Phatcn Cepltel

72 posts

Phatcn Cepltel

Phatcn Cepltel

@Athena_Theo

Katılım Ağustos 2011
47 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I will be sharing my latest investment strategies for free on WhatsApp. Welcome to join! ➡️Copy search input Reply "2026" to WhatsApp: +16172125380 👉 🔗: api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=16… 🎥 - DAILY LIVE TRADING 📖 - TRADE RECAPS ☢️ - PERSONAL STRATEGY
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I will be sharing my latest investment strategies for free on WhatsApp. Welcome to join! ➡️Copy search input Reply "2026" to WhatsApp: +16172125380 👉 🔗: api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=16… 🎥 - DAILY LIVE TRADING 📖 - TRADE RECAPS ☢️ - PERSONAL STRATEGY
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry \& exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ 🚨 Copy search input Reply “2026” to WhatsApp: + 16172125380 Here’s the link : wa.me/16172125380/?t…
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
$AXTI Q1 2026 요약 (AI, benzinga.com/insights/news/…) + PhotonCap view AXT가 Q1 2026 매출 $26.9M(+39.1% YoY)으로 컨센($26.7M)을 상회했고, Non-GAAP 총이익률은 직전 분기 21.5%, 작년 동기 -6.1%에서 29.9%로 극적 턴어라운드했다. InP 매출만 $13.6M으로 전체의 절반 이상을 차지하며 대부분 데이터센터 향이다. Q2 가이던스는 더 강한데, 이미 확보된 최소 매출 $34M에 Non-GAAP EPS +$0.06~0.08로 흑자 전환을 제시했고, InP 수주잔고는 사상 최고 $100M+, Q2는 InP 역대 최대 분기가 될 전망이다. 캐파 로드맵도 공격적이어서 2026년 말 InP 캐파를 분기 $35M(현재 2배), 2027년 말 $65~70M(또 2배)까지 확장한다. 시간외 -5.3% 하락은 펀더멘털 훼손이 아니라 기대치-가이던스 갭 + 희석 + 차익실현의 조합이다. 직전에 단행한 $632.5M 증자로 주식 수가 53.3M → 63.5M(+19%)으로 늘며 희석 부담이 부각됐고, 일부 buy-side가 Q2 $38~40M을 기대했던 반면 회사는 "확보된 최소치 $34M"만 제시해 갭이 발생했다. 또한 가이던스 핵심 변수가 중국 수출허가 발급 속도라는 점이 명시되며 불확실성이 부각됐고, 어닝 전 큰 폭의 랠리 이후 차익실현 압력도 겹쳤다. 실적 자체는 InP 사이클 진입을 명확히 확인한 호실적이다. 내 view로는 InP는 명백한 병목임 이번 어닝이 그 정량적 증거를 처음 제공. 현재 분기 InP 캐파가 $17M인데 수주잔고가 $100M+, 즉 대략 6분기치 백로그가 쌓임 이는 아티클에서도 대략 다룸, 2026년 2배, 2027년 또 2배로 증설하는데도 Morris Young이 직접 "수요는 10배"라고 언급할 정도다. 하이퍼스케일러가 Tier-1 고객을 건너뛰고 AXT에 직접 공급망 보장을 요청하는 단계에 진입했으며, Iron-doped:Sulfur-doped 믹스가 과거 1:10에서 4:6으로 바뀐 것은 단순 트랜시버를 넘어 포토디텍터/CPO용 수요가 본격화되고 있다는 신호. EML, 고속 PD, CPO 광원 모두 InP 외 대안이 현재로서는 마땅히 없고 Si Photonics도 결국 레이저 광원은 InP에 의존한다는 점에서, 이 병목은 일시적 공급 이슈가 아니라 추론기 광인프라의 구조적 제약이다. Morris가 CPO를 2027년 말 "next inflection point"로 직접 지목한 만큼, 2026년 트랜시버 수요 → 2027년 말 CPO 변곡점 → 2028년 6-inch 본격화가 겹치며 두 번째 수요 폭발이 예고돼 있다. 한국 광부품/광통신 업체 입장에서 향후 2~3년 가장 중요한 BOM 리스크는 InP 기판 확보 그 자체다.
Photon Capital@PhotonCap

x.com/i/article/2028…

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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I will be sharing my latest investment strategies for free on WhatsApp. Welcome to join! ➡️Copy search input Reply "2026" to WhatsApp: +16172125380 👉 🔗: api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=16… 🎥 - DAILY LIVE TRADING 📖 - TRADE RECAPS ☢️ - PERSONAL STRATEGY
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
Great thesis on $SIVEF / $SIVE. People keep saying there's no entry point, but yesterday gave one and today is giving another. I add on every drawdown, and it's now a significant position in my portfolio. The lesson I learned is that if you think a particular stock is promising, you should start investing in it even if it’s just a small amount. Of course, I am also liquidating my short-term holdings to realize profits at the same time, and reinvesting those funds into major stocks that I like and companies I can hold without having to constantly worry about them (less volatility).
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome. As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome. So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.

