@domluszczyszyn If only there was an example of the Leafs front office getting frustrated about an incredibly talented but imperfect offensive winger, only to see him reach career heights elsewhere.
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Arvi
4.2K posts
Arvi
@arvi
Statistician. PhD from @UofTStatSci, postdoc from @Princeton. Mostly tweet about sports
World Katılım Kasım 2007
522 Takip Edilen2.7K Takipçiler
lmao please get everyone involved with creating this dumpster fire away from this team
NHL Rumour Report@NHLRumourReport
Luke Fox: Re Maple Leafs: I think they're thinking, do we want William Nylander part of this future? - Real Kyper & Bourne (3/19)
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New podcast! @ATFulemin and I discuss the Leafs trade deadline, season outlook, and where they go from here.
soundcloud.com/back-to-excite…
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@maiamindel Also why sports (mostly) works. There’s an observable process that participants can use in real time.
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Honestly the problem with "prediction markets" is that they're just a stalking grounds for insider traders. Without actual protections there is no information sharing, it's just a barrel of minnows for a few plugged-in sharks. GDP or inflation futures don't have that problem
Denitsa Tsekova@denitsa_tsekova
We looked at the average bettor in Iran-related prediction markets. In one of the most popular markets, ~90% of wallets bet $1,000 or less. The 10 accounts that traded $1M+? They only started betting after the initial news broke. W/@justinaknope @rachaeldottle
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I’m sympathetic to the fact that you shouldn’t make a bad deal for the sake of it, but like… negotiating is a key part of the job. Also, if they decided to sell earlier, when no one else was doing so, maybe this would be different.
NHL Rumour Report@NHLRumourReport
Darren Dreger: Re Maple Leafs trade deadline: Because of the market and the flood of players that exist out there, I think Brad Treliving has struggled with getting legitimate offers - Insider Trading (3/4)
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@AdamWylde It’s doable, but yeah, won’t be easy. And I dont trust this org to run a lemonade stand, let alone a hockey team
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@arvi I don’t really know how they get back in Nylander/Auston’s window. It’s gunna have to be some really adept moves… things change quick, but it’s a huge ask.
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So the Leafs feel the roster wasn’t good enough for the coach, but the guy who made the roster has done enough to keep his job?
Leafslatest@Leafslatest
Maple Leafs trade deadline storylines/rumors as the deadline approaches: 🔹 The Leafs feel they did not give Craig Berube enough tools to succeed as head coach this season. 🔹 The organization intends to give Brad Treliving the opportunity to address the issues and try to fix this, potentially giving the current group one more shot. — — 🔹 The Leafs are still in talks with Bobby McMann regarding a contract extension, but as of Monday there has been no progress. A decision on his future is expected sometime this week. 🔹 Scott Laughton’s next contract is projected to come in higher than what Toronto is comfortable paying. 🔹 OEL appears more likely to be moved compared to Carlo or Benoit. 🔹 Robertson and Jarnkrok could be names to watch for potential trades. Per @TheFourthPeriod / @reporterchris #leafsforever
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@AdamWylde We had about 9 years of having competent management (not even elite management, just competent), and it turns out that’s as good as it gets for this team.
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@ntrider825 I don’t think it really changes how Canadians view players. But I know Swedes really responded to Sundin differently after 2006, and I think it’ll be something similar here, given that the US hasn’t won in nearly 50 years.
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@Afinetheorem I apologize for repeating myself, but we don’t talk about it because the leaders behind this revolutionary technology keep saying that employment is going to plummet and humans labour will be replaced (not augmented). Of course the response is different.
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When we go from 50% ag workers to 1% over two generations, we don't see any change in overall employment, wages go up, and the people who get rich are not the people who owned farmland or John Deere in 1920. This is a possible AI future! 2/2
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Everyone makes the Industrial Revolution analogy for AI. Why not the Green Revolution one, where a huge increase in productivity made society much richer, led to changes in the jobs most people do, but without social turmoil because the former was more important than latter? 1/2
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@Afinetheorem And I know you don’t think that, but if these firms are facing problems relating to human opposition to their mission, they should probably stop loudly boasting about how it will destroy human lives in 6-12 months.
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@Afinetheorem Isn’t there some uniqueness to this particular tech change, given that the people in charge of them (CEOs of AI companies) are more or less saying that they will obviate the need for human work? The resistance seems totally predictable given that.
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What drives me crazy about status quo bias and opposition to progress is that when the cancer cure comes, no one who opposes the data center will refuse it. When your grandma is killed by a human driver when most cities are self driving, no one will think of the other grandmas.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538
Opposition to building data centers might be irrational at the mircoscale (they're just gonna be bulilt somewhere else). But at the mesoscale, people are profoundly doubtful about whether AI will broadly benefit society and that's not so irrational at all.
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@Michael_Druggan I think it’s fair to argue that increasing the attack surface of something like this is not great, even if versions of this trade exist in other markets.
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$250k isn't even that much. There have been opportunities in the stock and options market for decades to sabotage a company and collect way more than that. It's rare to actually happen though because getting away with a large sabotage is hard and people with enough capital to act on these opportunities don't want that risk.
Luke Leisher@luke_leisher_
There is nearly a quarter million dollars of 'NO' liquidity available to anyone who thinks the mission will fail. In other words, polymarket has a $250k dollar bounty available for anyone willing to sabotage the Artemis 2 mission. Prediction markets need to be nuked off the face of the planet.
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@moreproteinbars @taobanker Also bizarre because IME, there is a lot of heterogeneity within firms. They’re not universally awesome at everything, and externally, it might not be obvious where they are actually strong/weak.
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@taobanker It’s just status but also these rankings are silly because half the time it’s by people who have no idea.
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so many people these days believe their only potential call to greatness is working at a prestigious company lol
rvivek@rvivek
Hot companies to work for according to candidates (src: Reddit)
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@BracaMiklo @travisyost Agreed that Berube has been a headwind. A strong finish to the olympics for him would suggest that is a large factor.
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@arvi @travisyost Maybe it's cope but I feel like it's really too early to say that. The last time he was fully healthy two years ago he scored 69 goals, then last year was injury plagued and we don't know how healthy he's been this year, plus he's had a terrible coach both this year and last.
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One thing that’s remarkable to me is how Jack Eichel has meaningfully jumped Auston Matthews.
I’m not sure it’s close anymore. Eichel is an elite two way player and simply one of the best players in the world. Matthews seems to be slowing down..
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@tj96111030 @KPapetti The US is totally live to beat Canada, don’t get me wrong. But I think relative to my expectation pre tournament, the US has done slightly worse, and Canada slightly better.
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@arvi MacKinnon's line isn't buzzing yet either though. I don't think my opinion of USA's third line has changed all that much yet
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@arvi its so ridiculous that it could be
robertson hughes caufield
and its miller nelson hughes 😂
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@arvi I believe Larkin was pretty impressive at the Four Nations. They should be able to figure out a solid third line eventually
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