Avik Roy

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Avik Roy

Avik Roy

@Avik

Co-Founder & Chairman @FREOPP. Chief Strategy Officer @Strive $ASST $SATA. @Forbes @BitcoinPolicy @AspenAGLN @BPC_Bipartisan et al. Pronounced “OH-vick.”

Austin, TX Katılım Haziran 2009
9.2K Takip Edilen50.6K Takipçiler
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
New @FREOPP: Our paper on how to end the cycle of tuition hikes and student loan bailouts, and actually reduce the cost of higher education, building on reforms in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
FREOPP@FREOPP

Taxpayers spend $150 billion per year on student financial aid. A quarter of that debt will never be repaid, and it's taxpayers rather than the colleges who will absorb the loss. @Avik and @JustinWStapley outline how Congress can implement accountability: freopp.org/whitepapers/hi…

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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
Great summary by @AdamBLiv of the multi-trillion-dollar addressable market for $SATA, looking at money-market mutual funds as a particular benchmark. @Strive $ASST
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv

SATA is going to be massive. You just have to look at the total addressable market of retail investor cash sitting in low-risk, liquid vehicles like money market funds and bank savings/checking-style accounts. 13% yield with a potential 1-2% volatility will be the highest Sharpe ratio on the planet. Undeniably competitive, especially in a falling rate environment. Retail money market fund assets right now is about $3.08 trillion, that is out of $7.75 total MMFs. This data is from ici.org as of this month. Retail savings accounts and bank deposits are at $10.2 trillion. Sum the two and you could call it $13 trillion out there yielding 0.4%? Bitcoin happened to be the perfect base to build a highly liquid, low volatility vehicle that is objectively a better product for retail. The choice is pretty simple at this point, either the average Joe will decide to let his cash position get eviscerated by inflation or he'll keep it in a stock that retains its value and pays 13%, which is likely double the rate of monetary debasement in any given year. 0.1% of $13 trillion is $13 billion, about 13x the size of Strive's Bitcoin hoard currently. 1% is $130 billion. How quickly can the company scale to a $10 billion balance sheet with zero debt? How soon can the ratings agencies play ball and open up the addressable market for SATA? The passive bid on Bitcoin from this will be immense, and the growth story for the ASST NAV multiple is totally there. Do you really only assign a 25% premium for 43% amplified Bitcoin with an endless stream of capital additions that are compounding at 20-30% per year? How does this NOT enable much more issuance of ASST at favorable pricing to the shareholders? Bitcoin compounds, the liability doesn't, coverage ratio improves, risk profile improves... MAN this is quite the machine. Even in the world where SATA isn't meeting every mandate requirement for allocation, the Bitcoin NAV growth potential is just mind boggling here. Can't be bearish on ASST or Bitcoin here. Quite the contrary.

