Bryan Remillard

@GK_Fellows @ExnerPirot Kent, based on bitumen revenue not Dilbit, not sure people are realizing how big the premium is for waterborne barrels today, Maya Heavy Far East Deliveries since Iran has been $108/bbl US or $15-$20/bbl premium vs USGC

@B_A_Remillard @ExnerPirot Let's say rcp price is $120 (very very generous when WCS is less than that) and let's say allowable costs are $40 a barrel of dilbit (again, generous when diluent is probably through the roof).

The cost of saying no: ➡️Northern Gateway capacity 525kb/(bitumen 400kbd, diluent 125kb/d) ➡️400kb/d at CAD $125 at tidewater x the Strait closed for 60 days = $3billion in lost revenues ➡️ government royalties and taxes ~33% = $1 billion ➡️ $1 billion = 10,000 nurses or 29 new schools *That’s what we have given up from not having Northern Gateway, just since the Strait of Hormuz was closed* H/T @B_A_Remillard

@GK_Fellows @ExnerPirot Yes, based on bitumen revenue, include both opex and Sus capex, Net Rev *40% rate ~ 850 MM Roy.

@B_A_Remillard @ExnerPirot Let's stick w/ the $3B in revenue assumption for incremental post-payout (which is probably high, but whatever). You still need to net off allowable costs before multiplying by the post-payout royalty rates (diluent alone takes a big chunk, particularly w/ higher crude prices).

@GK_Fellows @ExnerPirot Note: sssumes dilbit, using synbit as an assumption instead, SCO premium plus additional bbls by using an upgraded bbl for diluent (20% shinkage) would add another 70 kbpd in the calc.

@GK_Fellows @ExnerPirot Good ?, incremental prod/royalty/tax, based on stand-alone economic modelling ramping up in 2018, using flowing bbl capex b/t expansion/greenfield-hist. pricing reaches payout before 2025. Tolls are netted out of the current Far East physical premium waterborne (120-125CAD).

@ExnerPirot @andrew_leach "marginal bbl sets the price for all WCS barrels" not that simple unfortunately, critical distinction NG p/l, removes buyer power Midwest, NG does not violate the marginal price logic, it segments the market in which Cdn barrels clear, waterborne-Brent, scarcity rent option...

@andrew_leach But how much less poor would we be if we had it the last five years, and especially this year

Western Canadian oil is selling for the cheapest in the world because we landlocked our oil 😪 Some economist please calculate how many billions we are losing because we don’t have Northern Gateway right now bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@ExnerPirot Does not include loss of spend and socioeconomic benefits- jobs, Personal Income Tax, or geoeconomic security/ soft power additional trade, >$100 US billion over last 10 years, today cost is only 2nd to 2018 when diffs blew out

@ExnerPirot Many layers cost by canceling Northern Gateway: 1 - not able to receive global pricing - all bbls 2 additional discount on higher TAN barrels 3 cost of curtailment 4 loss / delay of growth 5 premium paid for diluent , 6 premium price during tight markets: > 100B US last 15 years

@ExnerPirot Yes - frustrating, should’ve been, Rick George on why he backed Northern Gateway 15 years ago, it’s a matter of "Canadian sovereignty"

This could’ve been Northern Gateway and Kitimat

Fun fact: the “inferior, unwanted” 🇨🇦 oil sands product the green lobby smacked around for years to thwart pipelines is commanding $19.25/barrel above WTI this week – up nearly 200% since March 27. The real story: our major producers including $CNQ $CVE $SU have been quietly innovating to service the world with an efficient, greening product that is effectively in unlimited supply (and, ICYMI, very profitable).

Synthetic Canadian oil prized by refiners for its rich diesel output tripled in a matter of days amid a worldwide clamor to secure supplies of the truck and train fuel. The oil produced via special processing of bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands is commanding $19.25 a barrel more than the monthly average for the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, according to Modern Commodities data. That’s an almost 200% increase since March 27. #oott

@ExnerPirot I do love it when the market works, dumb may be an understatement here

The World's Dumbest Tariff Has Been Revealed “Trump’s 50% tariff and removal of an exemption for Canada drove producers there to send US-bound shipments to Europe instead. In just a few months, Aluminerie Alouette – North America's largest smelter – saw its European sales rise from 4% of production to 57%. Rio Tinto Plc largely stopped shipping Canadian aluminum to the US, and even Alcoa diverted around 100,000 metric tons to non-US destinations.” bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

