Franz Josef
468 posts


@GoldForecast wth happened here? 🙄
USAS was the rising star just a month ago. the numbers published today are bad.
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@trend_bullish nice. big position in my pf and still considering to add more.
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@TaviCosta Wilmer international is the biggest sugar refiner in asia. singapore based. nice dividend too
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Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level.
This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view
Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally.
Similar setups here:
open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

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@Blinklebloop my question is also how to trade it?
i bought wilmar international as the largest sugar refiner in asia.
any other ideas?
the european sugar refiners are shiiiat imo.
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Sugar is just going to lag the spike in energy.
It provides quite a nice hedge, and trades below historical levels. (but you need to account for supply too).
Regardless, sugar will lag, but all the factors are in place for sugar prices to increase:
- Mills switching from Sugar to Ethanol production.
- Fertilizer costs increasing
-Urea is the most common nitrogen fertilizer.
-Countries blocking exports of fertilizer
- Fertilizer plants being bombed
This will decrease sugar supply, and increase the costs to make sugar.

Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___
Second order effects. Fertilizer plants are closing in India because they lack LNG. India is the world second largest sugar producer.
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@KarelMercx congrats. The good thing about PBR is that even a two year flat period is rewarded with a hefty dividend.
i bought last year in spring and never regretted it
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The extra $PBR shares I bought are up 87%.

Karel Mercx@KarelMercx
Bought more #petrobras at $14.60. My position in $PBR has grown from 1.30% to 2.32%
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@TheApeOfGoldST meren energy.
1b mc but pretty sure you‘d like it (since you are already hunting in namibia)
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Im looking to buy 2 #oil stocks, I found my first candidate, trying to get filled as we speak, will share after.
But need a second candidate. Share your number one choice thats between 250-500M mcap. Motivate why.
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@Silver__Santa completely agree. i bought today as well.
still 30% dry powder. the global setting and the ridiculous prices of some miners are too tempting.
still keeping / adding oil and gas as well.
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Some are asking me if they need to sell their #GOLD and #SILVER. Let me put it this way. The crisis we will be facing will be a combination of:
1/ 1973 - Oil Shock - Yom Kippur
2/ 2008 - Financial Shock - Banks
3/ 2019 - Supply Shock - Covid19
In all 3 cases Gold and Silver did very well the years that followed. I have many reasons to believe that it will not be any different this time. That's the thesis. Hold the fort.
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Franz Josef retweetledi

@mfwarder after the initial spike the next push will be the quarterly report of coal miners.
when they report massive profits the next leg up is likely to come.
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Have been getting some questions why thermal #coal isn’t running more…well, remember its March and energy demand fades through the beginning of summer.
So think about that, and then realize that prices *aren’t going down* either.
This is a new baseline. #CoalTwitter
Arrakis Global@ArrakisGlobal
$GLEN $CNR bloomberg.com/news/articles/… For those of us that have been following coal for years, this is the opportunity. Thermal coal returns are like ketchup out the bottle... this is the time. @YellowLabLife @TraderPamplona @mfwarder
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@JaguarAnalytics Agreed! Thungela will be also one of the highfliers
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@Silver__Santa i lost money with the best miners for years just because there was no bull market.
buying in a bear market is a recipe for disaster in my book.
i keep core positions, sell speculative bets, buy energy stock. watch gilf.
cash ready to pull the trigger on pm.
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@cannibalstocks The worries with australian coal producers is the pending fuel crisis in australia.
They can’t ship the coal out of australia if the lights go out on diesel deliveries.
I still hold massive NHC shares. But not adding.
if strait of hormus is clear, they will also crash.
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If Whitehaven can sustain around $55 per tonne in profit margin, the math becomes almost absurd.
And this is not heroic. Add the thermal portfolio and a reasonable liquidation value lands in the $60B to $70B range over time, versus a market cap a little above $5B.
Crazy. But it is coal, you know. It is cheap. Nobody loves coal.
Full Write-up: cannibalstocks.substack.com/p/whitehaven-c…
$WHC
$WHITF

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@ArrakisGlobal Thungela Resources is the best play in my opinion at the moment.
i am already loaded since last summer.
Therefore now i bought New Hope Coal after the war broke out.
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