Haris Wib

2) Banks PE vs JCI, Vs Historikal Bandnya. lewat -2SD mendekati ke arah -3SD, ekstrim gaussian distribution. -3SD cuma kejadian di GFC dan Asia 98. kalo seller udah jualan, valuasi bottom apa yang bisa kita tunggu?. di segini supaya balik harus ada signal dan quality buyer. Political capitulation! udah bener warga saham ritel pada ramein! ramein supaya domestik Insti beli dan kasih depth, BPJS TASPEN DANANTARA the likes!. kalo Mereka kasih sinyal masuk, foreign will cover. kalo cover, Capital Account leak berubah jadi drizzle inflow balik. to be fair, foreign itu mostly momentum_macro player, gak akan aneh pada beli balik dari titik lemah rupiah dan bottom level saham bank. they get get paid twice — once from the asset, once from the currency. Equity return path: From −3SD P/B to −2SD = +15-2-% upside Currency return path: From Rp 17,500 to a normalized Rp 16,500 = +8% appreciation. Semoga masih pada dingin dan sedia pelor, Jumat Barokah Lur!

Big Banks $JCI, Buat Yang Nyangkut-Nyangkut Aja! 1) Mumet, Kapan Selesai Turun ? Lihat Foreign Ownership - Marginal Seller Exhaustion, dekat historikal low, match sama incremental bad news : Rupiah Lemah Check. NIM Compression Check. Higher Provision Check. ini Foreign Ownership Comparison $BBCA $BBRI dibanding Mei 2020 (COVID), Anggep Foreign holder sebagai seller marginal, maka tengki bottom sebentar lagi sampai. Relieved?. Lanjut

@BagusPerdana_ Hahaha but make no mistake the real trade isn’t gone, ROIC > CoC, stable ASP, and a first dividend post-quasi is a legitimate compounding thesis. But again yeahhh that’s a patient money game, not a 500,000 strong YOLO brigade from Depok refreshing their Stockbit feed 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Can You Lose On Purpose ?! Ode buat Sobad🌏! I was thrilled when checking this. Mid-Pump, Kurang dari setahun tercatat hampir 500 Ribu tambahan shareholders masuk ke $BUMI. U know every IDX investor of my vintage (2000s) has a Bakrie story tucked somewhere between their first portfolio and their first lesson in humility. 500 Thousand grandfleet! For ground Household di Depok ada 580ribuan jadi ini kaya semua warga di Depok tiba tiba punya tambang Batubara! Diversity Breakdown! What Implied ? Phase Transition : 2008 Peak -IDR 8750 2015 Through - IDR 50 12-month range — 70 to 484. Today — about 210 17.5 Year Journey - to 2026, more than 99 pct drawdown, now on 5 pct Recovery. 500,000 Army Arrived. Early or Terminal? Sedikit telisik; Return saham dr 4 driver: pertumbuhan profit, perubahan multiple, dividen, dilusi saham. last 12 months: in TSR lens ✅ Op. profit ++ YoY , Leverage Operational Mulai Trickle ke Margin ✅ Multiple - Expand as Profit ++ , Overshooting peers industry ✅ Share count stabil - After Big Dillution in Phase 1 Transition ⚠️ Net income ikut Siklikal ASP - Now In Good Cycle Who Switch ? : Back to the question. Someone sold positions to the new 500,000 army. That someone is almost certainly: • Patient money who bought in 2011–2020 darkness, finally taking profit • Creditors-turned-shareholders from debt restructuring • Possible insiders harvesting at strength -So at current price IDR 210 - retrace from 1Yr High the Depok Army (New 500,000) isnt the Crowd Who Won, Its the Crowd that Arrived. But we held the signpost that the Army is Not the Exit Liquidity - its a Barricade Enclaving Real Turnaround in Separation. ROIC > cost of capital, multi-quarter Coal stable at elevated guidance ($60–65/t) New minerals throwing off cash First dividend (Post Quasi) Buying a stock without asking who's selling is gambling, part of the 500,000 army nosedeep YOLOing. A few others is Asking — and answering honestly — at this point its investing. The shareholder count says the easy money is already made. The Multiple Expansion Part - that has been sold. The Faithful though, will rode the TSR driver inversion!

