Austin Starkweather

28 posts

Austin Starkweather

@AustinStarkwea1

Finance Assistant Prof @haslamut PhD @UofMaryland @SmithSchool . Undergrad @Princeton. Former economist @Cornerstone_res. Supporter of @Arsenal.

Knoxville, TN Katılım Mart 2023

329 Takip Edilen138 Takipçiler

Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·3 Eki

@bootcutgenes @scottjwillis 2x differential might be a better analysis, whereas that simulation focuses on keeping the xg difference the same (eg, always +1). My example - If the xg is 1.0 for vs 0.5 against, the expected points is ~67. If it's 2.0 for vs 1 against, then xpts is ~77. more>fewer.? Thoughts?

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checked out@bootcutgenes·3 Eki

@AustinStarkwea1 @scottjwillis Or are you saying that the marginal gain will shift depending on the ratio?

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·2 Eki

A follow-up on the question of Does Defense Win Titles? Louis is back again, making me reconsider my position on attack vs defense, addressing additional questions that were raised from his article last week. His conclusion remains the same, limiting your opposition yields more marginal points on average compared to creating more. databetweenthelines.substack.com/p/does-defence…

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·2 Eki

@YankeeGunner @scottjwillis Don't rethink! If you look at it arithmetically (+-0.1 goals), then yes. If you think about it geometrically (+-10%), then no. With 1.5v0.5, you have a 3x ratio. With 2.5v1.5, it shrinks to 1.67x. I don't think a team with 2.5v1.5 is as good as 1.5v0.5.

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YankeeGunner@YankeeGunner·2 Eki

@scottjwillis this is such interesting stuff that really forces me to rethink my priors

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·12 Eyl

@scottjwillis I wonder how the defenses would change. I'd suspect a real low block would have to come out to prevent the midfielders from really having a go at it, perhaps leaving teams like Arsenal/City with more open space in the box.

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·12 Eyl

If there was going to be a “two goal line” added to soccer like a three point line in basketball, How far out? What shape? Any other restrictions on it? I like the idea of a two goal line but I especially like trying to think about the optimal positioning.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·16 May

@scottjwillis Definitely. Was surprised a univariate ols was that high.

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·16 May

@AustinStarkwea1 Yep. I’ve done similar type regressions and wages are a much stronger predictor than just about anything else. Much larger than transfer spend.

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·14 May

This stuff is so disingenuous. Money is obviously a major factor and to pretend it isn't just makes us think you look at us like idiots. Manchester City have the most expensive squad acquired (at least through last full accounts), have spent 1.2 billion on players under Pep, with the highest overall wage bill.

afcstuff@afcstuff

Pep Guardiola on the Premier League: “It’s boring? It’s not. Before, it was money. If that’s the reason, Man United should have won ALL the titles. Second, Chelsea. Third, Arsenal. They’ve spent much more in the last five, six years than us, net spend.”

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·2 Oca

@joshua_t_white As you alluded to, that allowance was preceded by a carefully structured condition. And that 'if' condition was carrying a loooooot of weight in that statement.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·2 Kas

@joshua_t_white @toniwhited @charles_cy_wang @Tyler_Menzer I nominate Josh to spearhead the JFE reproducibility project. Happy to add my name to the byline in return for letting him know what he's doing wrong along the way.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·2 Kas

@dbergstresser Jokes on him. My students haven't listened to a word I've said.

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Daniel Bergstresser@dbergstresser·1 Kas

yhgtbkm

Paul Graham@paulg

College students mostly think what their teachers tell them to.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·1 Kas

@joshua_t_white Now we have Twitter endogeneity police?

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·1 Kas

@joshua_t_white Goes by the same name as the Columbia law blog? I'm gonna have to turn you down. Really enjoying meeting all these conspiracy theorists on Twitter.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·26 Eki

@odysseusbostick @dbergstresser Good luck to her! If I were a life science researcher, it'd be neuroscience. I enjoy reading their pop-science books. But apparently I should be reading Jane Austen as well!

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Daniel Bergstresser@dbergstresser·23 Eki

On the Stanford website listing the school’s undergraduate majors, “Modern Thought and Literature” has a photo of a preppy fellow reading Jane Austen’s novel “Mansfield Park” in front of an MRI machine.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·26 Eki

@scottjwillis I'll call you and @adamvoge...call you out for all that negativity you've been spouting about Ødegaard. He's intentionally going under the radar so City aren't tempted to steal him when they toss kdb aside at the end of the season.

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·25 Eki

I don't even like it when my family calls me, there is no way I am letting people on here make calls to me. That's a feature that is turned off instantly.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·26 Eki

@aedmans @GoslingTj @DirkJenter @J_Fin_Economics Congrats! I've been using this paper to guide how I think about board/investor interactions for a couple years now!

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Alex Edmans@aedmans·26 Eki

(1/4) CEO Compensation: Evidence From the Field (w/ @GoslingTj and @DirkJenter) is Open Access in @J_Fin_Economics. We survey directors and investors on CEO pay. They disagree on many issues, unlike the standard assumption of a single principal. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·19 Eki

@dbergstresser Yes, we are all envious of the beautiful New England fall weather. Look forward to joining you on your run at the next conference

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Daniel Bergstresser@dbergstresser·19 Eki

ZXX

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·19 Eki

@malcolmwardlaw How bout 'Malcolm in the Middle: Redux'...watch @malcolmwardlaw take over the chamber with the agenda of focusing on how to (correctly) count dependent variables. Spoiler- he's the first speaker to be chased out by both parties, ending w G Santos in charge.

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Malcolm Wardlaw@malcolmwardlaw·18 Eki

@AustinStarkwea1 okay, someone get dog on the phone.

The Recount@therecount

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) fails to win the Speakership on the second ballot. 22 Republicans voted for other candidates — up from 20 in the first round. Jordan flipped 2 members while losing 4 new ones. All 212 Democrats again supported Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

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Malcolm Wardlaw@malcolmwardlaw·18 Eki

Technically, there’s nothing in the Constitution that says the Speaker of the House can’t be a basketball playing golden retriever.

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·19 Eki

@scottjwillis Is this pre-suspension IT? Then yes. I have no idea what he's been doing the better part of a yr, and Brentford seem to be rushing to unload him

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Scott Willis@scottjwillis·18 Eki

I was thinking about this today, I think I would say with 60%-70% certainty that Ivan Toney is better than Eddie Nketiah. What would you all think?

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Austin Starkweather@AustinStarkwea1·18 Eki

@malcolmwardlaw Ha. I figured this was some big test to see who knows their memes. I'm just glad to know that if it was...I would have passed.

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Malcolm Wardlaw@malcolmwardlaw·18 Eki

@AustinStarkwea1 Aww man, I’d forgotten about this meme. Thanks, you brought a little light into my day. 😁

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Keşfet

@bootcutgenes @scottjwillis @YankeeGunner @toniwhited @charles_cy_wang @Tyler_Menzer @dbergstresser @adamvoge