@sporadica They need it to securitize all those puts (insurance) they sell? Otherwise , I totally agree. Equities empirically skew to being real assets that grow with inflation. He should have more.
English
Studier of Markets
949 posts
Studier of Markets
@BSMdeltas
“ye with the best distribution and the fortitude to act upon said distribution, wins.” tech stocks, options strats, asset pricing , macro
Katılım Eylül 2023
719 Takip Edilen532 Takipçiler
can someone explain to me how this is somehow a smart move by Buffett, because frankly it seems like a pretty big failure on the part of Berkshire to be sitting on cash and T-bills while inflation skyrockets and the market keeps on absolutely pumping
a16z@a16z
Berkshire is sitting on the largest pile of cash in its history More charts: a16z.news/p/charts-of-th…
English
@borrowed_ideas They have less revenue streams than the other hyperscalers. Meta is entirely dependent on reels monetization (admittedly they are doing a great job) , while Googl has subscriptions, ad monetization and TPUs , AMZN has AWS and retail dominance (low margin, I know) , etc , etc
English
"I actually find it quite ironic that Meta, the hyperscaler that has the highest quality revenue streams today since they don’t engage in the circular financing shenanigans with AI labs, trades at the lowest multiple despite growing revenue faster than their hyperscaler peers"
Mostly Borrowed Ideas@borrowed_ideas
$AMZN 1Q'26: Rosy Near-term but "Cloudy" Long-term
English
@neilksethi I know he’s been wrong before (who hasn’t) but his timing on buying in early April was good
English
@BSMdeltas He has been pointing to the median stock seeing double digit earnings growth expectations for his broadening bias.
English
Nomura (McElligott):
after a brief “Dispersion” dynamic in 4Q25 and 1Q26 where US Equities single-name and thematic returns finally broadened-out (remember when Cyclicals and Defensives were the S&P’s best performing sectors Oct ‘25 through end Feb ‘26?!?!) and created a reversal of said prior multi-year “High Concentration” dynamic—where Equities returns were almost entirely dependent upon an extremely narrow sliver of “MegaCap Tech / Mag7+ / AI” Stocks…
The post- Iran War / post- Mythos / post- Hyperscaler Earnings -world has instead shocked “Back To The Future,” where the Mag7+ / MegaCap Tech stuff is back in total control of Equities Index returns, i.e. Ten Tech Stocks are ~75% of the 12 SPX Rally since March 30th [through Wednesday's close]”
English
@TMTLongShort Agreed. Been following him for a while. At first I thought he was a charlatan but he knows what he’s talking about. Box is also stuck with a legacy product in a market where its competition is the largest companies in the world (AWS, Azure, Google cloud)
English
Aaron Levie (CEO of Box) is objectively both very intelligent and deeply in the weeds of AI progress and agents.
If even BOX can’t figure out how to materially accelerate growth in the current paradigm what does that say about the rest of enterprise SaaS who generally have exec teams that are far more checked out….
Something to think about.
English
@sarcastic_hedgi I don’t disagree on the cta positioning being light. And I think you make a valid point on uncertainty as to how legit the rally is. EPS estimates keep ripping (good) , geopol still very dangerous (bad). Mkt needed a breather
English
month-end rebal flows get way too much credit... yeah there's mechanical selling but it's not like CTAs were sitting max long into that realized vol asymmetry without already trimming
the real issue is nobody wanted to fade the rip so now everyone's stuck deciding if this dip is buyable or the start of actual unwind
English
agreed but market was primed for somewhat of a correction. Lots of selling pressure from month end rebal (fixed equity weights for many systematics require massive selling after nearly unprecedented 18 day rally where upside realized vol is 3x the downside RVs over past month).
Pair this with fomc presser and ~50% of the index reporting over next couple days and it feels pretty obvi there was going to be a down day. Good for technicians who positioned for puts,but I am planning on monetizing my shorts / closing at open ... I suspect this will be a shallow dip despite the bmo (before market open) jitters
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort
The demand for intelligence is unlimited. OAI is objectively on track to blowout what sellside was modeling for 2026 revenue…by a lot. Panicans are retarded.
