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$MU HBM DRAM bottleneck, supply constraint, pricing power makes this stock actually a safe stock despite the parabolic move.

Forget about memory supply catching up to demand. The gap is in fact widenng. $DRAM

Maybe this time is different, but the arguments for why memory isn’t a cyclical commodity are the exact same arguments we see every time

@ftr_investors @munster_gene @RiskReversal I thought he learned his lesson during the dot com boom and bust. I guess not!

Is this AI cycle really different? Gene Munster thinks so @munster_gene His take on Micron $MU, AI demand, and why we're still early is worth watching👇 Great podcast by @RiskReversal

@J5jayfive @eugene_dol35177 “It’s different this time” the most dangerous words spoken when it comes to investing!

@Awhartd @eugene_dol35177 Possible…. But currently (as of today) Bloomberg is reporting that Capex spend is seeing positive ROI. I would consider updating your mental model. This is not the same memory market as previous cycles. Look at the real data my friend.

I don’t know who needs to hear this but $CXMT does not and cannot make the type of high margin memory $MU supplies to hyper scalers. Even if they get approved to supply $AAPL, they are just taking some low margin business that frankly $MU would love to do less of.

@TBU12345678 Heard the same type of logic from guys that road the dotcom bubble all the way down. This is very negative for the DRAM companies. If you think this stops at Apple you are crazy. This is just the opening salvo from the much more politically connected tech companies against MU.

put your money where your mouth is. if you think this, long $META short $MU in size. you won’t!

@J5jayfive @eugene_dol35177 The next nail in the coffin is when when one big cap tech cuts capex or pushes it out due to high memory prices. It’s coming. Repost the end of the day MU is a commodity company and will follow the boom bust cycles of them.

Which dot com bubble companies had revenue like this and went to the bottom? You’re conflating companies that did nothing with one that will be sitting on hundreds of billions in cash. Also…what intervention are you suggesting is possible. There are 3 companies that can make this product. It’s virtually impossible to enter the space. This is a physics and math issue.

@MelvinInvests @_Investinq Heard the same type of logic from guys that road the dotcom bubble all the way down. This is very negative for the DRAM companies. If you think this stops at Apple you are crazy. This is just the opening salvo from the much more politically connected tech companies against MU.

Apple wants to buy cheap Chinese memory chips and the everyone thinks it's bad news for Micron but it's not (Save this). CXMT is China's largest DRAM manufacturer, headquartered in Hefei and it was essentially irrelevant three years ago but today it holds 8% of the global DRAM market, up from just 3% a year ago. The company makes commodity DRAM, DDR4, DDR5, and LPDDR chips primarily for phones, PCs, and consumer devices. It is heavily subsidized by the Chinese government, operates at costs well below market rates, and has been placed on the Pentagon's Chinese Military Company blacklist due to alleged ties to the People's Liberation Army. Apple raised MacBook Pro prices by 15% this week and is now desperate to find cheaper memory. Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that everything needs to be on the table when it comes to memory sourcing, and Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for a license to buy CXMT chips technically possible, but complicated by the Pentagon blacklist. This spooked some memory investors but it shouldn't have. Here are the five reasons why this barely moves the needle for Micron. First, Micron essentially already walked away from this market. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all shifted more than 70% of their DRAM capacity toward High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI, the premium product running inside every Nvidia GPU and every major AI data center. CXMT is filling a hole that Micron chose to vacate because HBM generates 3–5x more revenue per wafer. Second, CXMT cannot make HBM, its most ambitious stated goal is to begin certifying HBM3 for mass production by end of year, a full generation behind where SK Hynix and Micron already are in HBM3E production today. The AI memory market, which is the entire bull thesis, is simply not accessible to CXMT at any meaningful scale. Third, the dollar opportunity is in a completely different product. The $280–530 billion memory opportunity Micron is selling into over the next two years is almost entirely HBM for data centers, automotive systems, and humanoid robots, none of which CXMT competes in today or realistically can in the near future. Fourth, Apple is a consumer device customer, not an AI customer. The memory that goes into a MacBook Air is commodity LPDDR while the memory that goes into an Nvidia GB200 AI cluster is HBM3E. These products share a name and almost nothing else. Losing Apple to CXMT on consumer DRAM is the equivalent of a luxury steakhouse losing a lunch sandwich order. Fifth, the regulatory outcome is far from certain. The Trump administration has been tightening, not loosening, export controls on Chinese semiconductor companies and even if Apple gets a narrow license, it would likely come with restrictions that limit scale, product type, and duration. Bears will try to scare you but do not fall for it, long Micron. Follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI, semis and the next big market themes.

@_HalalTrader_ Heard the same type of logic from guys that road the dotcom bubble all the way down. This is very negative for the DRAM companies. If you think this stops at Apple you are crazy. This is just the opening salvo from the much more politically connected tech companies against MU.

$MU This is the level of stupidity we’re competing with. Folks are unaware how complex is memory manufacturing and building new supply takes 5 years. China will not have enough memory to supply its own companies for the next decade. They’ll only realize this in hindsight once all the alpha is priced in.

@J5jayfive @eugene_dol35177 Heard the same type of logic from guys that road the dotcom bubble all the way down. This is very negative for the DRAM companies. If you think this stops at Apple you are crazy. This is just the opening salvo from the much more politically connected tech companies against MU.

You’re not appreciating the scale of the supply/demand imbalance. All it would do is give them more high margin capacity. Even if they doubled capacity (which this wouldn’t do) they couldn’t meet the demand. Why did hyperscalers start signing long term agreements with price floors higher than post cycle peaks if the demand can be caught up to relatively easily? The demand gap is getting larger. Not smaller.

@The_RockTrading DRAM bros are fucked!!

Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT

@zerohedge Between AAPL and MSFT they will get it!!!

Done and done Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT Memory limit down Monday

@zerohedge SNDK and MU down 20% on Monday.

Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT

@zerohedge Boom goes DRAM stocks. Bloodbath on Monday!!!!

Apple Seeks US Clearance to Buy Memory Chips From CXMT: FT

@ContrarianCurse Capex by check writers will be pushed out now!

Oh

@ContrarianCurse All downhill for DRAM. Boooommmm!!!!!

@zerohedge Flood the market with Chinese DRAM!!!

soon

@zerohedge Watch semi’s sell off and software rip tomorrow!!!!

Micron Soars After Reporting Blowout Earnings, Boosts Guidance zerohedge.com/markets/micron…