BAanalytics

I’ve been looking for a spot to explain the nice guy strategy in the sportsbetting world (and my theory on how it trumps winning) and tonight’s spaces @yElff_ was the perfect spot. #sportsbetting

@mattkalish @CirclesOffHQ Anyways just to be clear I don’t give a fuck if you like me. Name one thing I spoke on or your sec form that isn’t straight fucking facts.

@BAanalytics_ @CirclesOffHQ Anyway just to be clear I don’t give a fuck if you like me. Name one thing I spoke on Kalshi that isn’t straight fucking facts.

For anyone interested in verifying the facts of the @mattkalish story on today’s @CirclesOffHQ episode, here is the publicly available to anyone SEC document where anyone is welcome to view and give their own interpretation of the facts. sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

@mattkalish @CirclesOffHQ I’m a guest on a podcast show. I’m not an employee of circles off

@BAanalytics_ @CirclesOffHQ At least you know who I am. You don’t bother to mention being a paid shill for Kalshi on their marketing payroll at all so you?

Come hang today at 1pm Pacific / 4pm Eastern for a live @CirclesOffHQ episode. I’m making my triumphant return to X after getting hacked. Took some connects to get it back. But I'm BACK DM for pph Partnerships.

@MickBransfield 995…. U bastard lol

Great article analyzing Kalshi combo/parlay data, and showing what happens to a market maker with a bug in their code: news.delphimarkets.com/p/how-to-lose-…

@Dijanicole @FDSportsbook Vegas Dave would be proud of you FanDuel!

@FDSportsbook I’ll pay that 3% all day. The first book with full game protection and the best odds. Yall finally listening to us!

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@trajansports Totally agree sharp betting pros shouldn’t enter the pph space currently. But for anyone with pph shoot me a dm

⚠️ABOUT COUNTERPARTY RISK ON SPORTS BETTING ⚠️ In finance, traders adjust value of OTC derivatives for counterparty risk (XVA). #GamblingX should do the same, especially when betting on PPH accounts. A -105 at Circa is not the same as a -105 at a random PPH account. Why? Because the price is only part of the trade. The other part is whether you actually get paid. Quick example: At -105, you risk 105 to win 100. Let’s say your true win probability is 52.5%. Your EV with full payout is: 0.525 x 100 - 0.475 x 105 = +2.63 So on paper, that bet is worth +2.63 for every 105 risked, about a 2.5% edge. Now assume Circa has effectively 0% default risk. That +2.63 is basically your real EV. Now take the exact same -105 at a PPH account and assume there is a 5% chance that if you win, you do not get paid in full. Your win payoff is no longer 100. It is 95 on an expected basis (0.95×100 + 0.05×0). New EV: 0.525 x 95 - 0.475 x 105 = 0.00 Same game and same line. Completely different bet. And that is before you even account for slower payouts, withdrawal friction, arbitrary limits, balance seizures, rollover traps or the classic “are you using bots?” when you beat them for real money. Make the default risk 10%, and the EV gets worse: 0.525 x 90 - 0.475 x 105 = -2.63 So a bet that looked like a solid +2.5% edge at a trusted book becomes a negative EV bet at a sketchy counterparty. That is my point: We have to bake in the price the probability of default of our counterparty. If you are betting on a crappy book, your quoted edge should be haircut accordingly. Beating the number is nice. Getting paid is nicer. 👉Would love to hear your thoughts in comments

Last month, we received a family gift of $260,000. We debated a lot and ultimately decided for a few reasons to drop it all on our 3.75% mortgage. Our mortgage went from $750k --> $490k We recognize we could have made much more investing, but it felt secure to take a little risk off the table. Mortgage calculator shows this will save us $285k in interest. We then recasted our mortgage and our payment dropped from ~$3,800 to ~$2,400. A little bit closer to freedom.

@aakashgupta Ai slop

A 13-year-old Canadian kid uploaded R&B covers to YouTube in 2008 from his bedroom. A talent manager named Scooter Braun stumbled on the videos and signed him. For the next 15 years, Braun controlled everything. Tours, branding, business deals, public image. The kid became the biggest pop star on the planet, sold 150 million records, racked up 32 billion Spotify streams, and had three Diamond-certified singles before turning 25. Then in 2022, he got hit with Ramsay Hunt syndrome. Partial facial paralysis. Cancelled the world tour. Disappeared from public life entirely. Here's where it gets interesting. In January 2023, he sold his entire 290-song catalog to Hipgnosis for $200 million. Every song he'd ever released. "Baby." "Sorry." "Love Yourself." All of it. Gone. At 28 years old, he cashed out his past. Then he dropped Scooter Braun. After 15 years. No manager. No agent. For the first time in his career, nobody was making decisions for him. Fast forward to this weekend. Coachella calls. He picks up the phone himself. Rolling Stone confirmed he negotiated his own headlining deal directly with Goldenvoice. No agent commission. No manager cut. $10 million for two weekends, and he kept all of it. Then he walked onto the biggest stage in music, sat down behind a MacBook, and pulled up YouTube. He played "Baby" from 2010. He played his bedroom covers from 2008. He harmonized with his 13-year-old self in front of 100,000 people. Katy Perry joked about whether he had YouTube Premium. Half the internet called it lazy. The other half called it genius. They're both wrong. It was a receipt. He sold his catalog for $200 million. He fired the man who discovered him. He negotiated his own deal. And then he went back to the exact platform where it all started and said: I built this from a laptop. I'm headlining Coachella from a laptop. And for the first time in my life, every dollar is mine. The kid from YouTube just closed the loop.

