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US DEBT INTEREST COSTS HIT $1.3 TRILLION, EXCEED MILITARY SPENDING

The other day I posted about nuclear. Today it's a related theme with similarly strong tailwinds, in my view. I recently went aggressively long solar☀️, as I believe it now has a third leg to stand on after a healthy period of consolidation since February. The baseline thesis is simple, and perhaps even "priced in" at this stage. Artificial intelligence (AI) power demand and grid electrification have been building for years. But I do not believe that markets have yet priced in how the Strait of Hormuz disruption is now stacking an energy security (and affordability) re-rating on top of both. Let's review all three factors: • AI power demand is no longer theoretical; hyperscalers have signed at least a dozen large solar deals above 100 megawatts (MW) since the start of 2025, and the International Energy Agency now expects renewables to meet up to half of incremental data center electricity demand through 2030. • Grid electrification keeps broadening the base, with the US Department of Energy projecting 15-20% total electricity demand growth this decade as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and re-shored manufacturing compound on top of data center load. • Both of the above factors have been in play for some time; and then the Iran war struck. Oil has been above $100 for two weeks, the closure has been called the largest oil supply disruption in history, and Tesla already credited high gas prices for its Q1 order backlog. The same logic flows directly into residential solar payback math and into the political urgency around domestic energy independence. Used electric vehicles prices alone provide the signal - demand is skyrocketing. Energy demand is ACUTE and ACCELERATING, and it's important to note also that solar is the fastest new-build resource to meet this demand at scale. Unlike nuclear, which we reviewed the other day, solar has a massive deployment speed advantage whereas nuclear has multiyear time horizons for new projects. Pretty compelling, if you ask me. How I'm playing this: • First Solar $FSLR is the cleanest expression of investment in the manufacturing of solar modules (or panels), with minimal Chinese supply-chain exposure, a major advantage amid tariffs. First Solar is the rare name that captures all three tailwinds without the offsets that hit other solar plays. It is the only US-scale module manufacturer that matters, with a multi-dozen gigawatt (GW) contracted backlog extending through 2030 and reports of direct multi-year supply deals being negotiated with chipmakers and data center operators. • Nextpower $NXT captures the utility-scale tracker buildout for hyperscaler-driven projects. Trackers are what move solar panel rows independently to follow the sun and maximize energy yield. The company is also diversifying with new software solutions, power conversion systems, and other tracker-adjacent offerings that are likely to increase attach rates (the percentage of customers who add on features to tracker purchases) that should rise with project volume and size. • NextEra Energy $NEE is a more diversified holding that gives you the largest US owner of operating renewables with the regulated Florida Power & Light utility, but also the largest developer of renewable energy in the United States. NextEra Energy Resources also captures the data center power purchase agreement (PPA) flow through major agreements with hyperscalers. • Enphase $ENPH is the asymmetric residential play, and it just saw a bit of a pullback that could be good for an entry. High retail electricity rates from the energy crisis spillover meaningfully shorten solar and storage payback periods, which should result in prolonged demand. • And naturally Tesla $TSLA, though I suspect many of you own this for other reasons already. No thesis needed. If you're looking for the diversified expression, the Invesco Solar ETF $TAN is the cleanest single-ticker ETF basket trade, with the caveat that it includes Chinese names that dilute the U.S. exposure, if that matters to you. Depending on your level of conviction, you can get broad exposure to solar via TAN or go more concentrated into the above names (or others) for higher risk, higher reward. I think that even if Hormuz reopens relatively quickly, a strong shockwave is already rippling through the entire global energy demand system, one that will have effects for years to come. Even a temporary extension of the current blockade creates a powerful "never again" narrative, imo, regarding energy chokepoints and foreign energy dependence. As always, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing publicly how I invest. Do your own research and manage your risk.

To even think for one second, that the US admin would allow that a decentral "currency" unit - to become Reserve Currency - and the USD thereby lose its hegemony - and the US Fiscal situation becoming instantaneously unattainable ... is just pure nonsense. Just stop! It is Bubble-chit-chat. And BTC does not behave like "Safe heaven". It behaves like an ultra-Risk Asset. Why would an ultra-Risk Asset, which is outside US admin control become "the credible answer to current global monetary problems?" It will not!

Today's Market Signal Brief: Toplines Markets are trying to thread a very tricky needle today. Inflation came in hotter again yesterday, which has traders walking back hopes for Fed rate cuts and even whispering about possible hikes, yet overall sentiment has actually firmed as stocks grind higher and volatility stays relatively contained. That optimism sits on top of very stretched valuations, with major indexes priced far above historical norms at the same time an energy shock from the Iran war threatens to push oil and headline inflation even higher. The broader economy still looks like it is growing at a modest pace, jobs remain plentiful, and financial conditions are easy, but that mix of pricey markets, sticky inflation, geopolitical risk, and a still skeptical consumer keeps correction risk uncomfortably elevated even as the immediate pressure has eased a bit. Detail Investors right now are in a cautiously optimistic mood, leaning into tech and AI winners like Cisco and Nvidia and bidding the Dow back toward record territory, even as a hot wholesale inflation report and hawkish Fed talk remind everyone that the fight against rising prices is not done. Under the surface, that optimism is reflected in tight credit spreads, normal bond yield curves, and a still subdued volatility backdrop, all of which say traders are more worried about missing upside than about an imminent crash. Valuations remain worrisome, since key metrics such as long term earnings multiples and the ratio of market value to the economy are hovering near past cycle extremes, which means stocks are "priced for perfection" and leave very little margin for disappointment. The real economy is holding up so far, with steady growth, low jobless claims, and ongoing consumer spending, even though surveys show many Americans feel lousy about inflation, gas prices, and headline risks like wars and tariffs. The Iran conflict and the IEA’s warning about oil supply falling short of demand raise the odds of another leg up in energy prices, which could pressure both consumer wallets and Fed policy if it feeds back into broader inflation. At the same time, the Trump-Xi summit has offered a bit of relief around U.S.-China tensions, especially for chipmakers now cleared to sell more into that market, which supports the current tech-led rally. Today's long-awaited Cerebras $CBRS IPO may provide further momentum for continuation of the semiconductor rally, and tech investors will likely be paying close attention to price action today. Put together, markets look resilient in the immediate term but fragile under the surface, with high prices and lingering inflation signaling vulnerability to any negative surprises. For everyday investors, this is a time to respect the uptrend yet be selective, keeping an eye on energy, inflation, and Fed messaging as key swing factors for the next big move.

Reading scores, 3rd graders to 8th graders, 2015 to 2025. This is a national tragedy.

JPMorgan, $JPM, has said investor fear is rising fast, with many clients turning fully bearish on the stock market