@ExnerPirot Well said Heather, that “generational fumble” created the high risk against a proponent today, unfortunately gov’t will need to de-risk this for the superior long term solution globally and for Canada, 😔

It’s now obvious that Keystone is going to be easier and more economic than a northwest pipeline and will move first. That’s our own doing, Canada, and I greatly lament that fact. We couldn’t have gotten a more serious lesson in realism and geopolitics this past 18 months, and three weeks, yet still we will be putting more barrels south than in to the Pacific. But it occurred to me the real “generational fumble” was cancelling Northern Gateway in 2018. A privately funded pipeline, 90% through consultation and regs, that we let slide, nay, pushed away. A pox on everyone that contributed to that outcome, and to us making the same mistake less than a decade later. Real people are facing a real energy crisis in Asia Pacific today and we could’ve been in a way better position to help.

@ExnerPirot Thank You 🙏- we shouldn’t need a global crisis and war to be reminded of this, and hopeful this reminder is short lived.

Some of you still seem to think oil is only used for gasoline for light duty vehicles, because that’s the only time you’ve physically encountered it. Expensive and scarce oil is an omnicrisis for the global economy. It cannot be replaced by electrons from solar panels.

@ExnerPirot Energy Futures Scenarios - oh my I rate that a 5 but won’t tell what the scale is on 😉

Not sure we want mystery and surprises from our energy regulator right now

@ExnerPirot @politicalham 🎯 100%, 2015, believe discussion SGER $15/T Alberta first carbon levy, to a new Tier system to increase by 2018 to $30/T, OBPS Fed original 2019 started at $20/T topping at $50 I believe - both far from $130/T

@politicalham Now you’re being intellectually dishonest. The problem isn’t a carbon price. It’s a carbon price of $130/tonne, which puts most production on the wrong side of competitiveness. Current TIER is widely accepted.

This is the kind of intellectual dishonesty that @ExnerPirot and other oil shills are famous for. In 2015, the oil sands industry actively lobbied FOR an industrial carbon tax. We must be carbon-competitive, they said. My receipts? Dozens of interviews with industry insiders.

@andrew_leach Technically true but deceptive

Behold, Ottawa's war on Alberta oil

@ExnerPirot 👍 My home town, congrats Olds and Alberta, amazing people, life long friends, opportunities it provided to pay for school, whether it was building grain bins or turnarounds at the gas plants - will always be grateful that I grew up there

The Town of Olds announced Tuesday that Synapse Data Centre Inc. plans to invest $10 billion over two years building a one-gigawatt data centre in the town. Alberta town chosen as home to Canada's largest data centre rmoutlook.com/beyond-local/a…

.@CharlesLammam: A trillion-dollar gap: 12 charts highlighting Canada’s capital flight crisis thehub.ca/2026/01/26/a-t…

@Rory_Johnston Careful-this analysis might expose a competitiveness issue for growth. Net Roy Rate - pseudo windfall royalty resource tax on a product that oil sands do not produce, limiting any upside of rent to offset risk to greenfield economics. Use AWB pricing, even more interesting.

Oil price chart, but instead of $/bbl it's in the sliding net revenue royalty rate borne by post-payout Alberta oilsands projects

@timthielmann Mind boggling is 1950 equipment original TMX pipeline- from inception of company engineering, to operations took under 3 years , with construction 1 year to build.

The TMX pipeline expansion had an original budget of $5.4 billion but ended up costing $34 billion and it took 12 years to come online, a seven year delay. The Canadian government was forced to purchase the project in 2018 due largely to objections from indigenous groups during constitutionally mandated, consultation and legal processes. Comparable pipeline projects in Texas take 2 to 4 years. This ridiculousness was the status quo BEFORE DRIPA was passed in 2019. And the judiciary has only become more captured by anti-colonial ideology in the ensuing period. So let’s stop pretending that mere tough talk denouncing “vetoes” or simply repealing DRIPA will liberate our economy much less trigger an eruption of productive investment. Sorry. I wish it were that easy. These obvious and urgent actions will only stop the bleeding. If you want to inspire hope for an economic recovery here in British Columbia, it will require nothing less than the amendment of Canada’s constitution to remove aboriginal rights and title. Aside from pursuing independence, this is the only way to stop tribal chiefs, woke judges, and US billionaires from conspiring to thwart pipelines and other development projects necessary for our economic survival. This is the reality we face, the sooner we come to grips with it the better.