Pridham, but they did a bunch of smart stuff and dumb stuff (cap wise) with him on the staff, so who can really say.
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Jeff Veillette
Jeff Veillette@JeffVeillette·
I know fandom is irrational but it’s incredible skimming social media and seeing the pulse on Brandon Pridham shift in Toronto from “irreplaceable” to “never saw the hype anyway” in real time now that it’s been reported that he’s leaving
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@JeffVeillette Off the top of my head: 1. 2022 G6 Tampa 2. 2025 G6 Florida 3. 2020 G4 Columbus 4. 2024 G2 Boston
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@PeterLeafsFan @_knilanderthews I think that’s reasonable. I wouldn’t be upset at all if they took McKenna on that basis. But I don’t think it’s unreasonable to take Stenberg either
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Peter 🇨🇦
Peter 🇨🇦@PeterLeafsFan·
@arvi @_knilanderthews I started reading PPP almost 20 years ago and its been drilled into me that you always shoot your shot for the higher ceiling player
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A@_knilanderthews·
For due diligence purposes, someone talk me into Stenberg
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@TheLeafZone44 Big minute player on a genuinely good SHL team with the team winning his minutes pretty handily. Seems like he processes the game at a really high level, and is great along the boards / on the forecheck. Seems like a guy with great offense who will move the puck the right way
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LeafZone44
LeafZone44@TheLeafZone44·
@arvi I’ve seen a few people mention this, I’m also not a prospect guy but what are you seeing that leads you to this?
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
With the caveat that I know nothing about prospects, and have watched one (1) video about them each, I like Stenberg over McKenna.
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JFresh
JFresh@JFreshHockey·
@Chaplaooo a lot of it didn't age well
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JFresh
JFresh@JFreshHockey·
i have no idea if chayka will be any good. hopefully and presumably he'll be pretty good at marshalling the leafs' big non-player-salary money advantage
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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@JeffVeillette It is wild to watch people retcon events I vividly remember as I experienced at the time. Sundin took a LOT of shit throughout his career, and was at times considered the poster child for the “good but not great reputation”the Leafs had in the Quinn era.
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Jeff Veillette
Jeff Veillette@JeffVeillette·
“Looked back on” and “group” are doing a lot of heavy lifting here. In the moment the losses were seen as underachievements and Mats took a ton of the blame, with his will and commitment constantly questioned. By the end we had the Muskoka Five. This is big-time retconning.
Port@selectionporto

@JeffVeillette Nonsense. Sundins era are generally looked back on as a group of guys who played hard, tried their best, fought until the end but werr not good enough to win. Worst case 1999 and 2002 conference finals were seen as missed opportunities. Comparing that era to core 4 is wild.

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Arvi
Arvi@arvi·
@MMGOLFSTUDIOS @RobertDowneyIII It’s much easier to improve your short game to avoid duffed/skulled chips, putts that go half the required distance, etc, than to start carrying your driver 250 with tight dispersion.
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MM🇺🇸
MM🇺🇸@MMGOLFSTUDIOS·
@RobertDowneyIII What’s the value in improving Your short fame when it takes you 5 to get there?
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Peter Leonard
Peter Leonard@PLeonard61032·
@arvi @alifakharany I do agree. Arsenal are not at that level. ClubELO LFC peaked at 2091, AFC at 2070 But also, I think the super high intensity nature of Klopp's LFC make them stand out more. Arsenal not allowing teams to even take a shot on goal is nowhere near as exciting - but it is effective
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Ali Elfakharany
Ali Elfakharany@alifakharany·
I think a lot of coverage of the PL would get better if people just stared at this chart before having any opinions. The average EPL team in 2009 is Wolves in 2026 True in 2019 as well when CityPool had 98-97 points.
Ali Elfakharany tweet media
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Keşfet

@MostlyMonkey @JFreshHockey @fksambennett @politicstcan @Noahpinion @littmath @NateDuncanNBA @JeffVeillette