Ben Anderstone

@infraa_ @ProducerCities Closure of the California Correctional Center at Susanville in 2023

@ProducerCities I can explain LA and the Bay Area, but wtf is going on in Lassen county? That area is beautiful

Where Americans Choose to Move & Where They Leave: "I was surprised by the extent to which certain ecological regions correspond to the patterns on this map" bluebookmke.substack.com/p/where-americ…

@mrandystevens @loganb Weirdly, that's because Clinton Bliss got 25% there

@loganb The ID voted against Harrell

Downtown going for Harrell and Belltown being slightly Harrell, if not split, is an interesting development. Possibly due to lived experience with crime and disorder?

@davidshor @SidKhurana3607 Can't even imagine the swing in a modeled electorate with 100% recent immigrant history. It hurts too much

@SidKhurana3607 Gotta post it with swing numbers by its side

Top counties by foreign-born %, and their top source of immigrants: Miami-Dade, FL (54%, Cuba) Queens, NY (48%, China) Aleutians West, AK (44%, Philippines) Hudson, NJ (43%, India) Santa Clara, CA (41%, India) Kenedy, TX (41%, Mexico)

@gmiller @GarethCanada @NickTerhaar1989 @eyeslasho @CounterTyrannyX That's not the analogy. The analogy is that they demand something from the bank through some level of coercion or implied violence, not merely protest. You're telling us that charging them with attempted robbery would be "retarded"?

@BAnderstone @GarethCanada @NickTerhaar1989 @eyeslasho @CounterTyrannyX If people are found protesting inside a bank, and they all deliberately left their guns at home, then it would be silly to claim that their conspiratorial intent was to rob the bank.

The argument that January 6 was an attempted coup is as follows: The assembled crowd (or "mob" if you prefer) that had listened to Trump lie about a "stolen election" and declare that it was Mike Pence's duty to refuse to certify Biden's victory immediately moved on to the Capitol building — in its initial entry violently forcing its way into the building, injuring dozens of police officers —to attempt to stop or disrupt a joint session of Congress from formalizing Biden's victory, which, had they ultimately been successful, would have forced the country into a constitutional crisis in which Trump might have been able to maintain power. Whether or not this sequence of events was part of a deliberate plan by Trump to stop a legitimate transfer of power (in which case it would have indeed been an attempted coup) or just a case of things getting out of control with an emotional crowd — a sequence of events that Trump had neither planned nor wanted —is a matter of debate. But to "literally not understand how people could entertain that it was an attempted coup" is an indicator of hyperpartisan cognitive impairment.

@GarethCanada @NickTerhaar1989 @eyeslasho @gmiller @CounterTyrannyX I'd prefer "riot" too, but these reasons it "can't" be an attempted coup don't make sense. Obviously, many participants had that intent, even if they were childish idiots. Imagine if someone used this logic ("they left their guns at home") about a bank robbery! Silly, right?

@NickTerhaar1989 @eyeslasho @gmiller @CounterTyrannyX @BAnderstone Riot is definitely more accurate than coup or insurrection.

@gmiller @eyeslasho Are you saying that the word "attempt" means something else besides "try to achieve an outcome"? It doesn't. Or are you saying you categorically oppose prosecuting adults who commit childishly unrealistic criminal attempts? ("Your honor, I was only LARPing!")

@BAnderstone @eyeslasho If a couple of angry toddlers hit John Wick with peacock feathers, are they doing attempted murder on John Wick? No. They're just angry toddlers waving peacock feathers around.

@gmiller @eyeslasho That doesn't really scan logically. You can't "attempt" to do something if you lack the realistic capacity to successfully complete it? Gonna be news to prosecutors.

@eyeslasho It's still a retarded view. How exactly would a temporary disruption of one particular vote to certify an election lead to... a constitutional crisis? Or Trump staying in power? There is no plausible path from one medium-sized protest to the US government falling.

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones Construct validity tells us that a test truly measures what it’s supposed to. Without it, we'd mistake any correlation as a meaningful factor, when it could just be a random coincidence or reflect unrelated traits. Thanks for being so intellectually honest & chill about this btw!

