BeaconLayer Podcast

The Ethereum L2 Squeeze Much will come in the wake of Vitalik's declaration that "the original vision of L2s... no longer makes sense." With the L1 scaling and blockspace now an abundant commodity, L2s and Alt-EVM chains must differentiate or get squeezed out 👇 ~~ Analysis by @punk7954 ~~ Last month, Vitalik Buterin sparked debate with a blog post stating that "the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense." Days later, he sharpened the message: > "If you make an EVM chain without an optimistic bridge to Ethereum (aka an alt L1), that's even worse. We don't friggin need more copypasta EVM chains, and we definitely don't need even more L1s. L1 is scaling and is going to bring lots of EVM blockspace." As L1 scales, it becomes cheaper and more capable. Mainnet is becoming the blockchain that L2s aspired to become, without the complexities of L2 designs. This forces L2s and Alt-EVM L1s to differentiate or get squeezed out. The Squeeze The pressure has been building for months. L2 and Alt-EVM L1 tokens are down 80-90% from highs, with adoption plateauing once airdrops ended. Last week Base announced it's leaving Optimism's Superchain, taking 97% of the collective's real economic value with it. The rationale: ship faster, reduce dependencies, and keep fees in-house. Beyond recalibration, chains face revenue pressures as the industry matures. Blockspace is no longer scarce. Too many chains compete for users, turning differentiation into a commodity. Meanwhile, revenue-generating chains like Hyperliquid set a new standard, proving sustainable economics matter more than narrative. The "gas fee only" model is breaking down. Chains must find a niche justifying their existence off Mainnet and generate revenue to sustain themselves. How Chains Are Responding While Vitalik's post served as a messaging wakeup call, months of rough metrics had already led EVM L1s and Ethereum L2s to seek deeper differentiation. > Polygon: The Payments Stack. Even before Vitalik's post, Polygon pivoted to become a "revenue-generating blockchain company." In January, @0xPolygon Labs announced $250M in acquisitions: Coinme (payments firm with money transmitter licenses) and Sequence (wallet infrastructure). These anchor the forthcoming "Open Money Stack," a framework for regulated stablecoin payments launching later this year. Stablecoins see the most real-world adoption globally. USDC in Polymarket drives significant Polygon activity. Stablecoin transactions on Polygon outpace all other L2s, gaining speed from these acquisitions, prediction market growth, and the October 2025 Rio upgrade, which overhauled the chain's architecture for payment-specific performance. Polygon hasn't explicitly tied this pivot to POL token value accrual yet, but the strategic direction is clear. > Sonic: Vertical Integration. Alt-EVM L1 @SonicLabs takes a different approach. In their [early February post, Sonic announced it's abandoning the "gas fee only" model entirely. With blockspace commoditized, gas fees no longer sustain chains. Sonic's solution: build and acquire core DeFi products—trading infrastructure, lending, liquidity provision, stablecoins, staking—to operate in-house. Revenue flows directly back to the S token rather than external apps. Base serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the dangers of relying on external parties to generate chain value. Unlike Polygon, Sonic explicitly addresses token value accrual. Buybacks will only come when real protocol revenue develops from these integrated solutions. The sequencing matters. Optimism announced last month they'd allocate 50% of Superchain revenue to token buybacks, then their primary revenue vehicle left. What Comes Next @VitalikButerin by reiterating that existing L2s and EVM chains can bring new features to the table: Privacy (@aztecnetwork). App-specific efficiency. Ultra-low latency. Expect chains to respond in three ways: > Alt-L1s → Rollups. Some may follow Celo's path from last cycle, converting into rollups and trading sovereignty for tighter Ethereum alignment. > Acquisitions. Well-capitalized chains will pursue acquisitions to accelerate pivots, as Polygon has done and Sonic suggests it will. > Verticalization. More chains will pick a specific category and build infrastructure to own it. We'll likely see buyback talk, but hopefully as a secondary priority. Chains announcing buybacks before making adjustments put the cart before the horse. The market will punish them if they lack revenue to support it. The era of "we do everything" L2s is ending. What replaces it looks like Polygon's payments focus or Sonic's vertical integration: chains that identify their category, build revenue around it, and earn the right to reward holders. It's a step in the right direction, but will cause pain.

“DA layers really differ across three dimensions: performance, programmability, and AI-native design — because on-chain AI can’t operate in a world measured in mere megabytes per second.” @sachimiyasaki catches up with @michaelh_0g, Founder of @0G_labs, to break down how 0G compares with Celestia, Avail, and EigenDA: why throughput needs to increase by orders of magnitude, how to move beyond the broadcast bottleneck, and why a decentralized storage network is essential for ultra-fast data ingestion and retrieval.

