Bloomberg Intelligence

Rising Middle East tensions are moving oil & shipping markets. On Talking Transports, I’m joined by @BBGIntelligence’s: • Wayne Sanders (Defense) • Salih Yilmaz (Energy) @salihenergy • Kenneth Lowe (Shipping) We discuss Brent near $80, VLCC rates & Strait of Hormuz risks. 🎧 Listen to episode 127 of Talking Transports...Enjoy!! Apple: bit.ly/4sobZYY Spotify: bit.ly/4bjYBiA iHeart: ihr.fm/40Ebe1P Bloomberg.com: bit.ly/4rMIzUo Bloomberg Terminal: bit.ly/4u5KdSC #Energy #Shipping #Freight #Tanker #TalkingTransports

What do US-Israeli strikes on Iran mean for oil and gas markets? The team from @BBGIntelligence held a rapid response webinar this morning. Make sure to catch the replay with @WillHares, @salihenergy, Vince Piazza, @mikemcglone11, Talon Custer & Joao Martins: lnkd.in/e8Trn-Nv And check out our report on @TheTerminal: $80 Oil Strength Hinges on Scale of Iran Retaliation in Gulf War Brent is more than 6% higher on Monday March 2 -- toward $78-$80 a barrel, in line with our expectations -- following US and Israeli strikes on Iran. We expect sustained oil-price strength over the coming weeks to hinge on a significant escalation in conflict via Iranian retaliation on regional energy infrastructure or the disruption of marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global seaborne oil flows. A full shutdown of the strait may not be necessary to disrupt transit, as Iranian threats of seizure or sporadic attacks on vessels would be enough to deter shipping, an effect already emerging. Alongside Saudi Aramco and Adnoc, western majors like TotalEnergies, BP, Shell and ExxonMobil hold significant portfolio exposure in the Gulf via Qatari LNG and UAE upstream concessions. #EnergyMarkets #OilPrices #BrentCrude #NaturalGas #LNG #StraitOfHormuz #IranConflict #Geopolitics #OPEC #QatarGas #EnergySecurity #Commodities #OilTrading #USShale #EuropeanGas #MarketVolatility #EnergyInflation #BloombergEnergy #CrudeOil #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #MacroEconomics #TradeDisruption #EnergyCrisis #OilAndGas

With the unprecedented mega IPOs of @SpaceX, @OpenAI and @AnthropicAI approaching, major index providers are weighing rewriting rules long thought immutable. Proposed fast-tracked inclusion and relaxed float and voting rules suggest that trillion-dollar IPOs may bend the major benchmarks instead of being constrained by them, according to Rob Du Boff, senior ESG analyst. @FTSE Russell launched a February consultation on fast-tracking sizable IPOs and revising eligibility rules following client feedback. The S&P 500, which utilizes quarterly rebalancing and has a 10% free float requirement, could follow suit. #IPOAlert #SPX500 #IPO

Software exposure in large private BDCs mirrors public peers, at about 26% at the high end vs. a median of 21% says Michael Kaye, financials analyst. Software exposure is a focal point among investors amid AI-related volatility in public equities. Yet sector weight alone doesn't capture underwriting structure, leverage, borrower quality or payment-in-kind exposure, which could ultimately prove more relevant for credit performance. #BDC #Software #PrivateEquity

Bloomberg Intelligence AI Risk & Opportunities Matrix identifies sectors and companies that can not only manage the disruption but stand to gain from it. Senior software analyst Anurag Rana assessed the field using factors including the critical nature of the software, the vendor's market share, network effects, whether the company is a platform or a point-product provider and whether the end customers are consumers and small businesses or large corporations. #ai #Software #disruption

Natural gas-focused E&Ps should see stronger financial performance in 2026 as tightening winter balances lift US gas prices. Higher benchmarks and efficiency gains bolster free-cash-flow yields, enabling more dividends and buybacks while supporting M&A, according to Vincent G. Piazza, CFA , senior energy analysts. Consolidation may continue in the Haynesville and the Northeast. Structural demand from LNG exports and AI-driven power needs remains supportive, though high production tempers prices. Expand Energy and EQT Corporation appear advantaged, while Range and Antero Resources may reassess strategic options. #gas #Exploration #shale