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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@JoshMandell6 @Strategy I’d steer you in a different direction. The value of an investment grade rating is there’s trillions in capital (corporate balance sheets, pensions, governments, etc) requiring IG ratings to invest in $MSTR’s existing securities. Fixing that brings in an avalanche of capital.
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Josh Man
Josh Man@JoshMandell6·
I have to believe that the ultimate goal of @Strategy is to issue long-term "straight" (non-convertible), investment grade debt. Why? First, there would be no mismatch between the duration of this debt financing and that of a Bitcoin super cycle. Second, any straight debt that is issued with their current credit rating would require covenants within the debenture that can trigger default. A common example is breaching a debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Say the bond agreement says the company can't let that ratio go above four times. If earnings drop or they take on too much debt and it hits five, that's a covenant breach and an event of default. The company cannot be so fragile when compared to Bitcoin itself. Almost every junk bond has some version of a leverage covenant or a coverage test like a fixed charge coverage ratio. Investment-grade bonds usually have few or none of these maintenance covenants. I believe that almost everything that the firm has done of late has been designed to ameliorate concerns raised in the S&P credit review. I'm very happy to see the company addressing these issues head on. $MSTR $STRC @shirishjajodia @phongle @Werkman
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@HaileyLennonBTC I have to say there are some decent airports nowadays. LGA terminal B is surprisingly good. DTW a long time underrated winner. The new SLC.
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Avik Roy retweetledi
Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
🔥STRIVE DOMINATING - 13% YIELD... PAID DAILY! MOST BULLISH NEWS EVER🔥 Strive just announced a 13% annual yield paid EVERY business day starting June 16th. Daily dividends. Made possible by 15,000 Bitcoin. Zero debt. Zero encumbered coins. The Daily Dividend Company has officially arrived and the entire monthly-preferred sector is about to get vaporized. In this video I break down why SATA is the most structurally elegant capital markets product launched in a decade, how the volatility-killing mechanics work, why crypto-native capital is going to flood into this thing, and what it means for Greg in Toledo who's currently choosing between travel softball fees and his Kia Telluride payment. Monthly is legacy. Daily is the new standard. The Bitcoin treasury sector just got rewritten in real time:
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
1. The peg between tSATA & $SATA is the responsibility of the token issuer, not Strive. 2. SATA IPO’d at $80 when bitcoin was at $110k. SATA has performed very well since, despite a near-50% drawdown in BTC. 3. We internally manage the ratio of preferreds/NAV (i.e. the amplification ratio) to withstand a 50% bitcoin drawdown. 4. We have an 18 month cash & marketable securities reserve, precisely so that dividends are protected against BTC drawdowns. 5. Not just new entrants, but also existing holders benefit from averaging down their SATA cost basis. If SATA went back to $80, for example, the yield would jump to 16.25%, and I’d personally be buying as much of it as I could. I expect many institutional holders would do the same.
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
Let's assume a future where tokenized SATA (tSATA) is a material percent of issuance. A levered un-wind occurs and price de-pegs in cascading liquidations. Sure, yield for new entrants goes up, but existing holders are getting liquidated and not benefitting from a higher implied yield. Simultaneously, BTC price drops 50%+. The market is spooked and refuses to catch the falling knife, even with temptation of higher yield. STRIVE now has less BTC on balance sheet than outstanding perpetuals because of price-drop. This spooks the market even further. tSATA is not re-pegging. As the CSO of Strive, what would you recommend the company does in this situation? @Avik.
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
🚨Calling all STRC & SATA Experts🚨 There is a low probability, high risk event with STRC and similar instruments I can't get seem to solve. Can any STRC experts assuage my concerns here?
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
Let’s see if I’m following, because your dots are not connecting: a *temporary* spike in crypto market lending rates (not actual benchmark interest rates like Fed funds) leads to a deleveraging in DeFi land that somehow takes down the much larger TradFi market, and as a result SATA trades below par. Strive retains its 18 month cash & marketable securities reserve to pay dividends, and the $ value of the dividend is unaffected, but the yield goes up because SATA trades lower. Strive has no debt and therefore cannot be liquidated. Your theory of how Strive is unable to withstand this blip is what, exactly?
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
@Avik The higher implied yield only applies to new entrants, not existing levered ones. There is also falling knife risk. What if market doesn’t not buy below par because higher yield does not offset fear of further de peg?
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Nasdaq Exchange
Nasdaq Exchange@NasdaqExchange·
Strive is a structured finance company and institutional asset manager focused on disciplined capital allocation and long-term value creation. Proud to celebrate $ASST! #NasdaqListed
Nasdaq Exchange tweet mediaNasdaq Exchange tweet mediaNasdaq Exchange tweet mediaNasdaq Exchange tweet media
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buck
buck@puckberley·
@Avik @unchained Yep 😢. For now at least. @benthecarman and I are taking a bit of a hiatus for now. Could come back either with us or someone else willing to take on the baton!
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buck
buck@puckberley·
The past month has been a big one for me professionally. I spoke at 3 conferences, hosted our final Austin Bitdevs after 5 years of monthly meetups, but biggest of all I made the very difficult decision to step down as VP of Engineering @unchained after over 6 years of building bitcoin-native financial services infrastructure. I'm incredibly grateful for the opportunities I was given and proud of all we built in that time. It was a phenomenal team I had the pleasure to work with and help build over that time. In the meantime, this is far from the end of my bitcoin journey as I’m proud to announce that I’ve joined the Board of the Bitcoin Scholars Fund (@bitcoinscholars)! I'm honored to have been considered to join this group of proven bitcoin builders and educators and excited for what the next year will bring. Our mission is ambitious: raising $21 million for K-12 Bitcoin education by 2027. This goal resonates with me deeply as an educator, a father, and a long-time Bitcoiner. I’ve had the privilege of working with my fellow board members previously and admire the "start-up energy" they’re bringing to the non-profit sector. We aren't just funding kids; we’re building the foundational infrastructure for the next generation's financial literacy.
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@david_seroy How exactly is Strive in trouble? As others have explained to you, if DeFi degens dump SATA, its dividend yield goes up, making the security more attractive to TradFi holders.
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
@Avik Repo spiked 20% in 2019…. Regardless, if SATA becomes materially tokenized and looped in DeFi then unwind risk + BTC drops 50% means STRIVE is in trouble. In that situation, will you bail out the tokenized SATA issuers to restore confidence. Or let them burn?
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Frederik Marain
Frederik Marain@frederikmarain·
That settles it. @Noahpinion with the definitive overview of the recent Europe-is-poorer-than-US debate in the blogosphere + explainer about different ways of measuring GDP (growth) + other measures of *material* well-being. noahpinion.blog/p/yes-european…
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Ben Werkman
Ben Werkman@Werkman·
Today, $SATA traded approximately $43M in volume, equal to ~8.7% of its notional amount outstanding. $ASST traded approximately ~$93M in volume, equal to ~7.2% of its market cap. Liquidity is building.
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Matt Cole
Matt Cole@ColeMacro·
Tomorrow, @Strive will ring the opening bell at @Nasdaq to commemorate $SATA, the first security in history to pay daily dividends.   Until then, turn the volume up.   The Daily Dividend Remix.
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@david_seroy The FTX collapse was a massive deleveraging event for crypto. Did $MSTR collapse?
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@david_seroy Sure they do, but the interest rates don’t move to 20% unless the benchmark rates are there also. It’s a very different market in scale and behavior. And remember that Strive has no debt.
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@david_seroy The volatility in leverage that you suppose will happen in a DeFi environment won’t happen in a TradFi environment with extremely deep arbitrage-based liquidity pools.
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
@Avik Your first sentence implies tokenized $SATA will not exist in comparable size. Your second sentences implies the opposite by saying CLARITY will more easily allow tokenization and therefore DeFi. Which one is it?
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Avik Roy
Avik Roy@Avik·
@david_seroy So you believe that DeFi volume of $SATA will dwarf TradFi volume? I suppose that’s theoretically possible but extremely improbable, especially if CLARITY passes and TradFi can participate in the tokenization.
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David Seroy 🏔️
David Seroy 🏔️@david_seroy·
@Avik I’m not referring to Fed funds rate. I’m talking about rate spikes in on-chain DeFi which are increasingly tokenizing these perpetual preferreds. Its orthogonal to Fed funds rate.
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