Davy

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Davy

Davy

@Blinklebloop

Archetype-Research 1. Small-cap AI enablers 2. Datacenter value chains 3. Undercovered small-caps 4. Robotics (coming soon)

Plugged In Katılım Eylül 2021
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
I have added my own bit on the valuation side of $SOI I think its an extremely compelling investment. EV/EBITD currently at 6.5X !!! Exposure to the photonics theme at a fraction of the price, in a company with a near monopoly to the tech. This will be a story for next year and beyond.
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Davy@Blinklebloop

This is a brilliant find by Jason. SOITEC, trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.5~ Near monopoly on the Smart-Cut technology used to make SOI wafers- which are used to make PICs, which are used to make transceivers (think $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR). It’s not often you get exposure like this in a bombed out industry. I have added my piece on the valuation, which I think is highly compelling. Nice work Jason! Glad I started reading your work! jasonschips.substack.com/p/the-soitec-s…

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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
@fedex774 It’s in a cyclical industry, it’s pretty bottomed out now
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
It's like anything that touches optics turns to gold
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Davy@Blinklebloop

@zephyr_z9 There are also players like PVA TePla that make “Kronos” VGF system (high-pressure variant for InP). Picks and shovels. AIXA looks better though. More moaty

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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Where PVA Tepla sits in the Optics supply chain: it sits after deposition or epitaxy and during chip processing, where coating thickness, layer uniformity, and hidden defects have to be measured before devices move into packaging. So PVA is not the laser or transceiver itself. It is the inspection layer that helps make sure those optical and semiconductor parts actually work. Earnings Announcement: Order intake rose 77.7% to €267.6m, book-to-bill was 1.10, and 41% of group orders came from metrology. 41% of group orders from metrology is massive given the fact that PVA TePla has historically been a much more diversified equipment company, with a larger legacy exposure to materials and process tools rather than metrology alone. metrology is a higher-margin business. The business doesn't have the torque that a company like $Soitec or $TSEM does. I do expect it to continue to perform though, as the business becomes more metrology-weighted, with higher margins, and as we see the optics ramp progress.
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Davy@Blinklebloop

It's like anything that touches optics turns to gold

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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Thakral is a Singapore-listed holdco. Two engines: investments and Lifestyle. Investments = GemLife, Osaka property, and India real estate. Lifestyle = beauty, fragrance, drones, and AV distribution across Asia. Operating story is still good. FY25 Lifestyle revenue rose 29% to S$352.1m. Management says Lifestyle can grow ~25% in FY26. Headline profit was flattered. FY25 net profit hit S$170.9m, but included S$173.8m of IPO revaluation gains. So the real story is operating growth, not the statutory profit line. There is also longer-dated upside from India. Thakral is buying more of TIL, taking its stake to 95.28% if approved. At today’s price, it is ~4.4x trailing EV/EBITDA. On a simple FY26 bridge, it is closer to ~3.5x forward EV/EBITDA.
Davy@Blinklebloop

This is still so undervalued.

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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Going to be in Shenzhen in April. Would love to meet up with any of my followers there 🫡
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Maius
Maius@MaiusPartners·
@jaysyoon Lumentum is always the next Lumentum (until the Chinese figure out how to mass manufacture it at 1/3 of the price)
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Jay Yoon
Jay Yoon@jaysyoon·
Whatever you do, DO NOT swap your $LITE position for any of the names in the Citrini piece
lisasufanclub@lisasufanclub

if anyone wants Lumentum $LITE management talk at OFC from earlier today, DM me where to email it and I'll send it's amazing: – sold out through 2027 – increasing InP output by 50% (up from 40%). have industry's largest InP capacity ❗️ – demand still growing faster (25% to 30%) than supply even after expanding it by 50% – Lumentum is "one of the very few companies" that's showing 400G per lane optical transceivers❗️ – Lumentum is "in the lead pack" right now delivering 1.6T – Lumentum, which doesn't really want to do transceivers cause it's lower margins compared to other products, is actually able to raise margins for transceivers now❗️ – 1.6T shipments with improved margins starting this summer – yesterday Lumentum closed a new multi-year, multi-billion-dollar agreement for OCS ‼️ – UHP lasers (for CPO scale out) in San Jose fab ramping well and already shipping – earlier today Lumentum completed the acquisition of its fifth InP fab (a Qorvo fab in North Carolina). expect to be shipping out of this fifth fab by 2028 ‼️ – currently the only one supplier CPO scale out to Nvidia – shipping CPO scale up (which is 10x bigger than CPO scale out) starting second half of 2027. this is "pure incremental upside" since it's taking it from copper and much more

