Quang

@Dcpcooks speed of increase matters, not the level itself

Historically, 5% Long Bond Yields Often Coincide With Equity Stress — But Not Always Immediately There’s a loose but recurring correlation: Rising long-end yields compress equity multiples (not happening) Especially growth/tech duration trades (not happening) Housing and credit eventually weaken (not happening sans middle markets and PC) Fiscal interest expense accelerates (happening) You saw versions of this in: 1987 1994 2000 2007 2022 But timing matters. Duh Interestingly, several recent episodes above 5% in the 30-year did not persist, and buying duration near 5% often worked tactically over the last few years. Is it different this time? I may need to write a bit more on this Carry on

Like clockwork. And can you imagine what happens when people realize China tech is AI and it is dirt cheap? $BABA

@0xNairolf for now

you can instantly tell when a website was vibecoded like really instantly

$BABA last time accumulation cycle from local low to a breakout was 50 days and it ended with earnings report. This cycle's report is on May 13th and if it breaks out of it will be 51 days.

@Peoplewish So be in a bull market basically

100% annual account growth = • 10% position sizing • 1 trade per day on average • 33% win rate • 10% average win • 0.50% average loss • 25-day average hold on winners • 1-day hold on losers

@mnskymoment @infinummike 100% Как реальный бизнес скажу что два последних ката никак не отразилось на кредитной ставке - банки закладывают риски и не снижают ее. Налоговая нагрузка пиздец стала. Так что хоть 5% снижение - бизнесу особо не поможет с таким лагом

@infinummike а ты думаешь 100 бп поможет? я думаю нет, накопленная реальная ставка все равно высокая за последние 12 месяцев + хайк в налогах + сентимент бизнеса и потребителя.

и так все уже высказались по поводу своего прогноза по заседанию ЦБ, поэтому мы становимся как обычно аутсайдерами и прогнозируем снижение на 75 бп, что кмк будет политическим компромиссом между всеми вариантами и обстоятельствами. запаса прочности по реальной ставке хватает

$baba cooling off from overbought

@mnskymoment Шортистов или лонгустов? )

вечный мем давайте уже маржинколы в валюте. ждем!

Pain trade is up

@yuriymatso You sure are subjective for a systematic guy. No wonder you stopped discretionary

This type of a bullish divergence often leads to a price reversal.

$BTC is in latest accumulation phase and with risk back on the menu it really looks ready to go.

@mnskymoment а как бумагой заправить бензоколонки?

если азиатам/австралийцам нужна нефть, почему они не хеджат поставки покупкой бумажных баррелей с огромным дисконтом к физике?

@investingluc You’re referring to the Wyckoff accumulation To confirm it needs selling climax with capitulation volume. Yet to see it

Back to the chalkboard this morning. In a strong downtrend (like we've been in), it’s usually better to wait for a failed breakdown…not chase the random strength/green days. Most get caught adding to losers on the way down...but then a structure forms and they finally feel “safe". Causing the average joe trader to size up and use the low of that structure as their stoploss...and that’s when the lows get taken + stops get run. The reaction off the prior low tells the whole story (and it's what I'm watching right now): 1) *if* price flushes but can’t bounce...bears/trend still in control 2) *if* we see stops trigger, big volume, panic, prior lows break…but then a seemingly instant recovery/bounce back over the prior low level Number 2^ is the one you care about. Because now you’ve got: > clear prior low (now recovered) to use as risk > trapped sellers + shorts caught in a bad spot > multiple breakout spots overhead ...AND a shift in character. Potential $SPY scenario I'm seeing.

@investingluc Most people are adrenaline gamblers, not traders. Guilty of being one myself in the past.

I sit down at my desk every morning and ask myself one question, but it's never about direction (up or down)...it's always about involvement. Never: "hey luc, are you thinking we go up or down today?" Always: "hey luc, is the current environment worth getting involved in?" Selectivity > activity I'm fine being the most boring account on here. So with Trump addressing the nation tonight at 9pm to give “an important update on Iran", i'm fine with staying mostly on the sidelines during cash session. Basically a fed day type environment (imo)...chop, fake-outs, no clean direction, lack of trend. Easy to get baited into overtrading. Stay boring team.

@investingluc Same here. Business guy Want to dip my toes into systemic trading

I'm a business guy. Non-technical. Never coded. Don't have a github. Always thought "full stack" meant pancakes. But it's objectively absurd what I can do with AI...tried them all (claude, gemini, openclaw). But perplexity Computer is on another level right now. Not even exaggerating…this month alone I: > rebuilt the Fear & Greed index > created a "should I be trading?" dashboard > made a tool to track unusual insider activity Couple short prompts I use daily: morning - "scan overnight global news, macro data, and major company headlines before today’s US session, plus any major risk events on the calendar." midday - "given today’s macro backdrop + price action, identify the current environment (trend, chop, risk-on/off), today’s leaders/laggards, and any sector rotation." at close - "review today’s global, macro, and single-stock action and tell me: which themes gained/lost momentum, what led/lagged into the close, + main ideas for tomorrow." ^ gives me a clear read on the market...so I can focus on making better trading decisions.

Such a bearish sentiment. You'd hate to see people having to chase longs here. $spx $es $spy

@FCNightingale @TradetheMatrix1 It’s called bankruptcy

Swiss lender UBS has suspended withdrawals from its $469 million Euroinvest real ​estate fund for up to three years citing ‌insufficient liquidity. "In this challenging market environment, UBS Real Estate GmbH ​has taken the decision to suspend redemptions at ​this time to ensure the protection of all ⁠our investors' interests," the bank said in a statement. h/t @wstpacglenn -Sri Lanka Guardian #commercialrealestate slguardian.org/ubs-freezes-e4…

@ZeeContrarian1 Agree. We got back to levels where the consolidation was. Why are you not using options though?

Time to get some Gold $GC. Portfolio allocation: 20% via gold futures. Fundamentals are strong. We got a healthy pullback, and now it’s clear why it happened.

@blondesnmoney Iran running the same playbook as China. Denying everything playing hardball