@TheArbFather Prop builder life #screenshots

Well now might be a good time to talk results 🤑 First Full Year of attempting to originate NBA props.. +130U this NBA season 🏀 Bets were made almost exclusively into FanDuel / Prop Builder 📈 Ended up around $80,000 profit with an average bet size of roughly $600. And honestly… I’m less focused on the dollar amount from this angle than I am on how well the process played out. Although it’s a GRIND..That’s what I’m most proud of. Next season the goal is: take that average bet size from $600ish → $1,000+ and keep scaling 💰 and to get down on positions much earlier in the day / morning. Sooooo If anyone has access to strong prop builder outs and wants to help scale next NBA season… reach out. 👀

@TheArbFather @leviathanlocks So you’ve run amazing on sample size 8, I stand by my comment if you don’t know to not deposit on a pph account you are a rookie advising a legion of cult like oddsjammers.

@BAanalytics_ @leviathanlocks I’ve used like 8 other similar books and have had good experiences that I’ve made like 30-40k profit on.. one burnt me.. 🤷‍♂️ wowww

🚨SCAMMER @leviathanlocks🚨 (Please RT to help others not get scammed) DO NOT USE @leviathanlocks I signed up back in January and deposited $1,500. Within 7–10 days, they took away my Prop Builder… which was literally the #1 reason I signed up in the first place. Anyone in the @OddsJam / @PTO community the last couple years knows live Prop Builder is one of the biggest edges out there ROI % wise. But accounts take it away extremely fast now and the limits are shit but if you want an easy edge to grind.. there you go! I also use PB for originated prop betting too. These services i mentioned are “betting tools” to help you make informed bets by showing price discrepancies in the market, not bots that actually place bets for you. I ran the balance up to about $3,600 in roughly 2 weeks… then PB gets shut off. After that, I barely even used the account. Maybe 2–3 prop bets a week on the main book, just to fill in spots I couldn’t get down elsewhere. A little over 2 weeks ago, I decided the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze anymore. No PB = not much value for me there. So I decided to cash out. March 31st: I text their customer service number to withdraw. No response. I DM @leviathanlocks on X. He tells me I must’ve gotten skipped. Then on April 5th, the “CS guy” finally texts me back and asks for a Venmo. I send it. April 6th: he texts me asking “ u used a bot on us?” Short answer: No. He tells me I’ll get paid… but I’ll be slow paid. I wait a few days. April 10th: I text again asking when I’ll be paid. He replies: “Monday.” Insinuating (April 13th) Monday comes… No payment. I text the “CS” guy again. No response. I message @leviathanlocks again… and now he keeps accusing me of using a bot over and over. Still says I’ll be slow paid. At that point I said: At minimum, send me my $1,500 deposit back TODAY and I’ll wait on the profit. Otherwise I’m taking it public so other people don’t get burned too. His response? “Make your post.” So here we are. At the end of the day, I’m not even looking to accomplish much here. They stole $2,700 from me. Peanuts in the grand scheme but it’s the principle. And I don’t want to see others keep a significant size of their bankroll in a book like this and get scammed. And the funniest part? I used my actual @TheArbFather account. Believe it or not, I’ve had books straight up tell me “no thanks”. Others take the action, limit/cut me off, and still pay me like they’re supposed to. I’d rather go through the front door honestly than play the burner account game and duck/dodge like that if I don’t have too on bookies. End of the day on everything I love I didn’t use a bot, I went through the front door on my actual twitter account, I made a little $$ and this scam ass site is saying whatever to get out of paying. Straight up theft, stay clear of these 🤡 @leviathanlocks

@gettothewindow No everyone should quit

Can anyone win without playing openers or buckeye off lines ?

There’s no such thin* as missing by 1/10 of an inch or 1/10th of a centimeter there is just is the pitch a ball or a strike the amount missed by is meaningless, it’s very simple there is a rule for balls and a rule for strikes if you don’t like that then add if it’s by 1/10th of an inch then in a challenge that’s not enough to change it (see how stupid that logic is).

I imagined ABS fixing the ridiculous misses. The fact we are judging umpires on a 100 mph pitch with filthy movement, and judging them on missing it by 1/10th inch means we have lost the plot.

@roundrobin42 @KevinM_Ryan @mckaycoppins This type of article does incredible damage to journalism because now I need to doubt other articles written by “journalists” at the Atlantic

@KevinM_Ryan @mckaycoppins No, he is a staff writer for the Atlantic, and that *gives* him credibility. That is part of why so many are frustrated: he has a valuable platform and many people look up to and follow him (for good reason!) but here, in my opinion, he is being quite close-minded

Annoyed to still be on this, but: there's a fundamental, maybe unresolvable disagreement between people who think gambling can be rational entertainment––even if it means losing money––and those who see losers as necessarily suckers

@CBSMornings @TheAtlantic @mckaycoppins So you stopped betting once it wasn’t your money?

“It only took a few weeks before I was hiding in the kitchen pantry to put my bets in, so my kids didn’t see how much I was gambling”: @TheAtlantic gave @mckaycoppins $10,000 as part of his investigation into online sports gambling — and he came out with far less money and some insight into how gamblers get hooked on apps like FanDuel and DraftKings.

Last week of NBA regular season. Most interesting week of NBA props.

@BadSportsRefs Literally impossible to argue it definitely says it’s in the strike zone that’s the beauty of tech nothing to argue nothing to debate it just is

You make the call: should pitches that are 99.9%+ out of the zone like this be a strike?

@EV_Mobley Bad sign meaning that you been betting so long and didnt realize pre covid what the real betting landscape looked like and I started just 2016

@BAanalytics_ Wouldn’t say it’s a bad sign. I have no desire to bet on anything but my own accounts.

I want to say it’s shocking but I guess I shouldn’t be surprised how many DMs I get where people ask where to see the picks, which telegram chat or discord to get the picks from, and how few understand that people who win want more places to be able to bet and how unbelievably hard it is to explain that message to them.