Carl Worker

In today’s NZ Herald

Utterly shocking but not a surprise. Impunity breeds hubris. All states and people who care for Freedom must rise up in defense of the ICC and int'l justice now, before it's too late. It's rule of law or barbarism.

Well done, Spain! 🇪🇸 Well deserved!

Silly New Zealand. Too big for our boots.

“(The) coalition that the United States helped forge for the joint statement was mainly composed of European and Western countries. South Korea, a core U.S. ally in Asia, stayed away. Most notably, Southeast Asian states (apart from the Philippines) did not sign up – not even Vietnam, which has its own sharp maritime dispute with China, and should be a logical partner. Hanoi chose to reiterate its support for the award in a separate statement… Almost all Southeast Asian states reject China’s expansive 9-dash line and are opposed to or uneasy with Beijing’s intrusive and aggressive actions. However, they also have important economic and other ties with China that they do not want to risk.”

Multiple serious incidents in Hormuz over the past few days illustrate that Iran can execute attacks on international shipping, even under active U.S. Navy protection. Trump's gamble is that the U.S. can keep getting oil out -- that it can secure traffic, not 100%, but enough that shippers will risk the transit and break Iran's hold over the waterway. Iran is betting that continued attacks will scare shippers off. Now we're running the experiment. The coming week will tell who's right -- and determine each side's leverage in the next round of diplomacy. If crossings halt (again), Iran's leverage increases. If crossings continue, Trump's leverage increases. So far, shippers seem leery. Industry risk tolerance for running the strait has been quite low throughout the conflict, especially compared to prior conflicts (e.g. the Iran-Iraq War).

NEW: The US and 13 other countries released a statement condemning Chinese actions in the South China Sea. Why did only one Southeast Asian nation join in? More from @globalsarang: responsiblestatecraft.org/china-on-south…

“The ICC is not claiming jurisdiction over conduct in the US,” @KenRoth told the Guardian. “Rubio is dressing up his quest for impunity for American war crimes under the label of national sovereignty.” Legal experts respond to Rubio’s attack on the #ICC theguardian.com/us-news/2026/j…

1. I know everyone is numb to what Trump says, but here he is admitting that the process to approve the Paramount/WBD merger is part of a corrupt plan to make CNN more MAGA-friendly, None of this new, but it's time Democrats wake

What have I missed/got wrong?: - President Trump doesn't have a strategy to end this war: strategically, he is flailing. - These current hostilities resumed over differing intentions regarding the SoH. - For the time being the USG will continue to use military force to degrade Iran's ability to threaten SoH traffic, while also maintaining the naval blockade, i.e. the same strategy it was using to no avail before the ceasefire and MoU. It will continue to outsource its desultory diplomatic efforts to Pakistani, Qatar and others. - When the U.S. realizes degrading Iran’s ability to threaten SoH traffic isn’t moving the needle, it might well escalate, prompting Iranian retaliative escalation. - The US cannot prevent Iran from threatening (i.e. functionally closing if not significantly constricting) the SoH without a massive increase in military assets, which it will not risk for domestic political reasons. - For Iran control of the SoH for them has become its major redline issue. There is a chance of successful negotiations on the SoH issue if the US shows some flexibility (i.e. cedes to Iran). Short-term Iranian 'management' of the SoH could be unavoidable at least in the short-term. If SoH is dealt with, there is a very low chance of successful negotiations on the nuclear issue - if the US administration is lucky enough to get traffic flowing again at decent levels in the SoH, it will cut its losses, declare victory, and focus elsewhere. It is bootless to refer to ‘international law’ when discussing this issue. Iran violated international law by attacking the GCC countries. The U.S. attacked Venezuela & Iran contrary to international law, President Trump was willing to impose a 20 percent fee on SoH maritime traffic contrary to international law, and Secretary Rubio has declared war on the International Criminal Court because he feels it limits unbridled U.S. sovereignty.

Wall Street in 'panic' over Saudi–UAE rift as financial firms prepare 'contingency plans' Bloomberg said they do not expect “a direct confrontation” between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but warned that companies are “concerned they might be forced to make harder choices between Riyadh or Abu Dhabi moving forward as both sides grow more assertive.”❞ thecradle.co/articles-id/38…

Shocked. I am shocked that this well thought out, effective, not at all improvised Iran policy has done a U-y.

Even POTUS saw the problem with his earlier announcement!

@MFATNZ A classic of contemporary one-eyed NZ diplomacy. How we have reduced ourselves!

Today MFAT called in the Iranian Ambassador to convey New Zealand’s serious concerns regarding recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and across the Gulf region. We urged immediate de-escalation and a return to diplomacy, and reiterated our condemnation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ destabilising activities, including beyond the Middle East.

India therefore faces a persistent two-front challenge in which an inimical Pakistan, an adversarial China, and an often equivocal United States interact in ways that complicate its security. This structural reality cannot be wished away by periodic improvements in bilateral ties with Washington.

The US-Pakistan-China triangle remains a central factor in India’s security calculus. It is not a temporary alignment of interests but a structural feature of the strategic environment that has shaped the subcontinent for decades.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that Washington and Tehran signed in mid-June, which was supposed to reopen the strait, granted Iran the ability to sell its crude oil without penalty and provided both sides with another two months to settle on a more comprehensive deal, has been torn to shreds in a matter of days. The US military has struck hundreds of Iranian targets since last Wednesday. The oil sanctions waiver the Americans provided was rescinded, locking in Tehran's crude sales yet again. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by expanding the scope of its drone and missile strikes; the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Jordan have all been attacked since the weekend, although damage has fortunately been minimal. ✍️ Daniel DePetris Article | spectator.com/article/trump-…

Oil Surges Most Since 2020, Reflecting Bet That Strait Won’t Go Back to Normal International crude price climbed more than 10% after President Trump said he would reimpose U.S. blockade wsj.com/finance/commod…

“A deeper research agenda requires stronger firsthand knowledge of the country. Yet direct exchanges between China and India contracted just as this need became more urgent. In 2018, nearly 280,000 visitors from mainland China travelled to India. Since 2020, direct flights and tourist visas have remained suspended, sharply reducing opportunities for researchers to conduct fieldwork and sustain academic linkages in India.”