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tradethematrix.net
Blog content on topic of trading, financial markets and macro.
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Trade_the_Matrix
20.4K posts
Trade_the_Matrix
@TradetheMatrix1
Trader (equities, FX, crypto). Behavior specialist. To join Matrix trading community: https://t.co/gggoC51BqD
Katılım Temmuz 2019
117 Takip Edilen30.6K Takipçiler
Someone call Michael Burry?
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
JPMORGAN & GOLDMAN OFFER HEDGE FUNDS WAY TO SHORT PRIVATE CREDIT
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Denied for now looks like.
Trade_the_Matrix@TradetheMatrix1
US to implement #oil export ban. Major move higher in #oil, #natgas, and other resources coming. Watch $BATL squeezing again. "All for one, and one for all" the musketeers saying is about to be globally redone: "All for none, and one for themselves".
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@tydh1a They denied it just today. I was too quick to jump the gun, my bad.
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#Bitcoin looking for 60k or under next. Swing short. Once SPY starts rolling it should go with it.
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@Philly1togo This one for later in autumn time perhaps
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$OXY higher and higher, still holding full swing since early February
Trade_the_Matrix@TradetheMatrix1
50 and well above now $OXY Imagine not being long
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Trade_the_Matrix retweetledi
JUST IN: 🇪🇬 Egypt orders shops and restaurants to close by 9:00 PM due to the energy crisis caused by US-Israeli war with Iran.
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How many banks have loans to agricultural firms which create profitable margins due to having fertilizers but now won't have them due to Qatars LNG going offline? So those agri firms could turn negative or go default. And banks have exposure to them.
How many businesses need gas to heat their accommodations but might not get gas and will suffer revenue declines in winter later this year (EU). And might not be able to repay loans or mortgage anymore because revenue isnt coming in.
How many small scale businesses in Asia are heavily transportation tied but with gasoline shortages at pumps they simply won't be able to move 8/10 times, and their revenues plunge. And so might loan repayment abilities.
How many large scale banks gave loans to MidEast companies that were energy exporters but now had infrastructure destroyed and won't be able to repay the loans. So the banks will have write downs and will need to seek for that liquidity (forcefully) elsewhere.
How many banks will face balance sheet declines because they have large exposures to real estate market which is likely to decline globally?
And so forth...its cascade. Banks could trigger emergency call-in actions because liquidity will suffer everywhere. If you have big mortgage or credit the actions to take might be now if still possible.
#oil #financial #crisis
Trade_the_Matrix@TradetheMatrix1
Could we get banks calling in loans to same or bigger extent as in 2008? I think its probability of that happening. Many global sources reporting liquidity issues in banking sector.
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Could we get banks calling in loans to same or bigger extent as in 2008? I think its probability of that happening. Many global sources reporting liquidity issues in banking sector.
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If you havent shifted portfolio yet and fire-sold when timing was optimal then you will be do doing that in few months at much lower prices likely (as people often do).
Trade_the_Matrix@TradetheMatrix1
2026 portfolio reconstruction: Out of software/AI/biotechs into shipping/oil/resources/dollar. Assuming Hormuz gets blocked. If not this is no go.
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Looks like people in institutional space are waking up.
Kalshi@Kalshi
JUST IN: Bank Of America says "big lows" coming to the stock market
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Qatars major LNG field destroyed today, should see natgas rally over next two days.
Remember that markets still think this conflict is about Hormuz, while in reality its about infrastructure already (perma damage).
Trade_the_Matrix@TradetheMatrix1
This situation isnt about Hormuz only. Its about targeted strikes on oil infrastrcture between all involved MidEast countries. Exactly what is happening between Russia and Ukraine (oil refineries getting blown up) can replicate here with tons of refineries and oil wells going offline. None of which is priced in. So what good is reopening of Hormuz later if infrastructure is destroyed? Most experts and commentators are focused on Hormuz issue while the unknown card that has potential to keep prices lifted on energy is infrastructure going offline. The chances for that happening is high because Iran launched counter attack on so many countries at once. If you go by the history whenever a nation did that the consequence was significant damage to its internal and neighbour's countries infrastructure over proponged conflict. Again nothing is certain, but data suggests for now this is not taken into account. #oil #energy
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@TradetheMatrix1 I also think there is a massive difference in fighting the mullahs in Afghanistan with their opium fields in the north, vs the ayatollahs who control the world's energy supply.
Apples and Oranges imo
It is always about energy.
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In two months 2/3rd of global economy will come to standstill as gas shortages hit emerging and some developed economies.
How does this not end in global depression 1932 style i am not sure...i hope there is some surprise positive variable that shows up by miracle.
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