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones Big question, but statistical tests inc: convergent (correlation w/ related measures), discriminant (low correlation w/ unrelated traits), predictive (predicting outcomes), and factor analysis (structure fit). Plus, test-retest reliability, i.e.: do same people get same results?.

It's partly a Raven's style IQ test and a personality test. This is unironic good news.

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones 0.72 is definitely high for psych research, but it means Intuition only accounts for like 51% of Openness variation. That's miles away from the claim that they're comparably valid, let alone virtually identical.

@BAnderstone @batterystaple42 @GarettJones 0,72 seems a strong correlation

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones Interesting thought! But, factor analysis just clusters items; it doesn’t prove constructs are valid. MBTI overlaps with Big Five traits, and Cronbach’s alpha shows consistency, not meaning. At the end of the day, MBTI just doesn’t pass scientific rigor like the Big 5 does.

@BAnderstone @batterystaple42 @GarettJones Well, I am not an expert in statistic analyses, but I think that a construct could be considered to be valid if it emerge "naturally" in some kind of factor analyses, of it it had a good Cronbach alpha, or something similar; the MBTI seems, at least, to pass the f. a. test

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones FYI: As far as I know, Intuition and Openness aren't "strongly" correlated. Slightly to moderately, at most. If you have a source for the claim that MBTI has similar construct validity to the Big 5, I'm open! But, I'm pretty confident that's NOT the scientific consensus on this.

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones Bad phrasing, maybe, but my point is that the Sensing/Intuition scale can't be used *consistently* to show things because it has poor construct validity. Are you claiming research doesn't indicate poor construct validity, even when used dimensionally?

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones It's a valid criticism - rounding 51% to 100% doesn't help. But the bigger problem with the MBTI is that research suggests a lot of the things it's "testing" (like "sensing versus intuition") fail to consistently test/detect anything meaningful.

@BAnderstone @batterystaple42 @GarettJones At least, most the articles saying "MBTI is wrong" have the categorical thing as the main line of attack; this makes me think that it is its weaker spot.

@MiguelMadeira11 @batterystaple42 @GarettJones That's not really accurate. Several of the MBTI dimensions don't really hold up to to re-testing or inter-rater reliability. The Big 5 ones do. A dimensional MBTI would not fix that fundamental problem.

@batterystaple42 @GarettJones Myer-Briggs and Big Five are almost identical (the only difference is the "Neuroticism"); the people who say that Big 5 is better than MBTI usually resort to a largely irrelevant difference: that MBTI is categorical while Big 5 is dimensional, but you can have a dimensional MBTI

WA Presidential results by city/town are also telling. D list has fewer working-class suburbs & Hispanic towns. Bainbridge Island, Mercer Island, and resort towns like White Salmon & Winthrop now top list. (Despite R swing in Native vote, Nespelem was #1 @ 46-2 Harris.) [2/2]

With King County results finalized, a few pearls. First, in Seattle, Broadmoor edged out the C/ID for the Trumpiest neighborhood. Still, the rest of the list shows class realignment. Much of South Seattle is now more R than Laurelhurst or Madison Park. 1/2 #waelex

@lymanstoneky The scripts run on the website's back-end, not for download. Accessing table format might require a membership ($35?), but it's the only website I'm aware of with highly-updated, centralized, national county-level data in table format.

@BAnderstone where's the scripts?

Where would a person find COUNTY LEVEL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR 2024? I've seen people post maps of election margin swing-- where's the data coming from? I want to join the mapmaking party!

@TvSwisher @SwipeWright I'm curious, since you're prodding this way: Do you have a response to folks who are posting criticisms of your studies? Several people have pointed out specific confounders (the trans fat issue), and @SwipeWright alluded to them, but I haven't seen you reply.

@SwipeWright x.com/tvswisher/stat…

Wow, the responses to this post have been very eye-opening. Not to the harms of seed oils, mind you, but to the crazy level of panic over nothing.