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Moody
Moody@MoodyWriter13·
Started my Substack in 2026. Top performers from 7 published articles: Furuya Metal +91% $SOI Soitec +270% $SIVE Sivers +100% Didn’t expect this so fast. The Substack is free. The best things in life are free. @fwriter?utm_medium=ios" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@fwriter?utm_m…
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
This is still so undervalued.
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Time to seriously get ahead of Robotics before the AHA moment. Where are the bottlenecks friends?
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Glad to hear! Yeah, there's so many different names since photonics TAM for AI is massive. You can definitely make an ETF of stuff like $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR, and the 20+ other companies. Then probably sit back and chill. But... I personally like to try and pick a few of the highest upside winners personally.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet: $SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers) $TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry $NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO $HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays $POET - Optical Interposers $SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu - Substrates $FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink - Optical Packaging and Assembly $MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs $LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials. $GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers $FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement $BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others. Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit? If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment. The alpha is capturing the rotation: From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO. Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles. But that are in the next. Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples. Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI. But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck. The capital rotation is inevitable.
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
$4975.T JCU Corp I’ve been saying this in subscriber chat about JCU Corp since late Jan: JCU does have AI exposure through via-fill chemicals, but ~80% of its via-fill business is still tied to high-end smartphone PCBs. This is important because if memory shortages continue, consumers may delay phone upgrades, which could pressure smartphone PCB demand. But once the shortage eases, demand could snap back hard. But right now- the medium term is risk-off for JCU. So the real issue is revenue mix: Can weakness in smartphone PCB demand and which JCU does not explicitly disclose as a line item be offset by growth in AI-related package substrates? We can look at the Geo split here for help- China revenue looks mostly tied to smartphone PCBs. Taiwan looks much more levered to datacenter / AI demand.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

The global smartphone market will contract 12.9% in 2026 because of the memory chip shortage," per BBG

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Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst·
If for some reason any of you are bearish CPO or advanced optics, here is my book. Go invert it. The only long that has zero optics exposure is Intel. Go short all of my other longs in size. I dare you.
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Citrini bashed $AAOI Amazing how much influence he has. I’m going to wait for it to get cheap and probably take a bite. It’s already cheap on forward numbers but that assumes management executes. The demand is already there. Would be nice to grab some lower
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

$AAOI files for another $250 million USD ATM, upping the amount to $500 million. The positive note is: $AAOI has already finished their first ATM. Markets absorbed $250 million in selling pressure (likely ~$100 before the stock went to $120) and the stock increased anyway. “The amendment states that 2,476,307 shares have been sold for gross proceeds of approximately $249,999,983 under the sales agreement as of March 12, 2026” However, I’m extremely bearish when it comes to excessive ATMs for any company like $IREN or $POET, and it’s not inclusive to $AAOI. $500 million for capacity expansion is likely accretive compared to other $6 billion ATMs if people want to wait it out. That being said, not happy about it and if they needed $500 million, should have done it from the start.

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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
@TeviYek His article released a bunch of optics stuff, most of them went up after, AAOI went down…
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Tevi Yek
Tevi Yek@TeviYek·
@Blinklebloop all market is down not only AAOI, so what is relation it with citrini?
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everyonehatespoetry
everyonehatespoetry@everyonehatesp1·
Wow Jensen thank you so much for this Conrad x NVIDIA partnership!
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
$SOI Soitec and NSIG to agree extension of licensing framework. "have agreed to a 10-year extension". They are most likely referring to Smart Cut for SOI Wafers. Shanghai-based National Silicon Industry Group Co., Ltd. (688126.SH) probably generates around 8-15% of its revenue through SOI Wafers through its Xin’ao Subsidiary. But it is operating at a loss. Still $SOI trades at EV/EBITDA of ~7 and then you get pureplay expose to 688126.SH via a royalty stream. And $SOI is far more pure-play exposure to SOI Wafers compared to Shin Etsu or 688126.SH. I am honestly very bullish $SOI 2-3 years out. This is a value-bros dream. The business has a moat, bombed out, and is exposed to a torrent spending theme. Time will tell, and there is always risk involved, but this is the kind of risk I will take everytime.
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
US claims it allows Iranian oil tankers to transit Hormuz to maintain global supply. Well, they were flowing freely without US permission anyway despite the US sanctions ...
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Davy
Davy@Blinklebloop·
Didn't adjust stock price in my spreadsheet. Wow can't believe its already up 30%! I don't get 10+ though. LTM EBITDA: ~€264m NET DEBT: €145m EV: €2.363bn (€2.218bn MC + 145m) EV/EBITDA = ~9 Still cheap. What EV/EBITDA should you attach to a monopoly-like, royalty stream play associated with one of the strongest bottlenecks ever?
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GÖRDES
GÖRDES@FrancJrG·
@Blinklebloop How are you getting an EV/EBITDA of 7? With 2B/200M, it’s actually more like 10+ right now.
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Keşfet

@fedex774 @MaiusPartners @jaysyoon @FelixSchreibe13 @JapanDeepValue1 @aleabitoreddit @PhotonCap @insane_analyst