Audrey

I have some initial thoughts on the draft MOU between #Iran and the U.S. as described by press reports: (1) Nothing is final until it's final. Surprises are always possible given the events since 2025. Be prepared for the unexpected. President Trump I am sure is paying close attention to the reaction thus far. (2) I would caution against describing the draft MOU as a "peace deal." I view it as an arrangement to buy time for yet more negotiations. The Iranian regime's entire foreign policy is premised on hostility to America and Israel. And that's not changing--MOU or no MOU. This is an extremely fragile undertaking. The illusion of deescalation should not be conflated with true peace as Tehran may have more resources to rearm and rebuild its terror network and military capabilities via sanctions waivers to freely sell oil and the lifting of the blockade. True peace will come once this regime is gone. (3) I am concerned about the press reports of "verbal commitments" on core issues such as enrichment and the HEU stockpile. I understand the unfreezing of the bulk of Iranian assets and full sanctions relief won't take place until a final deal is made and that there is a concept of "relief for performance," but there is a risk that even some sanctions waivers and the lifting of the blockade--powerful leverage--will disincentivize Tehran from making the concessions the U.S. wants later on and to stall and wait the Trump administration out. (4) There is also the question of whether the Strait of Hormuz will truly be even "open" with this kind of MOU as companies may still not feel comfortable transiting given the risks. Risk perceptions matter. That's why I see this is an extremely fragile undertaking. It will be fraught. It will be contested. (5) It is a fact that the only reason why there is a commitment--even a verbal one--to negotiate over a years-long suspension of enrichment is because President Trump created those facts on the ground through military action. A years-long suspension of enrichment was not even on the table in the Biden administration--it would not have even been considered by Tehran but for the Trump administration's military pressure. (6) It is also a fact that Operation Epic Fury had a number of achievements--degradation of Iran's missile and drone program, erosion defense industrial base, erosion of its terror network, taking out key Islamic Republic officials with the blood of Americans on their hands, degradation of key industries providing funding for the IRGC--that would not have been possible with diplomacy. The Islamic Republic refuses to even negotiate about them. And unlike his predecessors, President Trump was rightfully not content to merely issue strongly-worded press statements expressing concern about this malign behavior and issuing symbolic sanctions while the regime gets away with murder. (7) In the end, as I have stressed before, there are no happy endings with this regime in power. Only managing conflict and countering the regime through economic, military, and sometimes diplomatic means. It's often messy, imperfect, and there's risk in all tools--including diplomatic deals--in addressing the threats from this regime.