Doc aka Trader McGraw

@BInkeles @binkus300 Here’s your chance to ask Jensen about his business once and for all

This might actually be Trump's funniest moment 😂 Japanese Reporter: Why didn't you tell us before you struck Iran? Trump: "Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?" 💀🔥😂

Post mortem..we did well #0dte #optionstrading @doc_mcgraw @ConvexValue open.substack.com/pub/binkus300/…

BESSENT: IRAN REGIME WILL PROBABLY COLLAPSE WITHIN ITSELF says the Grown up in the room Is the Fix in? Check your pagers everyone

Thx The 'easy money' (well not exactly, but ...) Down below these Take your pick (I did) Chart = @OptionsDepth Green = MM long GEX 'support' (not exactly but close enuff for a tweet)

Headline: CNBC Gulf states have tolerated Iranian strikes so far — but The Gulf states have said Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure won't "go unanswered" but, so far, they have not hit back. That stance could change soon. Market Reaction IF that Happens

10:45 AM UPDATE SPX 6585 now, sitting in the lower chop box. Updated structure: 6530 = lower frame edge 6560 to 6590 = lower chop box 6590 to 6615 = upper chop box 6630 = upper frame edge $SPX Road Map 0DTE: Lower Chop Box: 6560 to 6590 - If SPX holds 6560, then it can keep rotating inside the lower box. - If SPX reclaims 6590, then it can push into the upper chop box. - If SPX loses 6560, then look for 6545 first. - If SPX loses 6545, then 6530 becomes the lower frame edge. Upper Chop Box: 6590 to 6615 - If SPX gets above 6590, then 6600 to 6615 is the next rotation zone. - If SPX gets above 6615, then 6630 is the upper frame edge. - If SPX fails back under 6590, then it can drop back into the lower chop box. Frame edges: - Above 6615 opens 6630. - Below 6560 opens 6545 then 6530. Read: Right now this is still a box fight, not a trend day. Bulls need 6590 reclaimed to press into the upper box. Bears need 6560 lost to reopen the lower air. Until one side clears a frame edge, expect chop with teeth.

in and out of Demo trades Float like a butterfly (pun intended) - Sting like a bee $55 + $40 per LOT TiT (Time in Trade) < 30 minutes

Educational Trades Modeled and sent to fill at the open from the AM live cast 🎥 Join me live at 8:30 AM ET for SPX prep and market structure breakdown: YouTube: @DocMcGraw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@DocMcGraw X (Twitter): x.com/doc_mcgraw Substack: @tradermcgraw331292" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tradermcgraw3…

Systematic Fund sold 6500 $SPX put credit spreads I joined the party below NOT ADVICE blah blah chart = @OptionsDepth First intraday update

Quantuition with Doc McGraw x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

🎥 Join me live at 8:30 AM ET for SPX prep and market structure breakdown: YouTube: @DocMcGraw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@DocMcGraw X (Twitter): x.com/doc_mcgraw Substack: @tradermcgraw331292" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tradermcgraw3…

We get this question a lot. The daily model for Monday becomes available Friday night. But throughout Friday’s session, you can already see it taking shape as positioning builds into the close. Follow the MM exposure heatmap into the close — that’s where the next session starts forming.

The honest take on vol crush today... Normally after FOMC, it's almost mechanical. Fed speaks, uncertainty goes away, vol collapses, options sellers clean up and everyone goes home happy. Traders literally position for this every single meeting. But Iran changes the calculus completely. Think about it from an options seller's perspective. You're sitting there ready to sell premium into the close, harvest that vol crush... and then you remember there's an active geopolitical situation that could drop a headline at literally any moment overnight. Why would you aggressively let that premium bleed out? You wouldn't. And that's the problem. That basically creates a floor under volatility that wouldn't normally be there. Even if Powell comes out and sounds totally calm and measured, there's still this open-ended risk sitting underneath everything that nobody can fully price or resolve. Looking at that charm chart in Image 3, you can actually see this — dealers are hedging with a wider margin of safety than you'd typically expect heading into a Fed decision. That's telling you something. So realistically what happens? You'll probably get some vol crush if Powell nails the landing — but it's going to be shallower and shorter than usual. The bid in puts isn't going anywhere because people aren't giving up their downside protection with Iran still live. And honestly if Powell says anything that touches on energy prices or geopolitical risk, vol could actually spike into the close rather than compress. Here's the core tension today... The market is basically being asked to do two completely contradictory things at once — digest a Fed decision which wants to compress volatility, while simultaneously holding a geopolitical risk premium which wants to elevate it. Those two things are fighting each other all afternoon. And in that tug of war? Geopolitical risk almost always wins in the short term. Because the Fed decision has a clear endpoint — Powell finishes talking and it's done. Iran has no expiry date. So the traders positioning for a clean textbook vol crush today are probably going to be at least partially disappointed. The more realistic outcome is a messy, incomplete compression where vol comes in a little but never fully collapses. And keep watching that 6700 level we talked about — if price can't even rally back there on a decent Fed reaction, that's your clearest signal of just how heavy that Iran premium is weighing on everything. #VIX #FOMC #SPX

