Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr

Bitcoin’s 2026-2031 price forecast is live - and the updated Weekly Engine is nearing a critical stress transition. What’s confirmed, what’s still at risk, and what the system signals for next week - in Adler Insight Report #87 👇 @adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-228146627?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@adlerscryptoi…

Buy and Hold works until the wrong 30% drawdown destroys your confidence. Weekly Engine helps you stay exposed when conditions are healthy and step aside when risk starts rising - so you can follow a process instead of guessing under pressure.

@CryptoFonky 👀

@AxelAdlerJr How does it look like from 2021 TOP ATH? I guess there were more losses in june 2022 than here in that picture. Tx.

Realized losses hit cycle extremes. But coins still are not moving. That is not what a typical breakdown looks like. Something is changing under the surface. ☕️ Adler AM #130 👇 axeladlerjr.com/realized-losse…

Infographic on current market conditions

Risk OFF remains active.

@BTCMarketLab 💯

@AxelAdlerJr Liquidity is back, but not yet deployed — that’s the key gap.

USDT + USDC market cap just reversed from -$8.1B to +$4.5B - but exchange inflow is still stuck at 0.68x of normal. Liquidity returned first. Will BTC be next? ☕️ Morning Brief 129 👇 axeladlerjr.com/stablecoin-cap…

@btcanalytica Actually, there is - it's the halving.

I am sorry, but this is getting ridiculous… Of course you can use MA, Z-scores or any other technique that allows you to compare prices over time without acknowledging the Power Law. They are just describing the same underlying pattern. There are no physics of BTC, there is a market.

Visual overview of the current market

In today's SQL of the Week - a new 2026 model that helps assess how overloaded exchanges are with coins sitting at a loss. This model delivers more real insights than classic on-chain metrics like Exchange Inflow. At the peak of the current cycle it recorded maximum LTH activity, showed the scale and depth of the latest capitulation, and revealed several additional structural signals that are hard to spot with the naked eye. Full model breakdown and live chart - inside the issue.👇 @adlerscryptoinsights/note/c-229589324?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=46gt68" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@adlerscryptoi…

The main volume of Bitcoin supply is now concentrated in the $75K-$90K range. This is the key cost basis zone where the market will decide whether it acts as support or resistance.

@MRadarCrypto 🫡

Thanks @AxelAdlerJr for the charts

🚨 Bitcoin a purgé l’euphorie… mais pas la douleur. Depuis le pic d’octobre, le marché a complètement changé de visage. 👉 Le MVRV Z-Score a chuté de 74 % 👉 On est passé d’un marché en surchauffe… à une zone neutre. Le MVRV Z-Score mesure l'écart entre la capitalisation boursière du Bitcoin et sa capitalisation réalisée, normalisé en fonction de la volatilité. Les bandes +1SD, +2SD et +3SD définissent les zones historiques de surchauffe, tandis que la moyenne mobile sur 365 jours (365DMA) dans ce modèle sert de ligne dynamique de reprise de la dynamique. Traduction simple : La survalorisation a été nettoyée L'excès spéculatif est derrière nous Mais. Le vrai signal n’est pas là. 👉 Le aSOPR est sous 1.0 depuis 55 jours consécutifs L'aSOPR (Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) correspond au rapport entre la valeur réalisée et la valeur initiale des Bitcoins dépensées. Une valeur supérieure à 1,0 signifie que les BTC sont vendues avec un bénéfice, une valeur inférieure, qu'elles sont vendues à perte. Et ça, c’est critique. Parce que ça veut dire une chose : ➡️ les investisseurs vendent à perte depuis presque 2 mois Pas ponctuellement. Pas marginalement. Structurellement. Lecture du marché actuelle : • Le marché n’est plus cher • Mais les acteurs sont encore en train de capituler • La pression vendeuse n’est pas épuisée On n’est PAS dans un retournement On est dans une phase de digestion prolongée 📊 Le vrai pivot à surveiller : Pour parler de changement de régime, il faut : aSOPR > 1.0 pendant plusieurs jours MVRV qui remonte vers sa moyenne (≈ 1.8) Sans ça ? 👉 Chaque rebond reste fragile 👉 Chaque hausse = opportunité de sortir à break-even pour beaucoup ⚠️ Conclusion : Le marché n'est plus fiévreux, mais il n'est pas pour autant en pleine forme. Un petit détail, si un élément permet au prix d'exploser soudainement, ses métriques accuseront forcément un retard, mais confirmeront tout de même la reprise. Et tant que les pertes continuent d’être réalisées, 👉 la pression vendeuse reste le moteur dominant.

@Psychometriks Yes, his rhetoric still matters for the market.

@AxelAdlerJr is anybody still listening that craB?

Reminder: today’s FOMC decision is at 2:00 PM ET. Powell’s press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/cal…

Bitcoin Spot Volume (Weekly Timeframe): Price is rising, while volume is declining.

@J33412279544 By the way, the frontend dev updated the chart yesterday. They’ve added mouse wheel scrolling, it’s not exactly what I asked for, but it’s definitely better than before. Check it out: axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-price-…

@AxelAdlerJr There seems to currently be people with a lot of power who are actively encouraging black swan events.

The Cycle Extremes Index has reached 67.7% - entering the Bear Extreme zone. Bitcoin is now trading 40% below its ATH. The indicator shows an extreme bearish deviation across on-chain metrics - historically, levels like this have aligned more often with accumulation zones than with continued downside. As long as no black swan event hits the market.

Visual guide to the current market

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: -74% from the October peak. aSOPR: below 1.0 for 55 days straight. Overheating is gone. But sellers aren't done yet. Full breakdown ☕️ Adler AM #128 👇axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-has-le…

Visual guide to the current market