Post mortem..we did well #0dte #optionstrading @doc_mcgraw @ConvexValue open.substack.com/pub/binkus300/…
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binkus300
3.6K posts
binkus300
@BInkeles
Retired MD,Trading equity and index options, contrarian, investor, aof market breadth . Scalping 0DTE SPX options every day. Educational info, not advice.AT4OE5
Katılım Kasım 2021
398 Takip Edilen941 Takipçiler
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Looking at everything together, here's what I'm seeing as we head into the afternoon...
The big picture is "pinned."
Price is sitting right at 6585, which is basically the dead center of a massive gamma wall between 6540–6600. This is not a coincidence — market makers are long gamma here and they're actively fading moves in both directions. Every time price tries to push up, they sell. Every time it dips, they buy. With VIX at 25.11 (elevated but not panicking), there's enough vol premium to keep them very active in this behavior.
The map (Image 2) tells a clean story:
Below 6585 is red — dealers are supportive. Above 6585 is green — dealers are resistant. Price is literally sitting on the dividing line. That's not a coincidence either — this is classic OPEX pinning behavior and today being March 19th, you're right in the thick of it.
Charm is also pulling toward the pin:
The charm chart shows orange/amber energy clustering below current price and blue above — both of those flows point back toward the gamma peak around 6586–6600. So even the time-decay mechanics are working against a big directional move this afternoon.
So what's the likely path?
Honestly? A whole lot of nothing. Choppy, frustrating, back-and-forth action roughly between 6560 and 6620. The 6590–6600 zone is the gravitational center.
Likely close: 6585–6600. If I had to pick a number, I'd say 6592–6597 range. The pin is just too strong with this GEX structure on expiration day.
The only thing that breaks this is an unexpected macro catalyst — if that happens and we crack below 6540, dealers flip from buyers to sellers and it could get ugly fast toward 6500. But absent that, this market looks like it wants to go absolutely nowhere into the bell.
Theta is doing the work today, not momentum. #SPX #0dte @ConvexValue @doc_mcgraw @OptionsDepth @vighnaraj2022
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The honest take on vol crush today...
Normally after FOMC, it's almost mechanical. Fed speaks, uncertainty goes away, vol collapses, options sellers clean up and everyone goes home happy. Traders literally position for this every single meeting.
But Iran changes the calculus completely.
Think about it from an options seller's perspective. You're sitting there ready to sell premium into the close, harvest that vol crush... and then you remember there's an active geopolitical situation that could drop a headline at literally any moment overnight. Why would you aggressively let that premium bleed out? You wouldn't. And that's the problem.
That basically creates a floor under volatility that wouldn't normally be there. Even if Powell comes out and sounds totally calm and measured, there's still this open-ended risk sitting underneath everything that nobody can fully price or resolve.
Looking at that charm chart in Image 3, you can actually see this — dealers are hedging with a wider margin of safety than you'd typically expect heading into a Fed decision. That's telling you something.
So realistically what happens?
You'll probably get some vol crush if Powell nails the landing — but it's going to be shallower and shorter than usual. The bid in puts isn't going anywhere because people aren't giving up their downside protection with Iran still live. And honestly if Powell says anything that touches on energy prices or geopolitical risk, vol could actually spike into the close rather than compress.
Here's the core tension today...
The market is basically being asked to do two completely contradictory things at once — digest a Fed decision which wants to compress volatility, while simultaneously holding a geopolitical risk premium which wants to elevate it. Those two things are fighting each other all afternoon.
And in that tug of war? Geopolitical risk almost always wins in the short term. Because the Fed decision has a clear endpoint — Powell finishes talking and it's done. Iran has no expiry date.
So the traders positioning for a clean textbook vol crush today are probably going to be at least partially disappointed. The more realistic outcome is a messy, incomplete compression where vol comes in a little but never fully collapses. And keep watching that 6700 level we talked about — if price can't even rally back there on a decent Fed reaction, that's your clearest signal of just how heavy that Iran premium is weighing on everything. #VIX #FOMC #SPX
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@BInkeles Thx for the report, binkus.
the last line there
6535 or it is a typo?
should it be 6635?
pl. clarify.
thx
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So here's where we are right now — SPX is sitting at 6678, down about 38 points on the day, and you've got FOMC dropping this afternoon. The timing actually matters a lot given what the charts are showing.
The big thing jumping out is that 6700 is the level everyone's watching. You can see that massive spike in the GEX chart right there — that's a huge concentration of open interest, and it acts like a magnet. If price gets anywhere near it, dealers are going to be scrambling to hedge and that tends to pull price right toward it.
Here's the tricky part though — right now you're sitting in negative gamma territory. What that means practically is that instead of the market makers acting as a shock absorber (which is what happens in positive gamma), they're actually adding fuel to the fire. Big move up? They have to buy more. Big move down? They have to sell more. So whatever direction FOMC sends this thing, expect it to feel exaggerated.
The GEX map (Image 2) tells a pretty clear story too. Green above, red below. You're right at that boundary. Bulls want to get back above it, bears want to push further into the red where things can get disorderly fast. The real danger zone to the downside is around 6535 — that's where the gamma flip is, and below there it could get ugly quickly.
Then there's the charm dynamic into the close, which is actually underappreciated today. As time bleeds out on all these 0DTE options this afternoon, dealers are going to have to rehedge, and that creates its own directional pressure — especially after 2:30 or 3 PM. So even after the initial FOMC reaction, don't assume it settles down.
Practically speaking, the most likely scenarios are:
Fed comes in as expected or dovish → watch for a fast snap back toward 6700, that magnet does its thing
Fed comes in hawkish or surprising → negative gamma takes over, 6650 breaks, and you could see a quick flush toward 6620 or worse
Choppy and unclear → price probably just grinds in a 6650-6700 range until Powell opens his mouth and clarifies things
The honest read is that this is a don't fight the move kind of afternoon. The structure is set up to amplify whatever happens, not contain it. Just know your levels — 6700 up top, 6650 as near support, and 6535 if things really fall apart.
#SPX #0dte #FOMC @ConvexValue @OptionsDepth @doc_mcgraw
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📋 **EOD Recap — SPX Closed 6,716.19**
**The Scorecard:**
✅ 1:30 PM range 6699–6743 → Held
✅ 3:00 PM range 6707–6735 → Held
❌ 3:40 PM AI pin 6702–6704 → Missed
**What happened:**
Alright let's be real about today — the levels worked. All day. Every range we put out held into the close and 6716 printed right inside both the 1:30 and 3pm ranges without breaking either bound. That's the part that matters.
**The one miss:**
The only thing that was off was the AI's final 20-minute pin call at 3:40 — it got a little too cute calling 6702–6704 as the exact close. The logic was sound (6700 had massive call AND put OI stacked on it), but with only 20 minutes left and price sitting 19 points away, there just wasn't enough time for price to travel that far cleanly. The MOC flows in the final minutes pushed it back up and we closed at 6716 instead. That's on the AI read, not the level work.
**What held all day:**
🎯 6699 — never even seriously threatened. Solid floor all session.
🎯 6707 — tested into 3:50 PM, bounced right back. Held clean.
🎯 6735 / 6743 — upper bounds never came close. Capped every rally attempt.
🔒 6700 call OI wall — acted as the gravitational anchor all day exactly as called.
Levels: 3/3 ✅ · AI final pin: 0/1 ❌ · Overall: good day. See you tomorrow.
26-03-17 · EXPIRY · Close: 6,716.19 #SPX #0dte
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