The classic VIX9D minus VIX is still positive...so no all clear signal yet #VIX #0dte #SPX

What's this Doc? Most of the 6700 customer long put holders have left the building. As you can see there were 2.3k mm short puts customer long at the begign of the day VS - 375 ish near 1:00 Translation: A potential path upwards to and thru 6700 has opened Conditional of course, but ... chart = @OptionsDepth

So here's where we are right now — SPX is sitting at 6678, down about 38 points on the day, and you've got FOMC dropping this afternoon. The timing actually matters a lot given what the charts are showing. The big thing jumping out is that 6700 is the level everyone's watching. You can see that massive spike in the GEX chart right there — that's a huge concentration of open interest, and it acts like a magnet. If price gets anywhere near it, dealers are going to be scrambling to hedge and that tends to pull price right toward it. Here's the tricky part though — right now you're sitting in negative gamma territory. What that means practically is that instead of the market makers acting as a shock absorber (which is what happens in positive gamma), they're actually adding fuel to the fire. Big move up? They have to buy more. Big move down? They have to sell more. So whatever direction FOMC sends this thing, expect it to feel exaggerated. The GEX map (Image 2) tells a pretty clear story too. Green above, red below. You're right at that boundary. Bulls want to get back above it, bears want to push further into the red where things can get disorderly fast. The real danger zone to the downside is around 6535 — that's where the gamma flip is, and below there it could get ugly quickly. Then there's the charm dynamic into the close, which is actually underappreciated today. As time bleeds out on all these 0DTE options this afternoon, dealers are going to have to rehedge, and that creates its own directional pressure — especially after 2:30 or 3 PM. So even after the initial FOMC reaction, don't assume it settles down. Practically speaking, the most likely scenarios are: Fed comes in as expected or dovish → watch for a fast snap back toward 6700, that magnet does its thing Fed comes in hawkish or surprising → negative gamma takes over, 6650 breaks, and you could see a quick flush toward 6620 or worse Choppy and unclear → price probably just grinds in a 6650-6700 range until Powell opens his mouth and clarifies things The honest read is that this is a don't fight the move kind of afternoon. The structure is set up to amplify whatever happens, not contain it. Just know your levels — 6700 up top, 6650 as near support, and 6535 if things really fall apart. #SPX #0dte #FOMC @ConvexValue @OptionsDepth @doc_mcgraw

🚨 Your 10-Second $SPX Market Recap 🚨 Powered by OptionsDepth

$SPX structure: 🔴Put dominated to start the day indicating accenuated price movement in both directions. 📣GEX/DEX transition is EXTREMELY WIDE, this is indicating as you would expect more uncertainty in market participants positioning. What does this mean for you as a trader: This should be your warning for smaller position sizes, reduced time frames and possibly not trading at all until a better risk vs reward structure appears. The best decision sometimes is no decision at all in trading and protecting your capital. Key Levels: 6750 upper strike that has significant OTM calls and charm headwind for the day. 6730 top of DEX transition and logical stalling point for any move up. 6700 round psychological level and OTM put dominated if we are above with supportive charm. 6685 short put strike and just above the bottom of the DEX transition at 6680 where we could see price interact. 6660 strike below DS (drunken sailor/orange box) and should be first strike on signficant weakness where the market could stabilize.