Beyond reasonable doubt

BREAKING Trump tells AFP he believes China got Iran to negotiate

“The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region…” Seems like Iran’s understanding of their own terms in their 10 point plan is the eviction of the US military from the Arabian Peninsula. We’ll see if that’s what they end up realizing.

Now more than ever, our relationships with our neighbours matter. Tonight I spoke with Premier Li Qiang of the People's Republic of China. We talked about the importance of energy security, and how we can work together for the benefit of our nations and our region. We will continue to engage in dialogue to maintain our stable and constructive relationship.

Sharif's tweet did three things simultaneously and this is why it's absolute genius. It handed Trump a domestic off-ramp at the precise moment he needed one. Opposition to the infrastructure strike threat had reached into the furthest corners of his own coalition. A respected Muslim-world leader publicly asking for two weeks reframes any extension as statesmanship rather than capitulation. Trump can say yes without saying he blinked. It put Iran in an impossible public position. The Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway. It is not Iranian sovereign territory under any settled reading of international law. Sharif asked Tehran to open it for fourteen days as a goodwill gesture, not a concession. If Iran refuses a two-week pause proposed by the one country that has defended its right to resist throughout this war, it no longer controls the narrative. The aggressor framing, which Iran has successfully maintained for six weeks, starts to shift. And it gave Pakistan documented justification for what comes next if Iran continues striking Saudi Arabia. Islamabad publicly asked for restraint. It asked Iran specifically. If Tehran ignores that ask and hits Saudi infrastructure again, Pakistan's path to activating the defence pact becomes not just legally defensible but morally unambiguous. One tweet. Three moves. All of them precise.

Chinese looking at the entire mess from a (reasonably) comfortable distance.

The big counterpoint to this: PRC analysts have noted in various fora that we're more aggressive/successful at leadership decapitation strikes than they'd expected. "You win Taiwan, but the top 3 layers of your leadership all die" isn't that attractive a trade for Xi I'm guessing

Construction of Medieval Castles still blows my mind. For example, here’s Bamburgh Castle in England from the 11th century!

A human chain has been formed on the White Bridge in Ahvaz, Iran.

晚六时许，郑丽文在南京东郊宾馆欢迎晚宴上发表致辞。她提出此次的出访具有四项重大的历史意义。其致辞全文如下： 宋涛主任，及中央台办的好朋友们，我们访问团的成员，大家晚安，大家好！ 首先，丽文要非常感谢宋涛主任对本次行程细心，周翔的安排以及对本党访问团热情的接待，在此也对宋主任表达诚挚的问候跟衷心的感谢。  在座中共中央台办的朋友们，访问团的成员们，很高兴在这个历史性的时刻和大家在此欢聚一堂。丽文认为，此次的出访具有四项重大的历史意义： 第一、在亚太的局势上，我们正在创造一个新的典范，让全世界知道政治分歧并不必然导致冲突。两岸不会向国际社会所担心的终将有一战。  我们将共同证明两岸有能力、有决心、有智慧来和平的解决所有的问题，为区域的安全跟稳定做出我们的贡献。我们不止不会当麻烦制造者，同时会是区域和平的缔造者。在这个当前动荡的世界局势当中的此次和平之旅的意义更显重大。  第二，在两岸关系上再次的证明，九二共识，反对台独，这个政治基础仍旧历久弥新，是当前两岸关系的定海神针。过去三十多年来，台湾社会历经数次的政党轮替，但是历史经验充分显示，只要坚持九二共识，反对台独，那么两岸就可以交流对话。反之，台海就会陷入动荡不安。因此，此次我们的来访，将让两岸关系的天平进一步的朝和平稳定的方向去。 第三，在国共关系上，实隔十年，再度由现任国民党党主席率团访问大陆，中国国民党再度发挥维护台海和平稳定的关键作用。本党主张的两岸和平路线是一条正确有效、对全体台湾人民都最有利的道路。  21年前，丽文追随连战主席和平之旅访问大陆，当时达成了国共两党的五项愿景，是在那一次历史性的访问当中，开创了往后国民党执政八年期间两岸关系和平发展的黄金年代。  此次我们的来访，对于台湾爱好两岸和平、希望两岸交流的主流民意而言，具有再度开创新局的重大意义。 最后，在台湾的历史上，此次访问，我们也彰显台湾人是可以摆脱悲情，掌握自己命运的强大自主性。台湾不应该沦为地缘政治的棋子，甚至是弃子。中国国民党在战争与和平、毁灭与繁荣之间，提供给台湾人民选择、和平跟繁荣的宝贵机会。  纵使中国国民党目前在台湾是在野党，但是我们不能够推卸，也不能够闪躲我们自己对台湾如何走向和平繁荣的重大责任。 最后怀着深深的感谢之情，谢谢大家共同参与历史性的和平之旅，也仅以这一杯酒，预祝接下来几天的行程圆满成功，合乎两岸人民共同的利益，以及国际是社会共同的期待。 跟各位一起举杯！

JUST IN - Iran closes all diplomatic and indirect channels of communication with the U.S., suspending the exchange of messages, following Trump’s threat to kill Iran's "whole civilization." — Reuters

A senior U.S. official says direct contacts with Iran are ongoing and “positive,” with a possible breakthrough soon, but major gaps still remain. Source: Fox News

I hope it's all bluff and bluster and in the end everyone comes back from the brink, just in time..

5/ China's leaders care foremost about their own standing at home. Xi made a big bet that China needed to invest in self-reliance. He made it his signature issue. With the 21st Party Congress on the horizon in 2027, I expect we will hear more about Xi's wisdom for doing so. END.