Circles on Circles - Invoke 97-00 Kalo Fintwit mau draw Parallel sekarang ke 97? Coba Mundurin sedikit, ke 95 nya dulu, Mexican Tequila! Moral Hazard impor dari situ, Meksiko tumbang - brady bond backstop. Mata Uang EM di Peg. Capital ngalir pindah ke Asia. 95 Everything is fine

Jakarta vs Everybody! Post Hormuz North Asia Recover, Jakarta Ya Gitu Kasian Deh (Unloved kata FinTwit). MXDU equal-weight global stocks at 12-year premium, MXID Indonesia at 12-year discount. Down + Cheap + Lonely. (Ini masih form MSCI ID yang di distort BREN-CUAN-DSSA Post Rebal Lebih Cheap lagi) di titik mana kira2 Arwah Sir Templeton bangun bilang "Maximum Pessimism!"

The Tyranny Of Benchmark (MSCI ki Angel Lur!) Had a banter with MSCI today (TCW Event - Gatot Subroto, Jakarta) Me : Capital flows because of Index Weight, not Expected Return. Indonesia sits at roughly 0.8 Pct of MSCI EM, "When you froze rebalancing and tightened foreign-inclusion Factors, you de facto co-determined Indonesian monetary policy at the margin. - Bank Indonesia had to defend the rupiah while you re-priced the float. Guys are frontrunning the rebalances and risk premia uptick. So How does MSCI internalize the macroprudential externality of its own methodology?" The MSCI Guy's Answer is Harsh and not pre-cooked : Verbatim "We had no considerations on macro impact in our methodologies, our index users are soverereign wealth funds, employee and pensioners fund, endowment etc, the kind of public investors that we had to protect and so the index has to be investible" (PalmFace) Me : Wise Words eh, *ingan! But to Ponder Further some realities : A world of passives and narratives, global asset allocators used to treat "EM" as tactical bet, on a mining-energy-asset inflationary nexus. A second layer of that a "Country Bet" Less so now, systematically not MSCI EM is now driven by North Asia (SK Taiwan), Riding on the Narratives of AI and Semis supply chain. Means its no longer tactical, its getting more "strategic" with return driven by momentum and less value. The country call itselves discarded, change into sectoral-thematic layer. To the fact on the MSCI EM Weight of Countries-is only a nod to its internal Sector Composition - we, financials - mining is out of party. We became a less than % rounding errors. So what to make of ? Post Reform can we regain our proper weight ? Depends, if the world still define return as is, hardly: but if event-horizon bring us the "Minsky Questions" , Capitalism History Withstanding, the value spread will narrow and Possibly Index Equal Weighted will Beat Index Market Cap Weighted! (cue, some asset allocators already position for such scenario - EM leads DM, Pity Us Excluded). Cuk the Tyranny!

Casemiro and Michael Carrick after Case was subbed off. 🥹🤝🏾🫂

Tiga Tahun #TragediKanjuruhan dan USUT TUNTASNYA belum selesai!

Mulut kejinya seringkali mencaci maki para mujahid, kini dirinya dicaci maki rakyat biasa. Wa iyyaudzubillah.

Yahhh belum ada follow up @TMCPoldaMetro @dishubjakarta

Terimakasih responnya. Sore ini belum ada perubahan. Masih parkir mengambil badan jalan dan bikin macet

Pak @TMCPoldaMetro @dishubjakarta tolong cek jalan salemba dari cikini setah metropole, banyak sekali bajaj dll parkir di badan jalan. Tolong tertibkan pak. Sudah 2 tahun seperti ini. Ada mobil dishub lewat ya lewat aja. Terimakasih

@aingriwehuy Iya sih ini sayang sekali gak lolos, timnas u23 afc 2023 ini memainkan sepakbola terbaik di era Shin. Sepakbola nya paling bagus bahkan dibanding senior

Momen ketika Timnas indonesia kurang 1 langkah gagal menuju ke Olimpiade 2024 🥹 Ketika Coach Shin nangis semua pemain langsung peluk Coach Shin Tae-yong, kekeluargaan seperti ini yang nanti pasti dirindukan pemain😭❤️ Thanks STY❤️ (ig/rikkynugroho_)

@garistengah_id Ah riedl, maen bola sporadis, gol semua hasil kemelut, memimpin timnas aff 2010 penghianat!

Opa Riedl, gaji telat tetep serius pegang timnas yg chaos, didepak. Luis Milla, lagi sayang-sayangnya, ga diperpanjang. Shin Tae-yong dengan segala pencapaiannya dipecat. Kita sudah terbiasa. Rasa cinta ke Timnas Indonesia selalu terjaga. Bukan berarti sakitnya tak terasa 🥹🇮🇩

. . Siapa kah mereka

Remote controlled life saver👍