Really enjoyed my conversation today with @michaelh_0g from @0G_labs. We spoke about his background, what first pulled him deeper into technology, how that developed into a broader Web3 thesis, and the story behind building 0G. It was a meaningful conversation with a lot of depth, clarity, and real perspective. Grateful to Michael for the time and openness. And special thanks to the @BeaconLayer team, as well as to @SachiMiyasaki and @DikshaWells, for making it all possible.

“After moving from Berlin to Silicon Valley, I found myself bored at a new school — so I started spending time at my dad’s SAP Lab: fast internet, endless reading, and the beginning of my love for technology.” Our host @kenzimori sits down with @michaelh_0g (@0G_labs) to trace his origin story — from early curiosity and a growing obsession with tech to his path into Web3, and ultimately, the founding of his company.

“Back in 2016–17, crypto felt like a true idea factory — hundreds of experiments, zero gatekeeping, and pure creative energy.” Our host @dikshawells sits down with @michaelh_0g, Founder of @0G_labs, to explore one of the most exciting parts of building in Web3: a culture shaped by experimentation first. They also dive into how tokenization creates new ways to fund and sustain projects — including open-source work — beyond the limits of the traditional Web2 business model.

In crypto, liquidity dominates—shaping token prices, staking dynamics, and beyond. Now, following DTCC's recent SEC approval for federally compliant tokenization services, institutional-scale real-world asset (RWA) distribution onchain is poised to accelerate. Where will they go? Where the liquidity is... 👇 ~~ Analysis by @kenzimori ~~ DTCC's Requirements In its no-action request to the SEC, the DTCC lays out the technical requirements for key components of tokenization systems, including the underlying blockchain and supporting token-tracking software. This letter forms the basis for the SEC's no-action exemption, and specifies that any systems used to perform key functions of the tokenization service must comply with the DTCC's internal "Tier 2" systems requirements. Among other things, this criteria will require critical systems components to have "the ability to operate from a primary and a secondary location, a maximum four-hour recovery time objective, a maximum two minutes of data loss from an outage, and annual out-of-region disaster recovery and resumption testing." While the DTCC is opting to remain tech-neutral, it will not forcibly prescribe a particular blockchain or tokenization protocol. Eligible solution combinations must support compliance controls and achieve a Tier 2 systems rating. Liquidity Dominates The DTCC processed $3.8Q (quadrillion) of securities transactions in 2024. It is the highest value financial processor in the world and surpassed $100T in assets under custody this summer. If one was asked to identify the single most important lynchpin in the global financial system, "DTCC" would be a safe answer. Assuming superior liquidity is bound to win out in tokenization markets, the DTCC's near-limitless, preexisting supply of assets arms it with a durable advantage that should ensure everlasting dominance in tokenized securities markets. Which Chain Wins? Just as the DTCC is destined to become the dominant tokenization service by virtue of its enormous scale, liquidity dynamics dictate that a single blockchain will inevitably become the default choice for DTCC-sponsored tokenization offerings. Given the DTCC's technical requirements, several candidates can likely already be dismissed: @solana — Extended network outages over four hours are incompatible with the DTCC's uptime requirements. Solana has experienced multiple disqualifying outages, the most recent occurring last year. @Ripple — Despite being touted for banking integrations, it too has suffered outages; the network last halted in February. L2s — Contemporary designs use single sequencers that are liable to outages. It's also questionable whether they comply with DTCC requirements to "operate" from both a primary and secondary location. Bitcoin — The ecosystem lacks the requisite smart contracts functionality to support sophisticated financial applications and DTCC-required transfer restrictions. In this environment, @ethereum could very well become the default. The globally decentralized blockchain has recorded over ten years of consecutive uptime, making it one of the few blockchains that can achieve the DTCC's uptime requirements without a doubt. Even so, the DTCC also requires its critical systems to pass "annual out-of-region disaster recovery and resumption testing." How can Ethereum (a blockchain designed not to fail) possibly conduct any type of outage recovery testing? And might stratospheric, market-determined gas fees during high-use periods constitute an untenable outage? Circle's Arc could be another solution. The blockchain's permissioned proof-of-authority validator will be both decentralized enough to operate from multiple locations and centralized enough to accommodate testing. Another contender is @CantonNetwork, a public blockchain created by Digital Assets that claims to be the only network capable of offering configurable privacy and institutional-grade compliance. Canton purports to support over $6T in onchain real-world assets and process $280B in daily transactions through its network of 500 validators. Still, nothing prevents the adoption of proprietary database technology that can operate from more than one location, including some kind of Fedwire-styled, government-sponsored permissioned ledger. Conclusion Tokenization markets are a winner-take-most game. Whether DTCC tokenization ultimately settles on an existing general-purpose blockchain like Ethereum, a purpose-built RWA solution like Circle's Arc, or an unreleased Fedwire-styled government ledger, a future defined by multichain fragmentation appears an unlikely outcome. Crypto history is unambiguous on this point: liquidity crowns kings. Whichever chain manages to underpin DTCC tokenization efforts stands to inherit a gravitational pull multiple orders of magnitude greater.

