@RitholtzWealth @awealthofcs 2000 to 2010 had to be a ten year loss, right? Or am I misunderstanding the graph.
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Risk Premium
42 posts
Stories vs. Statistics
"No one is investing for 100 years but the point is the data shows the longer your time horizon, the better the compounding and the higher your probability for success."
buff.ly/pCWfWDw
by @awealthofcs
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@Defiantclient2 @QuantumScapeCo Surprised my research hasn't hit your radar. I'm biased, but think it's the most comprehensive "one stop shop" covering introduction all the way through corporate valuation.
riskpremiumresearch.substack.com/p/quantumscape…
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$QS: My updated list of favourite DD links for @QuantumScapeCo 👇
Read the latest quarterly presentations and shareholder letters: ir.quantumscape.com/resources/even…
QS 101 by Co-Founder & CTO Tim Holme: x.com/Defiantclient2…
February 2026 Bloomberg Interview with Tim Holme: x.com/Defiantclient2…
What is QS? (High level summary Part 1): reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE…
Where is QS? (High level summary Part 2): reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE…
When is QS? (High level summary Part 3): reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE…
MUST WATCH video by Ricky of TwoBitDaVinci at the Eagle Line Inauguration Event: youtube.com/watch?v=aUT6LP…
High level summary: topsecretstocks.substack.com/p/quantumscape…
Summary of CTO Tim Holme in "Batteries Included" podcast in June 2025: x.com/JKeynesAlpha/s…
JKeynes multiple DD links: x.com/JKeynesAlpha/s…
Summary of TSLA speculation: x.com/topsecretstock…
Panasonic DD/speculation:
x.com/Defiantclient2…
Comparing SSB techs: reddit.com/r/QuantumScape…
Why the Real Risk for Quantumscape Is Execution, Not Competition: reddit.com/r/QuantumScape…
YouTube
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2
$QS: Chemistry in Action: Episode 1. From Atoms to Autos - Reinventing batteries with Dr. Tim Holme Really great ~19 minute interview here with @QuantumScapeCo Co-Founder and CTO @ironmantimholme! This might be the best QS 101 video I have ever seen. Concepts discussed ✍️ Introduction to Battery Technology + What is a battery? + Solid state batteries - a primer + What is a separator? + Ceramic processing + Why do batteries fail? Scaling Up Battery Production + Challenges of scaling up + Battery safety - how do you manage it? + Sustainability in batteries The Journey of a Scientist + Childhood spark + Lessons from failure + A day in the life of a scientist + Advice on skills needed by students to succeed + Motivation for students to pursue physical sciences youtube.com/watch?v=VfrA9-…
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@awealthofcs Earnings track liquidity, not inflation:
riskpremium.substack.com/i/183118933/wh…
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Everyone in the comments keeps yelling at me about money printing
Fiscal/monetary policy have obviously had an impact
But it's interesting to note that cumulative inflation was higher in the 80s/90s bull than this one
CPI:
1982-1999 +79.4%
2009-2026 +56.2%
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The S&P 500 is now up ~17% annually for the past 17 years
We're less than 60% away from perhaps the greatest US bull market of all-time
This is now a pantheon-level bull market
awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/an-all…
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@hussmanjp Great usage of the equity-bond yield spread. I think it's the best "relative" valuation heuristic.
This is my favorite plot that breaks down different relative valuation regimes. We shouldn't expect to be compensated for increasing our exposure to risk.
riskpremium.substack.com/p/bonds-away
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New market comment is up! 🐳
How I Learned to Love the Bubble (Even Before it Bursts)
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@CulperResearch I'm convinced by "these aircrafts", he's referring to eVTOLs, in general. I watched the interview and he seemed to be pretty careful about forward-looking statements regarding midnight and seemed to talk, more broadly, about eVTOLs
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We are again short Archer Aviation $ACHR. We have not commented publicly on Archer for some time, but we believe the Company continues to mislead investors, and may also now have Reg FD problems… We have 3 simple questions for CEO Goldstein.
Culper@CulperResearch
NEW: We are short Archer Aviation $ACHR - and we're extending a $1 million wager to @jimmyfallon, who has earned millions to promote $ACHR. Jimmy - if you truly believe in Archer, prove it. Our offer, and our full report now available at culperresearch.com
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@singulieroblige @atrupar Is construction it's own category? If the plants aren't operational and "manufacturing" only includes people working in plants that are running, then it makes sense that those numbers haven't ticked up yet.
