Bam💥
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@BAMpicksem
Helping you win daily | Professional + Master’s degree in Finance with focus on Big Data Analytics📈 | All my content is FREE!
🏀NBA Play #1 Luka Doncic O 40.5 PR -113 FD Absolutely love this spot. Luka is coming off of two series being guarded by Lou Dort and then Jaden McDaniels. Now he gets this Boston matchup where nobody really has the size and capability to defend him. Luka should draw the Jaylen Brown matchup. Jrue and White are both great perimeter defenders but they just don’t have enough size to effectively defend Luka. When the Celtics switch on guard-to-guard screens and Luka gets either of these matchups, he can easily muscle his was to his spots and get quality looks. We’ve seen this repeatedly in prior matchups. Then there’s the drop coverage aspect with Porzingis which leaves Luka with open three looks, or an open lane to the rim. We’ve targeted this all year. There’s also the aspect of how well Luka can draw fouls and get to the FT line with his elite deceleration when a defender fights over top of screens and trails him at his back. Bottom line, Luka is the best player on the floor here. Jrue will take Kyrie, and there’s nobody who can stop Luka in single coverage + open looks in drop. For the rebounds side of things, Luka guards Jrue on defense who sits in the corners and is always on position for uncontested weak side rebounds. In two games vs. Boston in the regular season, Luka is averaging 20.5 rebound chances per game with 15 RPG on 38.1 MPG. He converted at a very high percentage because only 11 of his 30 rebounds were contested. Very simple here, we should expect 10+ (12, 18 rebounds vs Boston in two regular season games).
🏀Recap 🪝Anthony Edwards O 26.5 Pts 🪝Naz Reid U 16.5 PR 🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌🪝❌ So dope.
🏀 NBA Plays for 5/28 Karl Anthony-Towns O 19.5 Pts -110 FD Kyle Anderson O 7.5 PA -135 DK Not much needed to say for KAT. This is as “buy low” as it gets. 18+ FGA in games 1 and 3 with his normal minute total. 16 FGA in game 2 when he was benched and played only 26 minutes. Pure volume play. He should see 38-40 minutes here facing elimination. He’s over in 4/5 games on the road playing 34-40 minutes with all starters + Naz Reid active. For Kyle Anderson, he’s one of their best defensive options against Luka. Finch said he probably should have played Anderson more. We could see about 18-20 minutes for him here. This has been a great series for Anderson who’s also been very efficient. He’s over this line in 4/5 games playing 15-22 minutes with all starters and Reid/NAW active.