English
@github @OpenAIDevs Absolutely ridiculous rug pull on GitHub copilot pro users who grew accustomed to the best frontier models in vscode
English
🆕 @OpenAIDevs GPT-5.5 is now generally available and rolling out in GitHub Copilot.
Our early testing shows
➡️ It delivers its strongest performance on complex agentic coding tasks
➡️ It resolves real-world coding challenges previous GPT models couldn’t
Try it out in Copilot CLI or @code. 👇
github.blog/changelog/2026…
English
@bespokeinvest I believe this is the market partially pricing in more expensive experimentation with AI, but not necessarily receiving margin enhancement . Good for the biggest companies with a role in AI build out. Meh for customers of the LLMs
English
This is part technical de-risking after years of US outperformance , rotating out of / taking profits , and then of course , partially mechanical / accounting-based rebalancing of current account and capital account (which must balance)
Current acct (ex-im) + capital acct (us assets held by abroad - foreign assets held by Us citizens) =0
English
INVESTORS DUMP U.S. STOCKS AS GLOBAL ROTATION BUILDS
Investors are pulling money out of U.S. equities and shifting into international markets, with the trend accelerating into Q2, according to Bank of America.
Funds sold $15.4B in U.S. stocks in March while buying heavily in Europe and Japan. Over the past year, U.S. outflows have reached $284B, far exceeding inflows elsewhere.
Healthcare attracted strong buying, while tech—especially software and AI—saw major selling. Overall, active funds are now most overweight Europe and underweight the U.S.
English
@ryanburge This is likely more about the definition of “progressive” and “conservative” changing since late 60s, much akin to JFK would be a conservative today. I don’t think the church has dramatically changed and that’s a good thing
English
Among Catholic priests who were ordained in the late 1960s:
68% describe their theology as progressive.
16% said it was conservative.
Among priests ordained in the last few years:
2% describe their theology as progressive.
84% said it was conservative.
English
@wallstengine Lmao how did he make it about him? his ability to mutate a conversation into something about him will never cease to amaze me . Yes, I voted for him
English
TRUMP ON TIM COOK:
I have always been a big fan of Tim Cook, and likewise, Steve Jobs, but if Steve was not taken from the Planet Earth so young, and ran the company instead of Tim, the company would have done well, but nowhere near as well as it has under Tim. For me it began with a phone call from Tim at the beginning of my First Term. He had a fairly large problem that only I, as President, could fix.
Most people would have paid millions of dollars to a consultant, who I probably would not have known, but who would say that he knew me well. The fees would be paid but the job would not have gotten done. When I got the call I said, wow, it’s Tim Apple (Cook!) calling, how big is that? I was very impressed with myself to have the head of Apple calling to “kiss my ass.”
Anyway, he explained his problem, a tough one it was, I felt he was right and got it taken care of, quickly and effectively. That was the beginning of a long and very nice relationship. During my five years as President, Tim would call me, but never too much, and I would help him where I could. Years latter, after 3 or 4 BIG HELPS,
I started to say to people, anyone who would listen, that this guy is an amazing manager and leader. He makes these calls to me, I help him out (but not always, because he will, on occasion, be too aggressive in his ask!), and he gets the job done, QUICKLY, without a dime being given to those very expensive (millions of dollars!) consultants around town who sometimes get it done, and sometimes don’t.
Anyway, Tim Cook had an AMAZING career, almost incomparable, and will go on and continue to do great work for Apple, and whatever else he chooses to work on. Quite simply, Tim Cook is an incredible guy!!!
English
I think earnings estimates are probably the key first order, then I think of CTA positioning is a kicker for tactical , near term opportunities à la Inelastic markets hypothesis (Koijen and maybe yogo[?] or Gabaix[?] cannot remember off top of my head) , where flows really do matter / have a price impact far beyond what traditional 1 for 1 asset pricing models suggest. You see this is play out with melt ups prior to quarter end rebals (which throw wrenches into melt up due to anti-momentum characteristic/ sell high buy low to maintain portfolio weights)
English
Is there any strong (or weak) empirical evidence that CTA flows and subsequent market returns are related whatsoever? That CTA net buying, which is a function of trailing returns, has any impact on boosting market returns or vice versa?
