Spence Bay
483 posts

Spence Bay
@BaySpence
Halfway through my 6th Decade enthusiastically following Thoroughbred Racing. Hoping it’s decline stops before it’s too late!
Parts Unknown Katılım Mart 2021
150 Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler

@ToddF67 @rocknrollofall You had to pop on to say that instead of choosing silence?
English

@Intheshadows_23 @TaraBull Do you want to see the Epstein Files? would you like to see the the criminals who enabled him and raped adolescents prosecuted? It has nothing to do with MAGA does it.
English

@Rainmaker1973 Did the Roadrunner drop an anvil on this person's face, damn!
English

‡
Memories of a Nice Score, and an Old Friend
While rummaging through a box of disparate stuff, I happened to stumble across a NYRA receipt related to a rather juicy pick-4 score that I made ~20 years ago. At first it didn't ring any particular bells, but thanks to Equibase's archives, I was able to piece together what led to the wager.
It was the early pick-4 on July 8th, and the bookend races were contested over the Belmont turf courses. As a fairly high percentage of my wagering profits tended to flow from grass races, that made sense.
1⃣ The first leg was an 8.5f. MSW race for F&M, won by the second-favorite Wild Hoots, and by a scant nose over the favorite, Star Dixie. Interestingly, the winner didn't improve much further on turf, but ended up winning and placing in stakes on dirt, when switched back to that surface. I don't have a clear memory of my ticket construction, but am fairly certain that I spread out in that race.
2⃣ The second leg was a mile MSW for F&M on dirt, and the result was similarly close, but much more important to the outcome of my wager. A 22/1 shot named Street Bird led throughout, and barely hung on to defeat the 4.70/1 third-favorite. Looking over the winner's form, I'm sure that I didn't particularly like her, and, perhaps being skeptical of the favorites, I must have spread out in that race as well.
3⃣ The third leg was the type of race that I almost never bet, unless it is part of a sequential wager. It was a $35k Maiden-claiming NY-bred race, contested over a mile on dirt. It was won by the 5th favorite (6.60/1), Spiritual Call, trained by Stan Hough. He won just one more race over his subsequent 18 starts, underscoring why such races rarely appeal to me.
4⃣ The fourth and final leg was the key, pun intended. It was a Listed stakes run over the inner turf course, and featured one of my favorite type of set-ups. I not only had a strong preference for a particular horse, but was also skeptical of the favorite. The latter was a horse called Out of Gwedda, which had, as Andy Serling likes to say, somewhat "dressed up" form. He had won the Tremont at Belmont at two, and had placed in the Spectacular Bid and Hutcheson at Gulfstrearm early in the (then) current season. His connections had tried, unsuccessfully, to stretch him out in stakes at Keeneland and Churchill.
Returned to Belmont, he dropped back into allowance company, and returned to sprinting, but still finished unplaced. Not long after, in a 7f. dirt race originally scheduled for turf, he woke up with a fast (1:21.25; 106 EQB figure) win.
For some odd reason, though, despite that sharp performance, and that all of his previous races had been run over dirt, his connections decided to try him in the subject Listed turf race. My skepticism was partly based on Out of Gwedda being by Out of Place, a sire that was rarely associated with turf horses. He also tended to get precocious types, which didn't always improve much at three. The final piece of the puzzle was that he was being wheeled back just 10 days after that breakthrough, career fastest effort. So I was quite happy to bet against him.
Which brings us to my single. English Colony was bred by Will Farish in England. He was by the top miler Rock of Gibralter, out of the mare Jemima. He was being trained by my good, late friend Angel Penna Jr., who had also trained his dam (a talented turf runner). Both English Colony and his dam were owned by Will Farish and Lazy F Ranch. The latter is known best for Martha F. Gerry's ownership of Forego, and note that the "F" stood for Farish.
English Colony had made an inauspicious career debut in January at Gulfstream, finishing 10th of 12 in a 9f. MSW race on turf. Off for nearly two months, he was shorted up to 5f. on turf, and, despite encountering traffic on the turn, won going away be almost 4 lengths. Those two races were all that most bettors had to go on (see the attached PPs), but I knew that the ridgeling was training very well, and that the stable held him in some regard. So, given that he was well-bred, underexposed, and coming up to the race in fine fettle, I was happy to key him in the last leg of the pick-4, and hope that I might get lucky, and gain leverage in one of the earlier races.
In the race itself, there was barely an anxious moment. English Colony forced the pace, took over when asked, and held a decent sprinter called Quietly Mine safe by a couple of lengths. Out of Gwedda rallied belatedly to finish third, and never raced on the turf again through 21 subsequent starts.
***
Looking back on the experience now, I'd make the following points.
• while it is easy to "like" a horse in a given race, when there is also a vulnerable favorite, more serious attention, possibly leading to a larger investment, is warranted
• it is particularly gratifying and exciting to cap a successful sequential wager with a winning "single" in the final leg
• even if one is not typically comfortable with a certain type of race (e.g. state-bred, mdn-claiming, etc.), it should not prevent the consideration of a "spread" play in a horizontal wager, given sufficient incentive, and confidence in the other legs
• English Colony went on to win two more minor stakes over a truncated career; he was only beaten once sprinting on turf (5/6), and had an excuse that day
• $28k is the equivalent of $44k in today's debased dollars!
• I miss Angel Penna, Jr.



