Ashley Trading 💹

Time for some rest from the markets. Holiday for 2 weeks in Spain. Returning 28th May. Stay safe out there on the charts guys. Ash.

#SP500 $SPY $SPX Semis continue to drive the markets higher. Opportunities exist in $IGV Software, $IYZ Telecoms & $IYS Healthcare.

@_alfiekerswell Gold to equities ratio is slightly elevated but not significantly. Dot-com S&P to gold price was 5.5x Today it is 1.5x More currency depreciation than anything.

Asset markets are NOT pricing a recession

#Sp500 $SPY #GOLD Double strength support for Equities against Gold. Flip to gold at 2.50 resistance on the ratio. If Gold price increases by 10% a year for the next 2 years (historical avg. gold yearly gain), our S&P flip to Gold price is 14,260 in 28/29. Long equities.

#USOIL The oil/gold ratio is cheap. Oil could do 3-4x to get back to something of an historical equilibrium price. Oil likes to hockey stick. We appear to match a copy/paste hockey stick so far. Oil could realistically run up another 400% over the next 6 years.

@mikemcglone11 Mike, you're one of the best on here and somebody educated that's actually worth listening to. My take on this is that oil likes to hockey stick. Violently. It's also cheap against Gold and could 3x to get back to a reasonable oil/gold price. Multiple factors line up here.

Crude Oil's Extreme Premium vs. Itself, Natural Gas Crude has never stretched to a greater premium to its 100-week moving average and vs. the price of natural gas in the history of WTI futures trading (since 1985) and US natural gas (1990), and this dynamic has reversion implications. Our graphic shows WTI about 40% above this mean on May 8 and roughly 35x the natural gas future. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and crude peaked near $130 a barrel, natural gas stretched to about $10 per million British thermal units and the crude/gas ratio stayed near its historic average around 15x. Currently, the front gas future is about $2.80. Is crude too hot, gas too cold or some combination of both? My bias leans to a combo, notably because the front crude futures surge to $120 was nearly double the break-even production cost in the US, the largest producer and a net exporter. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #crudeoil #naturalgas #energy @BBGIntelligence

@mikemcglone11 Mike, you're one of the best on here. But oil likes to hockey stick

Crude Pattern: Lower Highs and Lows - Has It Changed? Since peaking near $147 a barrel in 2008, WTI crude oil has made lower highs and lows, but has that pattern changed? The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is a good test, but there are always good reasons to visit the tails of an enduring range. My graphic highlights two key reasons I don't expect 2026 to be different: the growing US and Canadian supply surplus and a stretched stock market. The burden of buoyancy for most assets on the US stock market-cap-to GDP to keep advancing from about 2.5x -- the highest in almost a century -- is emphasized by crude's roughly 20-year range. A sustained 10% drop in stocks would equate to almost 25% of GDP, pressuring consumers and oil prices. Roughly $65 a barrel is the mode, which is about $10 above the break-even cost in the world's top producer, and a net exporter -- the US. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #crudeoil #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence

@RhoRider S&P to gold price was 5.5x in 2000. It's currently 1.5x in 2026. Not anywhere near a speculative bubble.

⛔️Here’s a crazy chart to chew on. Btwn March 2000- Sept 2002, Nasdaq fell 83.6% from Dotcom peak to bottom 83.6% below Nasdaq today lands EXACTLY back at the Dotcom peak. Coincidence? 😅

$APLD Data Centre Infrastructure. Breaking out of a 5 year resistance on the monthly chart. Currently trading at $41, next resistance is $115 and then the $180 zone. 28% short interest. 193% YoY Revenue Growth $23bn contract with $CRWV. 100% A+ Stock.

$LASR #nLIGHT Photonic high power fibre laser manufacturer. 71% Q4 2025 revenue growth, very low debt & growing defence & data centre demand. Widely respected CEO. Smaller than rivals however they have several IPs and very low debt that make a good target for an acquisition.

@_alfiekerswell Past 12 months. 36k this date in 2025. Now at 60k in 2026. 60% increase-ish. My original figure outdated from a few weeks ago as I do a rolling 12 month comparison. Apologies. Most of this gain is based on the weak yen currency. The dollar is the second weakest of the majors.

Well the definition of hyperinflation is extremely rapid, out of control prices (usually MORE than 50% YoY, we’re nowhere near). So we’re certainly not pricing that, we’re at 3.6% YoY. Reflation though, yes Nikkei is up 22% roughly, not 96% I’m not sure what chart you’re looking at brother

I look at equities right now and they're literally at these valuations WHILE oil is above $100 AND central banks like the ECB are priced to HIKE, imagine when just one unwinds, positioning MUST shift in my view and when people say "equities are rallying because people don't believe the central banks will hike", thats wrong because the forward curve is MARKET IMPLIED, meaning thats exactly what people think will happen, people just clearly believe that even in the face of those hikes, growth will remain strong.... but imagine if they dont hike/dont hike as much

Bitcoin VS S&P 500 BTC looks like it wants to outperform the S&P for a 3-6 week period. Crypto rally, index pullback? Strong chance based on chart probabilities as it stands. $BTC #BITCOIN #SP500 $SPY $SPX

$RCAT Red Cat Small cap drone manufacturer, 1900% YoY growth, 3 new added factories in 2025 to boost production capacity by 520%, global govt. contracts from across the world. 19% short interest squeeze. Drone warfare accelerating and increasing global defence budgets. A+

#Defence / #Aerospace #stocks specifically small caps look undervalued here. Here is the % discount from 52 week highs. Some are beginning to start uptrends.

$IWC VS $SPY #SP500 $SPX MICROCAP INDEX VS S&P 500 Looks like the start of a new trend into small cap companies. 12 straight months of outperformance in the microcap index. Likely to continue for years.

$QUIK Quicklogic Budget friendly semis with defense contracts. CEO is a company man, been there 30yrs. Seen as finally cracking it, largest order upto $88m recently won. Profitability widely expected in second half of 2026. Non gaap margins of 57% expected. Train departing.

$SIF #Sifco Industries $107m market cap. Defense and aerospace. New leadership has returned them to net profitability. Contracts for black hawks and Chinooks have a $140m order backlog. Institutional involvement happening here. Rocket

$NCI Software business gaap profitable running a 7.4x PE ratio on 134% dollar retention. Hold Saudi PIF as key customer. CEO track record is outstanding, delivered 19 revenue beats in a row with deep industry specialised knowledge. Very low risk and fast growing business.

$ADMA Small/mid cap biotech focused on plasma therapies, perfect balance sheet, electric growth and surging net income. Founder outstanding by hitting big targets with 3.4m shares owned. Any competitors are 7 yrs away and would require big capex. Large cap status matter soon. A+