“What happens when someone inside one of the most iconic retail platforms of the last cycle sees its limits up close?” @kenzimori speaks with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to trace the path that took him from the early days of Robinhood in Palo Alto — through hypergrowth, the IPO era, and the shock of the GameStop moment — to building in crypto. They discuss how witnessing the mechanics and constraints of traditional financial infrastructure firsthand reshaped his thinking, why the suspension of buys during one of retail’s most defining episodes left such a lasting impression, and how that experience ultimately pushed him toward systems designed to be more open, more resilient, and less dependent on centralized control.

“High-performance infrastructure only matters if it expands what users can actually do onchain — and makes that experience accessible at scale.” @sachitakahara sits down with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to examine why parallelized execution is becoming increasingly important for the next generation of onchain applications. From trading and DeFi to high-frequency user activity that simply breaks in low-throughput environments, they discuss how lower fees and greater execution capacity can fundamentally reshape the user experience — especially for smaller participants who are otherwise priced out. They also explore how this plays out in practice through projects like Bancor’s Carbon DeFi, where Sei has emerged as the ecosystem driving the strongest activity and volume, underscoring how performance advantages translate into real adoption.

“Virtual machines are like cities — once they reach critical mass, they become magnets that are incredibly hard to displace.” @dikshawells catches up with @jayendra_jog, Co-Founder of @SeiNetwork, to unpack this idea at a deeper level — why systems with flaws can still dominate simply because that’s where the activity, liquidity, and people already are. From New York and San Francisco to onchain environments like the EVM, they explore how network effects compound over time, why newer ecosystems struggle to pull users away even with better tech, and what it actually takes to break that inertia.

From a monster airdrop to ending the year as the #4 revenue machine in crypto ($650M+ generated and 70% of all perps volume at peak), Hyperliquid didn’t just grow in 2025 — it conquered. Here’s exactly how they pulled it off (and why 2026 will be the real test) 👇 ~~ Analysis by @kenzimori ~~ Q1 2025: The Crypto-Native Advantage Hyperliquid's year of breakneck growth kicked off with a reminder of what it means to truly have your finger on the pulse. When TRUMP launched in January, Hyperliquid had perps go live almost immediately, beating other exchanges to the punch and beginning its streak as the place for pre-launch tokens. It was able to move quickly because it stands somewhat unimpeded by corporate guardrails, but a significant element was being emphatically "in the know," spotting opportunities due to its team being tightly interwoven with the goings-on onchain. February brought the HyperEVM launch, the general-purpose smart contract layer built on top of HyperCore. While it took time to find its footing, it did so without any top-down incentive programs, building a core user base who believed in the chain's vision rather than just extracting incentives. Q2 2025: Breaking Out Traction came faster than most expected. Beyond HYPE climbing nearly 4x off its April lows, by May Hyperliquid commanded 70% of all onchain perps volume, a staggering figure for a platform with zero VC backing and no token incentives. As the market roared back, Hyperliquid's smooth UX and deep liquidity captured the order flow, with total volume climbing to $1.5T. The HyperEVM hit its stride alongside, growing TVL from $350M in April to $1.8B by mid-June as projects launched through @kinetiq_xyz, @felixprotocol, and @liminalmoney, all while burning HYPE in the background. Amid this growth, Hyperliquid seemed to be everywhere. Publicized on national TV. Profiled by Bloomberg. At the center of policy conversations with the CFTC. Q3 2025: Peak Momentum & Splintering Begins Q3 opened with a signal that Hyperliquid's infra was becoming essential outside its own ecosystem. @phantom Wallet integrated Hyperliquid via builder codes, Hyperliquid's mechanism for letting external platforms earn fees on trades they route to HyperCore. @Rabby_io followed. Then @MetaMask. A myriad of mobile trading apps went live on builder codes. "Partners" have earned nearly $50M in fees through these integrations, routing $158B in volume. Then, in September, came the USDH bidding war, revealing just how valuable Hyperliquid had become. The problem was simple: Hyperliquid held ~8% of Circle's USDC supply in its bridge, leaking roughly $100M annually to Coinbase while seeing none of that yield recycled into its own ecosystem. A native stablecoin would fix that, potentially redirecting $200M in annual revenue back to Hyperliquid. Heavyweights threw their names in. Ethena offered $75M in growth commitments. Paxos dangled PayPal and Venmo integrations. But @nativemarkets won, a team led by HYPE contributor @fiege_max, former Uniswap Labs COO @Mclader, and Paradigm researcher @anishagnihotri. Why? They fit the ethos: bootstrapped, aligned, and ready to build something organic. The ripple effects extended beyond Hyperliquid. MegaETH announced its own native stablecoin initiative shortly after. Sui followed suit in November. Yet USDH also marked HYPE's peak in mid-September, and the moment competition began to bite. Aster and Lighter both launched with aggressive airdrop campaigns. Hyperliquid's market share splintered, sitting at 17.1% at time of writing. Q4: Maturation & Growing Pains In October, HIP-3 went live, opening permissionless listings on HyperCore and advancing both the exchange's expansion and its decentralization. Anyone who stakes 500K HYPE could now deploy custom markets such as equity perpetuals, markets using yield-bearing collateral from Ethena, or markets for synthetic exposure to private companies from @ventuals. Yet, despite HIP-3's launch, HYPE price has dropped nearly 50% from its September peak. Besides market conditions and competition, two developments stand out. First, the quarter brought Hyperliquid's first ADL (Automatic De-Leveraging) event in over two years. During October 10's market breakdown, over-leveraged positions ran out of margin faster than the liquidation system could absorb. The protocol triggered auto-deleveraging over 40 times in a 12-minute span. While the system stayed solvent, Hyperliquid will likely need time to recover from the event. Then, in November, team token unlocks began. Despite lower-than-expected totals, this vesting is likely contributing to HYPE's underperformance. Selling was minimal, only 23% went to OTC desks while 40% was re-staked, but the pace of future unlocks remains unclear. From a protocol that's stood out by being transparent, this lack of clarity is likely causing market unease. The Perps Proving Ground While the market and trading activity are down, it's important not to discount how much the perps landscape has evolved alongside Hyperliquid itself. @Lighter_xyz and @Aster_DEX offer real alternatives. Offchain, Coinbase's perps offerings will soon be joined by Robinhood. More competitors will emerge as perpetuals continue going mainstream. Hyperliquid is in the midst of its proving ground and will continue to be in 2026. The question isn't whether it had a remarkable 2025, it certainly did. The question is whether the exchange can demonstrate that its model remains superior as the field gets crowded. What got them here was building a better product and ecosystem without shortcuts. What keeps them there will be doing it again.

