Bagus P. Perdana

The Tyranny Of Benchmark (MSCI ki Angel Lur!) Had a banter with MSCI today (TCW Event - Gatot Subroto, Jakarta) Me : Capital flows because of Index Weight, not Expected Return. Indonesia sits at roughly 0.8 Pct of MSCI EM, "When you froze rebalancing and tightened foreign-inclusion Factors, you de facto co-determined Indonesian monetary policy at the margin. - Bank Indonesia had to defend the rupiah while you re-priced the float. Guys are frontrunning the rebalances and risk premia uptick. So How does MSCI internalize the macroprudential externality of its own methodology?" The MSCI Guy's Answer is Harsh and not pre-cooked : Verbatim "We had no considerations on macro impact in our methodologies, our index users are soverereign wealth funds, employee and pensioners fund, endowment etc, the kind of public investors that we had to protect and so the index has to be investible" (PalmFace) Me : Wise Words eh, *ingan! But to Ponder Further some realities : A world of passives and narratives, global asset allocators used to treat "EM" as tactical bet, on a mining-energy-asset inflationary nexus. A second layer of that a "Country Bet" Less so now, systematically not MSCI EM is now driven by North Asia (SK Taiwan), Riding on the Narratives of AI and Semis supply chain. Means its no longer tactical, its getting more "strategic" with return driven by momentum and less value. The country call itselves discarded, change into sectoral-thematic layer. To the fact on the MSCI EM Weight of Countries-is only a nod to its internal Sector Composition - we, financials - mining is out of party. We became a less than % rounding errors. So what to make of ? Post Reform can we regain our proper weight ? Depends, if the world still define return as is, hardly: but if event-horizon bring us the "Minsky Questions" , Capitalism History Withstanding, the value spread will narrow and Possibly Index Equal Weighted will Beat Index Market Cap Weighted! (cue, some asset allocators already position for such scenario - EM leads DM, Pity Us Excluded). Cuk the Tyranny!

Yes and No sih, Yes nya Dividend Repat Season. No nya if everyone notice, BI "de-facto" increase Rate via SRBI rate tinggi.. Yuuuge Amount, $1.1 Bn , Hampir se Capital Outflow dr Bond en Equity minggu kemaren. Watch JCI if after D-Day badnews no longer corrected. Marginal Seller only has 1 last leg. MSCI mechanical flush passived. Hedgies cover window.

Rupiah Diprediksi Melemah ke Rp 17.550 Pekan Depan

Heck of a capex vortex! Yuuge gap OCF vs NI (what was traded about?!) . See ; Burn Rate 1Qtr = 1Tn IDR against 5Tn IDR Runway - 1 Year before Refinancing (what mockery would become of the credit agency) Annualized Int Expense ~500 Bn Fixed Frequency Cost ~ 480ish Bn Capex - Freezed with No Public Compliment about Network Stability = U never ever stop Capex Mid-Way Network Building selling Services 2 C Half of Book Value is Capitalized Lease of KAI asset + Dubious P&L to CF mismatch. Base Rate Outlook Higher, Corp credit spread higher, FX mismatch translation heavier. Definitely an equity circular call on Horizon.

@barang_antique @buildportosaham WIFI kalo komit, very inclusive business. harapan nya semoga. Karena wajah WIFI satunya lagi (Pre Hasjim Masuk) adalah "Proyekan SandBag Story H Tee & couple Friends". Hasjim dillute mereka ini sebenernya udah one good sign, idealnya keep do so, roll-out and inject. Make it lasts

WIFI Lagi Banyak Dilirik, Tapi Sebenarnya Menarik atau Sudah Kemahalan?

Hi Ibnu, sori baru bales. inti Maksud ricuhan saya, BI jangan di frame lanjutkan buang devisa, ini sumbernya memang risk off krn global outflow + persepsi kredibilitas fiskal. Utamanya BI fasilitasi gradual repricing rupiah sambil pemerintah main taktis, bikin rupiah dapet natural bid

Bang mau nanya, ini saya coba pakai AI untuk mengartikan maksud tweet Abang. Apakah ini benar?

@NickTimiraos Resep nguatin Rupiah.. Izin, Pak P

What’s the heavier lift: 365 lbs on your 67th birthday or telling your colleagues you changed your mind on rate cuts? Chris Waller seems comfortable with both. (He posted this video on his LinkedIn account)

@BigAlphaID Bae bae, badan itu bukan pribadi.. dah kek kyrie game 7 2016. Samperin KPP nya aja mendingan.

[BREAKING] Menkeu Purbaya resmi memperpanjang batas pelaporan SPT Badan menjadi 31 Mei 2026.

Coretax rasa Clutch Time! Pejuang Submit Eror Layanan, Heave-Ho! (samperin kandangnya langsung aja udahh)

@cicilan12bulan_ Sulit kita tahu direction nya dari mana, semoga sih corrective action otherwise credit rating bullet unaviodable

@BagusPerdana_ Govt also didnt help... Imported 35,000 truck + 25,000 e-bike for 'priority program'.