Global demand for advanced weaponry is soaring as the US and allies strengthen deterrence amid conflicts and rapid technological shifts. Air defense, space/counterspace and hypersonics together may reach a $1 trillion market over the next five years, with space defense alone exceeding $600B and air/missile defense adding $300–325B, according to BI's Wayne Sanders. The US seeks to regain hypersonic leadership and develop a “Golden Dome” shield, benefiting major primes like @Boeing@ @LockheedMartin @L3HarrisTech and @northropgrumman. European allies will buy cutting-edge US weapons systems while trying to ramp up domestic production capacity and replenish ground-warfare equipment to keep Russia at bay. #Defense #weapons #MissileSite #Europe

@Vestas, Nordex Group and @goldwind — the global wind-industry bellwethers — are likely to deliver consensus-beating sales growth and margins in 2026, supported by ~130 GW of robust demand, policy-backed backlogs, firmer pricing, steadier steel costs and high-margin services. “These conditions set the stage for a stronger-than-expected 2026,” says renewables analyst Rob Barnett. Onshore remains the cash engine, driving margin expansion at Nordex and peer-leading levels at Vestas, while Goldwind’s 52.5 GW backlog and rising exports support visible 2026–27 growth. #windpower #renewables #storm #onshore #offshore

Global e-commerce should accelerate in 2026 as AI and refined assortments lift conversion and sales, according to senior retail analyst Poonam Goyal. She expects US digital sales gains in high single digits, led by @amazon , with easing tariff pressures and benefits from social commerce. Europe’s Allegro, @Zalando and Next may extend momentum, while China’s @AlibabaGroup Group and Tencent stay well positioned amid rising competition. Shopee and TikTok Shop could gain share in Southeast Asia. Mercado Libre leads BI peers, and turnaround efforts aid laggards. #Ecommerce #retailer #tariff

Global shipping will face weaker rates in 2026 as vessel supply outpaces demand, potentially worsened by a full Suez Canal reopening, BI Senior Transportation Analyst @Lee Klaskow notes in his just-published the Global Marine Shipping 2026 Outlook. He also expects crude tankers and dry bulk outperform liners, yet notes that tanker fundamentals are softening. Geopolitics have temporarily lifted rates. Dry-bulk demand should strengthen on China and easing US-China tensions, but 3.4% fleet growth may still pressure profits for NYK Line, @COSCOSHPGLines , Pacific Basin and Star Bulk, unless trade policies stabilize or Russia sanctions ease. #shipping #suez #Maersk #globalshipping

Tokyo-based senior technology analyst Masahiro Wakasugi, sees demand for foundry and chip equipment staying flat in 1H26 as AI-driven strength in leading-edge logic and power ICs is offset by tariff pressures and weak PC-related demand. By 2H26, investment is expected to accelerate in HBM, DRAM and NAND, lifting tool demand for Lam Research and @ASMLcompany , with potential upside if memory shortages pull capex forward. @tsmcltd180 may increase logic capex, boosting lithography and testing tools. Chipmakers and equipment stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 YTD, led by TSMC, Lam and SMIC, with valuations supported by strong long-term demand. #semi #Foundary #AI

AI servers will dominate 2026 hardware spending, with revenue projected to jump 45% to $312 billion — 41% of all hardware outlays — driven by hyperscalers’ capacity expansion through 2027. Taiwan’s EMS leaders, @Dell Technologies and @Supermicro remain key beneficiaries. Traditional IT spending stays cautious early in the year, though upgrades and inflation support mid-single-digit growth, but memory-price spikes threaten margins, according to BI's senior technology analyst @Woo Jin Hoo. #AI #Hardwarw #servers #hyperscalers

Gene-editing therapies face a tough road ahead, notes BI senior biopharmaceuticals analyst Ann-Hunter van Kirk. Despite CRISPR and @VertexPharma securing the first @US_FDA approval, the market’s launch has been underwhelming, pushing revenue projections down to $5B by 2030 from earlier $13B forecasts. High costs, uncertain reimbursement models, and elevated interest rates continue to pressure the largely precommercial sector. By 2035, CRISPR Therapeutics could still lead with 28% of market share, followed by Verve, @Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. and Beam. The industry’s future hinges on adapting payment structures for multimillion-dollar, one-time treatments to unlock broader adoption and sustain long-term growth. #pharma #Merger #gene-eding #fda

