BYOBB

Still can’t believe they did this.

What Hormuz Teaches About Money ~20 million barrels/day normally move through Hormuz. ~140 million barrels/week. ~1.3 days of total world oil production disrupted for every week the route is shut. So far: ~360–390 million barrels lost or delayed ~3.5–3.7 days of total global oil output The oil did not disappear. The route broke. That changes pricing fast, higher: insurance freight storage backup capacity capital costs This is the deeper point: The world runs on chokepoints. Energy chokepoints. Shipping chokepoints. Payment chokepoints. When a chokepoint fails, reliability becomes more valuable. That is where Bitcoin enters. Bitcoin: moves 24/7. settles globally. runs on rules. The asset that matters most is the one that still works when the pathway fails.

🇮🇷 Don't waste time discussing Iran closing the Hormuz Strait; it can't and it's not in its interest. The possibility is zero. Instead, focus on Iran's proxies' fireworks NEAR the Hormuz Strait, though their impact on oil and gas markets is minimal.

BREAKING 🚨 Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent gave a huge shoutout to Trump saying hes the best at Strategic Uncertainty, part of Game Theory “Nobody does it better than President Trump” I FULLY TRUST DONALD TRUMP

We are nowhere near normalization — and this will be too nuanced for many who have an axe to grind — but the number of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz has unambiguously risen off the lows during the last 48 hours. Tankers, dry bulk, LPG. It’s a start.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump just exposed that Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are DEMANDING amnesty for millions of illegal aliens in exchange for a DHS funding deal NEVER! Hold the line, GOP! "The Democrats don’t want to make any deal unless Amnesty and Citizenship is given to millions of Criminals who have entered our Country illegally, many of whom have been convicted of serious crimes. PROTECT AMERICA!"

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Price Is Driven by Its Power-Law Structure, Not Headlines Most people look at ETFs, Saylor, macro headlines, and sovereign adoption and think those things determine Bitcoin’s long-term price. They do not. They are flows entering Bitcoin. Think of a river basin. The basin is the structure: channels, tributaries, slopes, drainage paths. The storm is the flow: rain, runoff, floods. The storm matters. But the storm is not the basin. ETFs are flow. Saylor is flow. Retail FOMO is flow. Macro liquidity is flow. They can raise the water level. They can speed up the current. They can create surges. But they do not create the basin. Bitcoin’s basin is the protocol: fixed supply, difficulty adjustment, halving, decentralized consensus, and the incentive system built around it. That is the structure. This is why the slope on a log-log chart matters. If Bitcoin follows: P = C × t^m then log(P) = log(C) + m·log(t) The slope is m. That is scale invariance. Players change. Flows change. Headlines change. But if the exponent stays the same, the underlying structure is still expressing itself the same way. ETFs can push price above trend. Saylor can accelerate the move. Macro can push price below trend. Those are deviations around the line. They do not automatically change the slope because they do not automatically change the structure that produced the slope. The slope changes only if the underlying dynamics change: The monetary rules. The incentive system. The security model. The network effects. The long-run adoption structure. In 2011, the flows were tiny. In 2026, they are massive. Different scale. Same basin. Different players. Same structure. Bitcoin is not the storm. It is the basin every storm must pass through. The power law is not the weather. It is the underlying structure of the system.

The last United States President that didn’t drop a single bomb on a foreign country was: Jimmy Carter (1977-1981)

Trump is NOT escalating this into a major ground war. Let me spell this out with crayons. I’m a US Merchant Marine Captain, O6 (not O3) equivalent. We are a tiny forgotten service with one MF overarching specialty: moving escalatory armies overseas. It’s true a general like McChrystal has far more knowledge about what to do AFTER his tanks roll off our ships. But BEFORE those tanks roll off? They are OUR cargo. We are the specialists. We climb all around those tanks. We secure them, move them, deliver them. Our Commandant, who I talk to every single week, is in charge of that lift. Not whatever general is waiting on the pier. Right now we are in the BEFORE stage. I absolutely 💯 know more about this than any general because I have spent decades training and living the life for THIS MOMENT. When generals want to move escalatory army divisions overseas, they call us. We don’t specialize in every branch. Naval, Air Force, USMC, Special Forces movements have their own lift pipelines. We can help, but that’s not our core mission. But if you want to escalate a war with heavy ground forces? I get a call. The Air Force has already called us to move more bombs into theater. So yes, the air campaign can escalate. But there are ZERO plans to escalate this into a large scale ground invasion. ZERO. This cannot be done by airlift. The USAF can’t even get their own bombs overseas right now, let alone divisions of army units. And if I do get the call, it will be months before we are landing tanks.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ So I repeat… this CAN NOT turn into a major war without my phone ringing. You can send Marines and air assault units without tanks to do raids but a major landing force like McChrystal is talking about just is not happening. Not yet. Not for months, if ever. And when it does happen I will tell you because you can’t move Army divisions in secret. Not since the Army, in a moment of idiocy, sold off its Merchant Marine preposition fleet last year.