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HASSETT: We have a list of the groundbreakings. It's really quite striking
FABER: Manufacturing job numbers are actually down
HASSETT: That's in part because people haven't turned the machines on yet
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@oliwalkerjones Are you guys using R&D money to make a life size replica of the robot from the 1986 movie "Short Circuit"?
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What’s this important $JOBY feature? Wrong guesses only 😄
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@MebFaber I'm curious your thoughts on currency hedging. Dev Ex-US has returned about 9% in local currency terms. They haven't really seen any multiple expansion, so forward returns should remain in that ballpark. I've gone 70/30 unhedged/hedged to kind of split the difference.
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@BullPrototype @TheCompoundNews Yeah, big swing and a miss by Josh Brown, here.
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@TheCompoundNews Just a dumb thing to mix up Socialism and Communism…these are SHARED Burdens for a healthy functioning society like Healthcare and an education, NOT Socialism, and Communism, come on dude, nothing near it! And to suggest social programs while you rail against them (see pt. 1)
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Doing this, valuations in 2021 actually weren't as elevated as previously thought.
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If we try to capture that relationship in the CAPE ratio, we may get a better representation of earnings across cycles - are earnings in 2016 really representative of earnings in 2026 if the amount of liquidity in the system has doubled in that time period?
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There's a much tighter relationship between money supply & corporate earnings.
riskpremium.substack.com/p/fixing-cape-…
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My favorite Buffett stat is that Berkshire stock could drop 99% and he still would have outperformed the S&P 500 since he took over.
Enjoy retirement.
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@QCompounding So the question becomes:
Do we see 60x PE in the next 15 years to keep that trend going? Do we see 9% CAGR while multiples level off? Do we see <9% returns as multiples mean-revert? And do fundamentals outpace historical precedent?
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@QCompounding From 2009 to today, 7% annualized returns are attributable to PE expansion. That means fundamentals only provided 9% annualized growth of the 15% we've seen since the GFC.
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"If you bought the S&P 500 at a P/E of 5.3x in 1917, and sold it in 1999 at a P/E of 34x, your annual return would have been 11.6%. Only 2.3% p.a. came from the massive increase in P/E. The rest of your return came from the companies’ earnings and reinvestments." - Terry Smith
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@DeltaNorthMacro @TheCompoundNews @mattcerminaro Yep. This probably tells us more about Dec. 2020 than anything else.
In addition, 90s were falling rate environment while 2020 to now have been rising rate.
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@TheCompoundNews @mattcerminaro Isn’t this being indexed to 12/22/2020, which was almost the peak of the post-Covid stimulus boom in tech? Valuations of unprofitable tech (e.g. SPACs etc.) were insane the. Using that period as your base index, it makes sense valuations are flat to down.
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In the five years leading into the Tech Bubble peak, the forward P/E on the S&P 500 Tech Sector expanded by 43x. In the past five years it has contracted by -1x👀📊
Via: @mattcerminaro @ chartkidmatt.com🔥🔥
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@JayTrade17 My point is not about total returns. Stocks are suppose to produce dividends. They represent ownership of operating businesses. It's just about the current price of the shares. That's what is being offered to evidence economic growth, not prior dividends. It's all inflation.
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The Dow Jones first hit $1,000 in 1966. It’s now approaching $50,000. That 50x gain is being heralded as proof of a spectacular economic boom. But in 1966 gold was $35. Today it’s over $4,200. That's a 120x gain. In real terms, the Dow is 60% lower today than it was 60 years ago.
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@Ghodakiya_Ankur @KobeissiLetter Yeah, I'd like to see this normalized in some way (by gdp or M2 or total account assets or something). Just like everything else in finance, we'd expect this to basically always be at ATH.
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A big move, but context matters: margin debt is at a record in dollar terms, yet still lower as a share of total market cap than the peaks in 2000 or 2007.
So leverage is rising quickly, but the system is much larger. Still a clear sign sentiment and risk appetite are heating up.
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BREAKING: US margin debt jumped +$57.2 billion in October, to a record $1.2 trillion.
This marks the 6th consecutive monthly increase.
Margin debt for trading has risen +$285 billion, or +32%, year-to-date.
Over the last 6 months, margin debt has surged +39%, the biggest jump since 2000.
This has been an even larger increase than during the 2021 meme stock mania.
Leverage levels are through the roof.
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@hbkazemi33 @MikeZaccardi The R^2 is definitely wrong, but I'd bet the trend is still very much statistically significant after you correct for the autocorrelation effect.
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@MikeZaccardi That chart is garbage with so many overlapping periods. R-squared of 82% 🤡🤡🤡
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Valuation matters little in near term, but is almost all that matters in the long-term
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