Cycle Bottom.
54.8K posts

Cycle Bottom.
@BULLRetrurn
Retiring Investment Manager


@BULLReturns Most definitely


@BULLReturns Short-run gasoline elasticity is roughly -0.03. A 50% cut requires sustained prices that force structural change: fleet turnover, commute shifts, land-use decisions. Behavioral choice alone won't get you there.


@BULLReturns Interesting question. The voters here are probably on the wealthier side as well so the results will be lower with average income. In Denmark, diesel costs about $2.80 per liter, which is roughly $10.60 per gallon.


@BULLReturns Do you have a group?


@BULLReturns I don’t think they’ll let it get too bad without being creative. Just now hit $4.29/gal here. If it hits $5 on average nationwide they’ll have to make a move or lose midterms. Temporary gas tax holiday will come first I bet. Federal tax is 18.4 cents. My state is like 26 cents.


@BULLReturns Do you think there will be a sudden crash or will it just be a steady decline?


@BULLReturns Views on $cla.ax sir?


@BULLReturns Yeah it makes sense. Still odd they’d buy so much higher considering the potential for lower guess they dont care when they invest so much for a longer time frame…. But yes top ups ar .14 and .16 recently and allocation to the chinese investor already down a bit 🤷♂️


Could I trouble you for a view on oil producers in this situation; it seems to me that oil is going significantly higher (or at least staying 'higher for longer'), and cashflowing unhedged oil producers are likely to inflect higher on a market crash. Am I missing something here? Do you see oil producers also getting hit with contagion even as oil price climbs?