English

@TheKevinDalton I wonder if anyone from the the GOP has anything similar going on? Norah Weinstein isn’t blood like some of the drone companies and crypto might actually be first family relatives. When it comes to grift, there’s so much on both sides of the aisle, and you know it. True?
English

Gavin Newsom just announced a shiny new taxpayer funded program giving free diapers to newborns leaving California hospitals and his administration is partnering with Baby2Baby with almost $20 MILLION in state funds to manufacture them.
I’m sure it’s a total coincidence that one of Baby2Baby’s Co-CEOs, Norah Weinstein, sits on the board of Gavin Newsom’s wife’s California Partners Project.
There is nothing that Gavin Newsom can’t grift.
English

@sedonna1111 @larry_kudlow @SecScottBessent We’ll find out shortly. If a case is brought and he’s found guilty, you’ll be right, innocent no. If A case isn’t brought, Powell will be right. I don’t think Powell had anything to do with the overrun, and it was all politically motivated. We’ll see how it plays out.
English

@BaySpence @larry_kudlow @SecScottBessent He’s turned into a political tool. Not independent. And with a $2 billion! overrun- proven incompetent or even corrupt. That is why he is got to go now!
English
Here’s @SecScottBessent on Jay Powell’s decision to remain on the Fed board: “Violation of all Federal Reserve norms… it is an insult to Kevin Warsh, Miki Bowman, and Chris Waller.”
English

@JamesTate121 @SheronWilkie Should be Time Magazine Man of the year. The real version, not the framed Fake version across the golf courses. Let Jay tutor all the cowards who don’t stand up.
English

@SheronWilkie @ImBreckWorsham But they weighed Tax Break vs Mom’s Legacy and clearly went to the money. Dispicable fucking family
English

@ImBreckWorsham How can her children allow this ?
Says so much more about them than it does about Trump.
English

@reredevaux @52ShadesOfHay @TheNYRA First I’ve heard of it. Awful. Carmen was great for many years then Alysse didn’t miss a beat. Her replacement is?
English

@BaySpence @52ShadesOfHay @TheNYRA No she was fired after she busted her ass that weekend last summer.
English

I want to give a shout out to @TheNYRA for unceremoniously firing my best friend (who worked there for 16 years)- now she gets to do fun things like come support me at the Derby.

English

@Mhenderson550 @firsttohearit He should be Time Magazine Man of the Year. Takes a lot of courage to do that. The 100 plus GOP cowards should take his cue.
English

@reredevaux @52ShadesOfHay @TheNYRA I’m confused by The Whitney. So she’s been fired but staying till the Whitney?
English




















