frank

@CommodMkt @threadreaderapp unroll

The leadership rotated, but the trend did not. The super cycle powers ahead. The Quantix Commodity Index (QCI, the modern GSCI) Total Return is up 217% since October 2020, when we called the super cycle. The names rotated — gold, silver, copper, oil, live cattle, coffee, cocoa, aluminium. But not the trend. Nasdaq returned 130%. The S&P 500, 85%. Commodities were the top asset class. Nobody allocated. Capital piled into the Mag 7 — $770 billion of 2026 capex, nearly half of it commodities. Amazon alone consumes more than 3 million BOE/d of primary energy, more than most OPEC countries. The Mag 7 is the largest unhedged molecule short ever underwritten by an equity market... …at the exact moment supply has never been more constrained. Hormuz is shut-in. China has weaponized the periodic table. Copper mines remain shuttered. Ukrainian drones push deeper into Russia, taking commodity supply with them. A multi-polar world demands thicker supply chains. Copper and the "atom" complex print fresh records this week. Every signal that should drive allocators into the "molecule" complex is flashing green simultaneously — for the first time since the 1970s. And yet oil struggles to hold $105 — even as every signal points to a disruption that deepens and one we believe will outlast any "deal.” The energy sector trades 8% below its pre-Hormuz level and sits at 4.0% of the S&P 500 market cap. At $105 oil, its 2026 FCF yield is 13%. The S&P 500 is at 2.6% — the lowest since the GFC, 1,000bp below energy. The hyperscalers generate close to zero. Something has to give. This paradox explains why oil struggles to trade higher. Capital is not rotating. The marginal dollar of investable savings still flows into the AI buildout, not the physical infrastructure that feeds it. Until that reverses, Brent faces headwinds. The ceiling on oil is not Washington. It is Exxon's cost of capital — woefully mispriced. Underbidding the equities is the same as underbidding the back end of the curve. The back end is suppressing the entire curve and spot prices. 1/10

Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history. The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade. Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride. Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.

@BSonnone @jabariwatkins18 great intell🐼

There's still a ways to go until he commits on July 1, but FSU enters OV season in a great spot for 4-star WR Jabari Watkins (@jabariwatkins18). FSU is at the "very top right now" with four OV coming up for Watkins. More on his recruitment at Noles247: 247sports.com/college/florid…

@ErnestWongBWM thx what is your source?

No slowdown in data center construction by the hyperscalers, and increasingly borrowing money to fund the buildout

@GeorgeClancy47 you are a battered fag😂

Watching The Masters. I could be playing better than this damn amateur “Mason Howell” - kid couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Disgraceful. Sad to see Couples struggling. I met him once in 1978 at Johnny’s nightclub in Miami. Was a prick at first but he turned it around

@SteveB63557554 @BobbyWilson1004 i have no problem u have a dude fetish bra😂

@BobbyWilson1004 Must’ve been the only good shot he hit in 2 days.

Them Dawgs Is Hell… Wow 18 year old, Georgia commit Mason Howell… On 12. ⛳️ 🌺 🐦

@wildasamink_ @BobbyWilson1004 who he dog walked 7 and 6 in the us am final as a hs junior😂

@BobbyWilson1004 Gonna lose to a Tennessee kid :)

@JavierBlas david orr is a retarded faggot

Iran’s strategy all along has been to impose an unbearable economic cost on the US if Trump continued the war via oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, oil is down ~20% well below $100 a barrel. From that perspective, it’s clear who benefits most from the 2-week ceasefire off ramp. That’s Trump. But the question is: would Tehran extract significant concessions in the negotiations in terms of sanctions relief and/or somehow Hormuz control? Perhaps that’s the quid pro quo.

@orrdavid no-china forced their hand. however iran won. they control the strait and only a blockade of a blockade and chinas desperation got us here

Nobody is claiming to have made a definitive deal yet. It's a ceasefire while details are worked out. But the SoH is going to open in the meantime. Iran gave up its only card. Iran lost.

@ReneSellmann @threadreaderapp unroll

PS: These threads take time to write. I would appreciate a retweet to increase visibility 🙏 x.com/ReneSellmann/s…

Terry Smith is currently the favorite punching bag of the investing world. After a period of underperformance, his "Quality" strategy is under heavy fire. But if you actually listen to the 2026 AGM, you’ll find one of the most rational voices in the market. While everyone else is drunk on AI hype, he’s soberly dissecting the data. I’ve handpicked the 7 most thought-provoking slides 👇🏻

@Coachfp11 @sureshotjeff @bryandeno hard way to go out. sucks

@sureshotjeff @bryandeno I feel bad for him too. He’s been awesome.

Nick Townsend has been awesome for Yale. A tremendous player. Just missed 4 straight foul shots to give his team the lead late in the game. Shocking. @bryandeno

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball try ivyleaguechat if u havent. good discussion in season on yale

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Incredible!!! An honor to talk to you. I bought a $5 discount Yale bball used men’s varsity bag at the shop at the Church (JJLA) haha. 08

Very proud of this @YaleMBasketball team. Shooting better - even slightly - they easily beat Penn or UNCW. The two hand checks vs Penn, the no travel AND bailout foul (Makai Mason off foul 2015 vibes) the Celiscar OF…. Also coulda won these games.

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball dmv. great hoops. big bull on brathwaite

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Oh wow! That’s awesome! I’m in Maryland - Braithwaite country.

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball and have an aau program so i see these recruits in the summer

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Wow. How long you been a fan? You sound like a former part of the team!

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball since 94

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball yale missed simon this yr. great staff but he was good w analytics. blew that part against penn late and arguably not switching defense once in a while this yr. dont get it.

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball And coach Justin Simon, Sherrod, and not coach Sears. I saw Simon keep us up 1 at the half at UCONN #1 and 2004 champ.

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball freshman. best class yale has ever had of bigs (on potential)

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Excellent knowledge. 3 rising freshman? Or current guys? Celiscar - man that would be bad if he transferred. Mbeng andPoulakidis getting mins in nba may help.

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball worried abt celiscar. he is elite esp as he finds range which he did. fox going cold is good for us in med term maybe. 3 bigs coming in are legit

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Retention is usually our best feature:) 🤞 Fox was 0 for 5 or worse on open shots. He’s a terrific scorer. Next year should be a great junior class.

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball and 2025 cldve lost to princeton on lee's 3. its life. skinny margins when it matters

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball Agreed. Playing that road game vs Cornell also not helpful. It took some late calls both games and bad shooting both games. As a 23 year fan I never expected such success. This team shoulda gone farther but the 2024 team almost lost to brown

@sureshotjeff @YaleMBasketball yes they won a lot of close games. you lose some. sport usually doesnt end well. need retention though🤞

@Axeman203 @YaleMBasketball This team was so good for having lost so many good players. And regardless just so good. I’m glad the seniors got the ncaa tourney win. And last year’s Ivy win. Lots of good players coming up too. These were games they shoulda won but that’s ball