Ben Deveran

$SATS In my opinion, it's obvious EchoStar is positioning the company around IRC 1033 — between the formation of EchoStar Capital and the Crown Castle force majeure dispute. IF THEY QUALIFY, here's how I look at the opportunity: Some of the most popular stocks in the space basket in public markets are small/mid cap: - BlackSky $BKSY: $794M - Intuitive Machines $LUNR: $3.35B - Redwire $RDW: $1.89B That's ~$6B for some of the most popular "space basket" names. If EchoStar pulls off IRC 1033 treatment, they could defer ~$8B in taxes — enough to buy controlling stakes in every one of these stocks and still have cash left over. Not saying they will, but it puts the offensive position into perspective. For those unfamiliar with IRC 1033: It's an involuntary conversion provision. When the government forces you to sell an asset, you can defer capital gains by reinvesting into "similar or related" property within 2-3 years. EchoStar told the FCC they "did not plan to sell" their spectrum but did so due to "severe uncertainty" from the Commission's investigation — exactly the language needed for 1033 treatment. "We are going to be an asset-light, growth company. That's the forced pivot that we had to make by disposing of our spectrum. We had not planned on selling at this time." — Hamid Akhavan The numbers: - $23B from AT&T (cash) - $17B from SpaceX ($8.5B cash + $8.5B in SpaceX equity) - $2.6B for AWS-3 spectrum (paid in SpaceX stock) - SpaceX covering ~$2B in debt interest through Nov 2027 Total: ~$45B in proceeds + $2B debt service + $11B SpaceX equity position ($22B+ at $800B private mark) EchoStar now holds a 2.815% stake in SpaceX — and any merger with xAI or Tesla would be highly accretive from an IPO/re-rating perspective. "Of all the things I see in the world today, if I could make one investment other than ourselves, it would be SpaceX." — Charlie Ergen Why I don't think they target public space stocks: The market is exhausted trading the same PE-rolled-up names on every headline. There is SIGNIFICANT DEMAND for new space equity exposure in public markets. Due to this, I think it's obvious the real target value is in private markets — new space companies that haven't received public attention yet. If EchoStar qualifies for 1033, I expect them to deploy into private space companies, completely changing the narrative. Under 1033, they can acquire controlling stakes (80%+) in qualifying corporations No dollar-for-dollar reinvestment like 1031 — they can lever up SpaceX equity gives them a strategic wedge into that ecosystem Could new public proxies emerge through EchoStar's PE investments? I think so. Public company takeovers? Also possible. "Potential areas for M&A include aerospace, space, enterprise services, defense and manufacturing — all areas where we have green shoots." — Hamid Akhavan EchoStar Capital: Going on Offense "EchoStar will soon be in the unique position of having substantial available capital, vastly changing its scope of opportunities. This is an opportune moment to go on the offense." — Hamid Akhavan, CEO of EchoStar Capital "We consider SpaceX our first investment in EchoStar Capital." "We certainly don't intend to be purely passive investors. Even when we make a passive investment, it will be strategic." EchoStar Capital's focus areas: Space communications, mobile, telecom, defense, strategic manufacturing, enterprise services. (Notably similar language to IRC 1033 qualifying asset categories.) Disclosure & Disclaimer: The author holds a long position in EchoStar Corporation (NASDAQ: $SATS) and may buy or sell shares at any time without notice. This post is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of any firm or institution. All forward-looking statements, projections, and valuations are speculative and based on publicly available information, which may be incomplete or inaccurate. Investing involves substantial risk, including the potential loss of principal. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

LeComplain

LUKA IS HOOPING 🔥🔥🔥

@flightradar24 Newark is such a congested and shit airport

The NTSB is investigating a “close call” between an Alaska Airlines 737 and FedEx 777 in Newark. The flights were on approach to intersecting runways when ATC instructed Alaska to go around. The 737 climbed, passing over the FedEx aircraft on the runway. flightradar24.com/blog/aviation-…

