Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr

Weekly Engine #94 The market is giving bulls reasons for optimism again. Loud headlines, new reports, confident calls that Bitcoin's bottom is already in. Weekly Engine does not react to noise. It looks at data only. This issue covers the new Bitcoin Adjusted Realized Price Bands (Alive Coins) model, why the current bounce still does not confirm a reversal, and most importantly, the system's decision for this week: what exactly changed in the data and how the system interprets the market right now. 👇 @adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-252986013?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@adlerscryptoi…

@Mabub2Abdulaziz My pleasure.

@AxelAdlerJr Nice addition Axel. Love pure price-based tools. Will keep an eye on the alerts.

Guys, I added alerts: Bitcoin Squeeze Detector, this indicator uses price data only, so treat it accordingly. The SQL is configured on the 1-hour timeframe, when the signal fires, a Squeeze can be expected. The SQL cannot determine the direction of the Squeeze. cryptoquant.com/alert/preset?i…

Price is now rising faster than on-chain supply circulation can confirm. This is not a bearish signal, but neither is it strong bullish confirmation. The most accurate way to read it is: recovery without full on-chain confirmation In other words, the market is improving, but without a strong and broad-based expansion in on-chain liquidity yet.

Bitcoin Bear/Bull Market

@ki_young_ju This chart also needs alerts, I'll try to add them in the coming days.

@AxelAdlerJr great visualization as usual

The market has been compressed for the last two days.

+8,512 BTC hit exchanges in recent days. Price: $76K -> $80.3K. Still no real selling pressure. Coins are moving to exchanges, but holders are not selling into the rally. Morning Brief #161 👇 axeladlerjr.com/investors-move…

@_nym21_ I just sent u a message in DM.

@AxelAdlerJr since x dms are buggy, letting you know that I never got anything if you sent something

Good morning, folks. This week, several prominent voices with 500K+ followers declared that Bitcoin has bottomed. Bold call. The chart below shows a regime model calibrated across four complete cycles. In every single one, Bitcoin's bear market ended only after entering a Strong Bear phase. That phase has not appeared in the current cycle. Draw your own conclusions.

@TeddyVision A lot of good stuff in the report.

Weekly Engine #94 The market is giving bulls reasons for optimism again. Loud headlines, new reports, confident calls that Bitcoin's bottom is already in. Weekly Engine does not react to noise. It looks at data only. This issue covers the new Bitcoin Adjusted Realized Price Bands (Alive Coins) model, why the current bounce still does not confirm a reversal, and most importantly, the system's decision for this week: what exactly changed in the data and how the system interprets the market right now. 👇 @adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-252986013?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@adlerscryptoi…

@_nym21_ Ok. I’ll DM you I have a quick question about the API.

1. taking about MVRV itself, again the world is so much more complex than a simple ratio of the average bitcoin price of each coin: take for example the amount of capital invested, where it sits, the drawdown that each investor felt, etc.. none of that is reflected by RP or its ratio yes it went below 1. every single bear in the past but each time was a higher low, and the current bitcoin market is so so so so much different than ever, so many (top) metrics broke this cycle, would it be that strange for bottom metrics to do the same ? Finally, there is no *reason* for the ratio to go below 1, why should it ? To show pain ? I can show you many metrics that investors had a ton of it (again, could get worse who knows), it wasn't just a walk in the park 2. fair, it's just the happened it the past so it will happen again, RP by its definition WILL stop going below 1 at some point, could be this cycle, could be the next, we'll see To be honest it's not your post specifically but the whole CT timeline, I've seen so many terrible takes (not saying this one is) that I had to speak up You're very welcome, my pleasure to help this space, feel ping me if you have any questions or feature requests

@_nym21_ I'm not going to delete anything. 1) You don't know what's inside it and there are 100 lines of SQL in there. 2) I wouldn't plan that far ahead. Thank you 🤝very much for the API and for your software.

@AxelAdlerJr will you delete this tweet when you'll be proven wrong ? 1. too lossy of a metric, reality is so much more nuanced than a simple ratio 2. biased towards cheap coins while we *may* (probably not) hit purple this cycle we won't the next one (unless MASSIVE revive of old supply)

This is the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model, calibrated to Bitcoin's live circulating supply. The lower bound of the model is now below $59K that is RP Alive. This is the zone where bottom formation can begin. But this is not a one or two week process. The base case is roughly six months. And the core thesis remains the same: real demand is formed only over the long term. Not on emotion, not on local bounces, but when the market starts to see forward-looking value again. In other words, when genuine spot demand begins to return.

@idaepyo243992 The chart doesn't predict, it observes. Four cycles, same sequence.

@AxelAdlerJr The case of past cycles may still be correct now. There isn't. This prediction of yours is deplorable. That's foolish.

@dirkcryptodiggy Public calls, public accountability. The chart speaks for itself.

@AxelAdlerJr name these people so we can remind them of their claims once BTC drops below 50k or 40k or even 30k later this year

I've relaunched the campaign with no slot limits, if you missed out yesterday, now's your chance 👇 adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com/spring

@ttsebre adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com/spring

@AxelAdlerJr Is the discount still available? Because now the link leads to regular price.

50 spots. 5 days. Then the price goes back up. Adler Insight 💎Premium is now available for $180/year. That's $15/month or $0.49/day. Regular price - $30/month. Inside: Weekly Engine - a weekly on-chain signal showing where Bitcoin stands in the cycle right now. BTC Decision Terminal - a decision-making system for the BTC market. Not interpretation. Not a forecast. A system. 50 spots at −50% 👇 sale.adlerinsight.com

@ttsebre I haven't had such cases, so I can't give a precise answer. If there are any issues, write to me in DM Substack.

@AxelAdlerJr Is it possible to switch with old email?

Today's growth - institutional or retail? The answer determines how sustainable it is. Breaking it down in SQL of the Week #019 👇 @adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-251978166?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@adlerscryptoi…