My prior is no, which is why I always glossed over whenever someone says “CTA is about buy/sell next week”. Just like CTA buying/selling prob wasn’t the reason why stocks had gone up/selling that gave it its forward signal, I struggle to believe that it’s strong enough to move forward returns beyond second order.
Brandon Carl@brandonjcarl
Most market “research” I am seeing is looking at “inputs” (e.g. CTA buying) instead of “outputs” (subsequent market moves). This indicator is a great case in point. The high levels reached in 2023 portended a decline, not a rally. Forward earnings increases appear high correlated to energy prices. This is not even first-order thinking in the sense of a Taylor Series. It’s looking at the wrong conditional,
English
@biancoresearch What’s the use case of Bitcoin vs. use case of GPUs… ya “this time is different” doesn’t feel too scary to say especially in the early stages of the S-curve
English
Does anyone remember Dec 21, 2017, when Long Island Iced Tea rebranded as Long Blockchain? It was up 183% that day.
It was less than a week after the peak in Bitcoin's price, which then went on to fall 80% over the next year.
I know, this time is different.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
You can’t make this up: Allbird stock, $BIRD, was down -99% from its record high as of yesterday as the shoe company was collapsing. Today, Allbirds stock is up as much as +875% after entirely rebranding as an AI company. This includes selling all of its brands and footwear assets and rebranding to “Newbird AI.” And, the company will use a $50M convertible financing facility to “acquire high-performance GPU assets.” Even shoe companies are moving into AI.
English
Studier of Markets retweetledi
@ZeeContrarian1 Not a bad trade per se , I see the logic
BUT I think we violently touch qqq ATHs when sorted out which will smoke this trade structure beyond 611 qqq
English
@litcapital Overly political people that cannot stand western exceptionalism
English
Genuine question, why do certain people hate Palantir so much?
English
@FundamentEdge You are so well spoken for someone without edge
English
It is underdiscussed how much great short selling talent sits at multis, and how important alpha shorting really is to success in the multi-manager model.
One big short, particularly in a low vol name you can size in dollars, can make your year.
For example, take a typical $2bn GMV book with a 3% vol such that a 1-sharpe is $60m P&L, a reasonable threshold for P&L generation (1-sharpe "acceptable", 2-sharpe "alpha god").
Say I have a low vol short I can size at $60m and fits nicely in my portfolio (offsets a factor lean, for example). That $60m short doesn't actually then consume a whole lot of $ vol.
If I can nail something like down 50%, I've generated $30m of P&L, or half of an acceptable year. If my corresponding long is up 50%, I've generated my entire year on one pair trade. Now, obviously easier said than done, but you do regularly get trade opportunities like this (in HC, $UNH in '25, $PFE in '23, etc, you often get 1-2 shots a year like this in that space). The in these lower vol names you can actually size them often as risk case if you are wrong is not a "shoot to kill" take it to the chin penalty, but often set up as +20/-50% sort of short R/Rs (which is why great pod PMs find these with regularity and size them very big).
Perception on this app is that "pod monkeys" are just chasing every data point and spivving out on conference pre-announcements. Sure, there is some of that. But you see much more pure, excellent short selling than people on this app realize (even, certainly, more than many single managers who, scared post $GME, have sized down shorts).
Lots of great short selling talent has migrated to the multis over the last 5 years.
TBU@TBU12345678
I am often more impressed by someone who can pitch a good short than a good long ("real men short stocks"). I have in the past long held that the best short sellers sit at the Tiger Cubs, but increasingly believe the "next" best short seller currently sits at a pod given incentive structures + ability to stick with a big idea: - if you work at an SM, a long is 500bps and a short is 50bps. In no world does it make sense to spend an incremental minute on shorts since they can't be sized so performance is immaterial to the fund - pods conversely always need to be short stocks in size and the reward of catching a big beta name that breaks (e.g., $SMCI in 2024-25) is massive in that you get to own a ton of beta on the other side + you're making nominal dollars on your "funder". catching one of these in any kind of size has a material impact to your year
English
Opus is so unbelievably nerfed today, it's like talking to a model from 2-3 years ago. What is going on
English