Despite economic concerns, most travelers plan to keep their vacation budgets steady — or even spend more — in 2026, according to BI’s latest travel survey. Full-service airlines like American Airlines and @united Airlines may benefit as travelers prioritize experience over price, while hotel chains such as Grand Hyatt, @MarriottIntl , IHG Hotels & Resorts, and Hilton Hotels & Resorts remain top choices. Still, more people plan to seek low-cost or free activities, signaling tighter budgets for some. The divide between high- and low-income travelers continues to highlight a K-shaped economy, according to BI's Senior Credit analyst Jody Lurie, CFA. #TravelTrends #Tourism2026 #airlines #hotels #Economy

As AI-driven data centers continue to expand, hyperscalers are facing a growing power crunch. Lengthy waits for gas turbines (3–4 years) and grid interconnects (up to 7 years) are forcing the industry to think creatively — and fast, according to BI's @Scott Levine. Emerging Solutions: - Microgrids from Liberty Energy, ProPetro, and @VoltaGrid are providing modular, off-grid power for data centers — ideal for remote sites or those facing grid bottlenecks. - Fuel cells from Bloom Energy are offering cleaner, scalable on-site generation. - Boilers from Babcock International Group & Wilcox are helping balance heat and power needs efficiently. According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s @barnettenergy Barnett, supporting US AI growth could require an additional 379–744 TWh of electricity by 2030 — the equivalent of adding multiple large-scale utilities. AI’s future depends on energy innovation. Distributed, flexible, and deployable power systems may hold the key to keeping data flowing while the grid catches up. #EnergyTransition #AIInfrastructure #DataCenters #Microgrids #FuelCells #BloombergIntelligence #Sustainability #PowerGeneration

The irony of the AI boom: the U.S. leads in ambition, software & capital — but lags in market performance. Heavy AI spending and lofty valuations drag performance, while South Korea & Taiwan — makers of AI’s “nuts & bolts” — surge ahead, according to BI Strategist Gillian Wolff. Emerging markets are outperforming as America’s AI optimism meets market reality. #markets #AI #EmergingMarkets

Niraj Patel, Senior Technology analyst projects the electronic design automation (EDA) market to grow 10.5% annually to $26.6 billion by 2032, fueled by complex chip architectures, AI integration and rising demand from system companies. AI agents are expected to enhance engineering productivity and expand contract values by over 20%. With growing needs for 3D ICs, chiplets and simulation tools, leaders like Synopsys Inc, Cadence and Siemens should see multiyear tailwinds, strong pricing power and operating margins near 40%, rivaling top-tier software peers. #ai #eda #Semiconductors

Robotaxis are poised to add $15–$20 billion to annual sales for @Uber, @lyft and other firms in the global ride-sharing market, pushing it to around $340 billion by 2030, according to BI's Mandeep Singh, CFA. @Waymo service will grow through alliances with automakers, while @Tesla 's share in robotaxi service will depend on improving its cars’ software. In China, low-cost conventional taxis discourage investment in a fragmented robotaxi market that includes @Baidu_Inc, DiDi, Pony.ai AI and @weride . AV stocks have rallied -- up 70% in 12 months -- but valuations still trail 2021 highs, with @nvidia , @Tesla and @weride leading, while @lyft and NIO lag behind. #ridesharing #robotaxis #driving

AI stocks may seem expensive, but they’re nowhere near dot-com bubble levels. The Magnificent Seven trade at about 36.8x earnings -- well below their 2021 peak of 47.3x and far from the 80x valuations of the 1999–2000 “Four Horsemen” (@Cisco , @Microsoft , @Dell Technologies, @intel Corporation). Unlike that era’s speculative surge, today’s gains rest on strong profits and disciplined leverage. Earnings growth has kept valuations in check since the 2022 bear market. Optimism fuels the AI rally, but it’s grounded more in fundamentals than frenzy, suggesting this is a sustainable expansion, not a replay of the internet mania 25 years ago, according to Michael Casper, CFA, Equity Strategist. #AI #bubble #MagnificentSeven

The drivers of the global equity rally — mainly tech and communications names linked to AI — have begun to lose momentum, a particular concern given the concentration risk and narrow leadership structure these sectors have created. US Equity strategist Gillian Wolff, CFA notes that while global tech and communications stocks are still outperforming the broader index on a trailing three-month basis, our relative rotation graph for the MSCI ACWI Index shows they've shifted from a regime of leadership and acceleration to leadership and deceleration as the magnitude of outperformance fades. #SPX500 #AI #technology