Tempo ente know better than to frame BI to defend perilously, kalo mau defend IDR harus bareng naekkin rate real rate kita 1.5 Pct real rate si Fed 1 Pct with Hawk Chair FrontRunning ya 50 Bps hardly carry lah, Otherwise buang Cadev Expensively and Foolishly (udah tipis woi), Rupiah melemah ini fungsi 2 Hal : 1. memang kita lagi di repriced net risk premium blunder sinyal fiskal (U name it Dadan my King..). 2 "Besiege Wei to Rescue Zhao!" Fiscal Gap Issue justru bisa dihandle to retain credibility if cards laid properly, itu USD eksportir buka lebar tax the windfall higher, Demand di manage via geser subsidi oil ke EV. capital account ga bisa dilawan, yang bener reserves cover ratio dijaga, corp debt itu juga di hedged sumbernya BI cari swapline direct ke Fed (mosok udah jd Trump bestie gadikasi) weakness di IDR sementara di crowd out higher SRBI domestik, inflasi angkat beban utang di domestik, mini repression lah mumpung dikasih sama market. Framing nya gitu lah apa ente bener bener antek soros hah soros ude kapok maen IDR!

Gambar Kiri (Real Rate Ketipisan To Induce Carry) Gambar Kanan (Reserves Cover Makin Rendah ya masa Diekspos sampe dibawah batas, tar diitung currency predator lagi) mending kan -Kasi Sinyal Better Fiskal Discipline -Tarik Billateral Swap Line -Buka Ekspor supaya Rupiah Got the Natural Bid, dari cerminan Fear in the right tactics bisa balik jadi seed of greed.

@BagusPerdana_ Artinya rupiah bakalan dibiarin gitu aja hanya intervensi valas tanpa bi rate naik bang?

Takutnya kalo di frame publik begini terus ya BI reckless, perihal bahaya yang dulu2 kan kita pas defend peg sampe kuras reserves. Ini ratio reserves mepet masa mau diamblesin. If price needs to be lower for capital to keep flowing, lowering price is the more rational policy, sambil fiskal nya dibikin lebih kredibel (Dadan My King Do You Hear, Hey Hey!)

Shoutout Jay Enjoy Siskamling Days, Urip iku mung mampir "Transitory" yes!

Everytime We Became the Punchline, Every Knock Nail Us Down Underdog! Tidak Hari Ini, Not in Our Watch! morguevanguard.bandcamp.com/track/kontra-m…

@RidwanRWG Permasalahan hari ini coba dipecahkan dengan solusi jaman tertinggal, dengan eksekusi yang membuat korps tukang bubur motor tambun terlihat lebih profesional

@BagusPerdana_ mati lah yg di bawah makin dijepit mana mbg dikata bisa nolong yg bawah tapi yg diuntung yg punya relasi buat bikin dapur dikata bisa trickle down economy segampang itu tapi ya sudah lah

Inflasi Selow di 3% (BPS), Tapi Kopi Sore Naik 14% (CLSA Komodo) BI ogah naikin rate, jadi Rupiah yang "kulo-nuwun". Pengetatan moneter tetap jalan — cuma rutenya pindah dari BI Repo Rate ke pasar valas. Pelemahan Rupiah ITU-lah pengetatan moneternya. Bedanya cuma siapa yang bayar: kalau lewat suku bunga, yang nyicil KPR dan korporasi berutang yang menjerit; kalau lewat Rupiah, balad cikopi yang nanggung — lewat passthrough harga bahan baku ke gelas kopi sore. Indonesia 2026: BI pilih Rupiah, fiskal pilih MBG, CPI pilih untuk tidak melihat. Tiga kebijakan, satu konsumen - dan dia yang akhirnya downsize pesanan kopinya. Sruput!

@nabielakbarperd Lembaga yang sama nyatet jet tempur retrofit sebagai net output GDP 😶‍🌫️

@BagusPerdana_ Ya inflasi real di indo 10-15%… emang gak sejalan sama data BPS

@Friday_SOL Matak bangun ningali running trade brad

@BagusPerdana_ eta mah lain kopi atuh kang, mocktail rasa ci kopi

@valenttt____ Himbara lagi kena ah ampun

Bloomberg > Indonesian telecommunications firm PT Solusi Sinergi Digital Tbk is turning to private credit after shelving plans to issue public bonds amid lukewarm investor appetite, people familiar with the matter said. The company, also known as Surge, is looking to raise $300 million via senior secured notes, which are expected to be privately placed with a small number of investors, the people said, who asked not to be identified discussing private matters. The proceeds will partially fund the roll-out of its fixed wireless access facility, the people said, adding that the firm will use its existing cash reserves to fund the shortfall.

@spectatorindex Comfortable with Indefinite, but MidTerm in seven!