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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I will be sharing my latest investment strategies for free on WhatsApp. Welcome to join! ➡️Copy search input Reply "2026" to WhatsApp: +16172125380 👉 🔗: api.whatsapp.com/send/?phone=16… 🎥 - DAILY LIVE TRADING 📖 - TRADE RECAPS ☢️ - PERSONAL STRATEGY
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry \& exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ 🚨 Copy search input Reply “2026” to WhatsApp: + 16172125380 Here’s the link : wa.me/16172125380/?t…
English
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry \& exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ 🚨 Copy search input Reply “2026” to WhatsApp: + 16172125380 Here’s the link : wa.me/16172125380/?t…
English
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry \& exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ 🚨 Copy search input Reply “2026” to WhatsApp: + 16172125380 Here’s the link : wa.me/16172125380/?t…
English
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Phatcn Cepltel
Phatcn Cepltel@Athena_Theo·
@PhotonCap I share my real-time TRADE alert (entry \& exit points) on WhatsApp, free to join ✅ 🚨 Copy search input Reply “777” to WhatsApp: + 16172125380 Here’s the link : wa.me/16172125380/?t…
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Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
I just got started to add $BESIY to my port 1. The Technological Link: Silicon Photonics and CPO NVIDIA's $NVDA massive investment in Coherent $COHR and Lumentum $LITE is ultimately aimed at integrating Silicon Photonics—using light to transmit data—at the chip level to solve data center bottlenecks. As this technology evolves, it leads to CPO (Co-Packaged Optics). Traditionally, optical transceivers were located at the edge of the server. CPO, however, bundles optical components right next to the GPU or switch chip into a single, integrated package. 2. Why BESIY is Essential: Advanced Packaging Equipment To make CPO a reality, chips and optical components must be bonded with extreme, sub-micron precision. This is exactly where BESIY's unrivaled technology comes into play. The Absolute Leader in Hybrid Bonding: $BESIY is the global #1 player in the market for hybrid bonding and ultra-precision die-attach equipment, which are the core of next-generation semiconductor packaging. Heterogeneous Integration: For NVIDIA to stack or place optical components and logic chips (GPUs) side-by-side in 2.5D or 3D formats, foundries like TSMC $TSM and Intel $INTC, as well as OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) companies, must heavily adopt BESIY's advanced packaging equipment. In short, the faster NVIDIA accelerates the era of optical connectivity, the more demand for BESIY's ultra-precision packaging equipment will exponentially increase. 3. Stock and Market Insights Leveraged Indirect Beneficiary: $BESIY is a Dutch-listed company (a core European semi-cap stock alongside ASML $ASML) and trades in the US as an ADR (BESIY). While $COHR and $LITE surged today on direct news momentum, $BESIY acts as a mid-to-long-term beneficiary that will prove its value through the semiconductor equipment Capex (Capital Expenditure) cycle. Investment Momentum: NVIDIA's investment proves that the AI accelerator market is evolving beyond simply "how high can we stack HBM" to "how can we connect chips using light (photonics)." This means the TAM (Total Addressable Market) for next-generation packaging equipment led by $BESIY is expanding significantly.
Photon Capital@PhotonCap

$BESI After verifying that some of Besi SMTA 2026 presentation slides have been already publicly available online, I decided to unpack it. Let's dive into the future of AI Chiplet Packaging, Hybrid Bonding, and CPO. Along with the rapid growth of AI-related semiconductors, which are seeing a CAGR of 16.5% , the transition to 2.5D/3D systems that combine multiple chiplets is accelerating to overcome the limitations of traditional monolithic structures. To support this shift, Besi has partnered with Applied Materials to establish an integrated Die-to-Wafer (D2W) Hybrid Bonding line. 1. The Ultimate AI Package Architecture The sheer complexity of next-gen AI architectures is staggering. It’s not just about stacking XPU and HBM anymore; we are seeing the integration of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) with EIC-PIC Hybrid Bonding and high-precision photonics directly on the same substrate. System-level integration is reaching a whole new level. 2. The Equipment Roadmap Besi’s equipment roadmap serves as a strong leading indicator for the industry. Both their advanced Hybrid Bonding systems (8800 CHAMEO) and ultra-precise Photonics placement tools (2200 evo 1µm) are targeting 2026 H1. The mass-production cycle for sub-10µm optical and AI packaging is shifting into high gear right now. 3. The "Why" Behind Hybrid Bonding Why the aggressive push for Hybrid Bonding? The numbers speak for themselves. Compared to a 55µm pitch Si Bridge, moving to a 9µm pitch Hybrid Bonding approach delivers massive gains: 10X Lower Power 10X Lower Added Latency 30X Interconnect Area Reduction For power-hungry AI and high-speed optics, Cu-Cu direct bonding isn't just an option—it is mandatory. 4. The Scaling Battlefield TCB (Thermo-compression bonding) is being pushed to its absolute limits, moving towards the 2µm pitch mark. Meanwhile, D2W (Die-to-Wafer) Hybrid Bonding is breaking through into sub-micron territory, driving an exponential increase in 3D interconnect density. As interconnects scale below 10µm, the synergy between front-end wafer prep and back-end assembly is becoming the ultimate bottleneck.

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