@visegrad24 Wait until they find out about Maine, and or 1 of 11 air craft carriers & or unprecedented speed to full air superiority and or the army core of engineers to fix those air strips

Denmark was ready to blow up Greenland runways if the USA invaded. The Danish military sent explosives and blood supplies to Greenland in January as part of contingency planning for a US attack, as tensions with Trump escalated. 🇩🇰🇬🇱🇺🇸

Goggins, who retired from active duty in the Navy SEALs in 2016, has reenlisted and is now assigned to the Special Warfare Training Wing. navytimes.com/news/your-mili…

@kingtutcap 👍🏼

$BAER: Texas firefighters asking the state for $350M for the creation of an aerial firefighting fleet. Bridger CEO was in Texas last month and met with state legislators on the same topic. I continue to add.. the dots will eventually connect.

The investor deck has some economics but it’s based off of 2024 — the economics have changed each year since then so hard to guide. There are price escalators and different IDIQs/rates etc. Most important thing to know is there is flight hour rate for missions and then daily standby rates for pre positioned aircraft

@BDeveran Do you have any knowledge of the pay difference between the different planes?

$BAER MMA putting in that work

@FirewatchDeluz If you view the app and zoom in the fire vector sizes down, it just looks congested when zoomed out. I will work on it eventually, The app has garnered far more attention than I anticipated lol

@BDeveran Cool. I think it gave out a wrong impression to some. Not your intent, pretty cool fleet tracker.

@FirewatchDeluz Also active / inactive — it fetches all fires ytd. Probably will have to clear some eventually — a lot of work.

The app isn't nearly as geo spatial as yours, no plans to build / spend anymore time on it. Bridger app is just about tracking the fleet movements with ADS-B and knowing what fires they're near. - The size of the flame ui/vector is not measured by anything. I could make it look a lot better, but its just for funzy

@mc_khristina It is fun to watch 😂

$BAER currently has three aircraft in-flight. I am a little bit obsessed with this site bridgerfleet.com

@Weedwonder1 None currently correct, two on standby — they do get a daily rate for being pre positioned.

@BDeveran No scoopers are active yet though per my reading?

Yesterday, we mapped our largest fire. Nebraska has seen significant wildfire activity this week, with the first accurate fire perimeters mapped by our Multi-Mission Aircraft. Capturing both the Morrill and Cottonwood fires, our MMA mapped more than 743,060 acres burned, providing critical intelligence to support response efforts on the ground. The Morrill Fire now stands as the largest incident our MMA team has supported, providing critical intelligence to crews working across the state. #MorrillFire #CottonwoodFire #NebraskaFires

Ongoing Nebraska wildfires have now burned more than 800,000 acres in the state as firefighters make progress containing the four fires. nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news-a…

Nebraska's four major blazes, which are blamed for at least one death and have burned nearly 800,000 acres, are described by Gov. Jim Pillen as "the largest wildfires in our history." nbcnews.com/weather/wildfi…

The fire activity is just insane over the past week, wow and it is only March 18th

New Start, Colorado: 2 new wildfires in Colorado burning south of Colorado Springs. The 24 Fire is burning off the HWY 115 and is small but active. The 115 is closed northbound. The Nineteen Fire is estimated at 1,600 acres. Resources on scene.

@DeItaone 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😂😂😂😂

EUROPE UNVEILS 'EU INC.' PLAN FOR STARTUPS TO RIVAL US, CHINA

In the age of exponential AI/Robotics innovation: I never thought about it, but the most interesting shift in business is competition → collaboration. Humans are tribal. We've always competed for resources. Collaboration was the exception. But now we share a common adversary: AI and robotics are taking our labor, energy, and resources. When the threat is existential and universal, human-to-human and company-to-company collaboration becomes survival instinct. No policy is going to save the labor market from UBI, it's coming. Seeing more people more willing to work together as the reality sets in that the economic world we know is changing at a rate faster than we humans can comprehend.