President Trump is comfortable with an indefinite blockade of Iranian ports, according to Wall Street Journal report.

@harwib10 🍻 Cheers the Brigade!

@BagusPerdana_ Hahaha but make no mistake the real trade isn’t gone, ROIC > CoC, stable ASP, and a first dividend post-quasi is a legitimate compounding thesis. But again yeahhh that’s a patient money game, not a 500,000 strong YOLO brigade from Depok refreshing their Stockbit feed 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Can You Lose On Purpose ?! Ode buat Sobad🌏! I was thrilled when checking this. Mid-Pump, Kurang dari setahun tercatat hampir 500 Ribu tambahan shareholders masuk ke $BUMI. U know every IDX investor of my vintage (2000s) has a Bakrie story tucked somewhere between their first portfolio and their first lesson in humility. 500 Thousand grandfleet! For ground Household di Depok ada 580ribuan jadi ini kaya semua warga di Depok tiba tiba punya tambang Batubara! Diversity Breakdown! What Implied ? Phase Transition : 2008 Peak -IDR 8750 2015 Through - IDR 50 12-month range — 70 to 484. Today — about 210 17.5 Year Journey - to 2026, more than 99 pct drawdown, now on 5 pct Recovery. 500,000 Army Arrived. Early or Terminal? Sedikit telisik; Return saham dr 4 driver: pertumbuhan profit, perubahan multiple, dividen, dilusi saham. last 12 months: in TSR lens ✅ Op. profit ++ YoY , Leverage Operational Mulai Trickle ke Margin ✅ Multiple - Expand as Profit ++ , Overshooting peers industry ✅ Share count stabil - After Big Dillution in Phase 1 Transition ⚠️ Net income ikut Siklikal ASP - Now In Good Cycle Who Switch ? : Back to the question. Someone sold positions to the new 500,000 army. That someone is almost certainly: • Patient money who bought in 2011–2020 darkness, finally taking profit • Creditors-turned-shareholders from debt restructuring • Possible insiders harvesting at strength -So at current price IDR 210 - retrace from 1Yr High the Depok Army (New 500,000) isnt the Crowd Who Won, Its the Crowd that Arrived. But we held the signpost that the Army is Not the Exit Liquidity - its a Barricade Enclaving Real Turnaround in Separation. ROIC > cost of capital, multi-quarter Coal stable at elevated guidance ($60–65/t) New minerals throwing off cash First dividend (Post Quasi) Buying a stock without asking who's selling is gambling, part of the 500,000 army nosedeep YOLOing. A few others is Asking — and answering honestly — at this point its investing. The shareholder count says the easy money is already made. The Multiple Expansion Part - that has been sold. The Faithful though, will rode the TSR driver inversion!

@mfauziny Hiding behind the standard "fiduciary defence" is circular: investibility criteria are themselves the policy lever. He doesn't measure macro impact because measuring it would create a duty of care he can't carry. **ngan indeed.

@BagusPerdana_ msci guy be like honestly, idgaf as long as your liquidity is trash and your weight is just a rounding error in my excel💀

The Tyranny Of Benchmark (MSCI ki Angel Lur!) Had a banter with MSCI today (TCW Event - Gatot Subroto, Jakarta) Me : Capital flows because of Index Weight, not Expected Return. Indonesia sits at roughly 0.8 Pct of MSCI EM, "When you froze rebalancing and tightened foreign-inclusion Factors, you de facto co-determined Indonesian monetary policy at the margin. - Bank Indonesia had to defend the rupiah while you re-priced the float. Guys are frontrunning the rebalances and risk premia uptick. So How does MSCI internalize the macroprudential externality of its own methodology?" The MSCI Guy's Answer is Harsh and not pre-cooked : Verbatim "We had no considerations on macro impact in our methodologies, our index users are soverereign wealth funds, employee and pensioners fund, endowment etc, the kind of public investors that we had to protect and so the index has to be investible" (PalmFace) Me : Wise Words eh, *ingan! But to Ponder Further some realities : A world of passives and narratives, global asset allocators used to treat "EM" as tactical bet, on a mining-energy-asset inflationary nexus. A second layer of that a "Country Bet" Less so now, systematically not MSCI EM is now driven by North Asia (SK Taiwan), Riding on the Narratives of AI and Semis supply chain. Means its no longer tactical, its getting more "strategic" with return driven by momentum and less value. The country call itselves discarded, change into sectoral-thematic layer. To the fact on the MSCI EM Weight of Countries-is only a nod to its internal Sector Composition - we, financials - mining is out of party. We became a less than % rounding errors. So what to make of ? Post Reform can we regain our proper weight ? Depends, if the world still define return as is, hardly: but if event-horizon bring us the "Minsky Questions" , Capitalism History Withstanding, the value spread will narrow and Possibly Index Equal Weighted will Beat Index Market Cap Weighted! (cue, some asset allocators already position for such scenario - EM leads DM, Pity Us Excluded). Cuk the Tyranny!