@SachiMiyasaki 💜

Back in peak DeFi farming days you’d think about APY as how many days it would take to recoup principal with the yield. That’s how risky it felt and that same rigor should be applied when thinking about interacting onchain today. Yes, not all farms/vaults are created equal. Not all strategies carry the same risk. But you have to factor in the nonzero chance of total or meaningful principal loss. I get asked constantly what is enough yield to come onchain. I think it’s at least 18% today. Anything below that is not worth the hassle or the risk. I won’t do formal math but here is my mental model: smart contract risk + opsec risk (yours) + opsec risk (any protocol you’re interacting with). These are ever-evolving risks. The more protocols you interact with the more risk blows out exponentially. There are also things you can’t control. Anthropic’s latest model just found vulnerabilities in codebases from some of the most resourced and established companies in the world. If you think DeFi protocols (written faster and audited lighter) are a harder target, think again. I say this as a DeFi bull. Onchain rates are low because there is no demand for assets. That is not the same as risk being priced correctly.

In a volatile year for DeFi, Coinbase’s L2 kept compounding builder momentum while other chains stalled... Finishing #1 in L2 revenue with $82.6M earned, $4.3B in DeFi TVL, and $4.8B in stablecoins. Here’s a closer look at the products, programs, and upgrades that made Base's year one for the books👇 ~~ Analysis by @punk7954 ~~ 1. Growing the DeFi Mullet While @base has grown alongside Coinbase, Coinbase has also leaned on Base, using it to offer a unique suite of hybrid onchain/offchain products (commonly referred to as the DeFi mullet) that apply centralized finance convenience to DeFi flexibility. Here are some of the top efforts: ➢ Onchain Loans — Through Coinbase, U.S. users can borrow up to $5M in USDC against BTC or up to $1M against ETH, enabled by the exchange's direct integration with the Morpho lending protocol on Base. Your BTC auto-converts to cbBTC, deposits into Morpho, and your USDC arrives in under a minute. Compare this against the week-long process of applying for a bank loan and it becomes clear how superior crypto's systems are. So far, this feature has seen $1.5B borrowed and $1.6B in collateralized BTC, with nearly 19K borrowers to date. ➢ Yield Opportunities — Beyond borrowing, Coinbase users have access to a series of yield options. They can deposit USDC directly into @Morpho vaults to earn yields higher than typical 4% savings rates, timed nicely as rate cuts reduce traditional yields. For those seeking maximally compliant liquidity venues, Verified Pools offer specialized @Uniswap v4 pools open only to Coinbase-KYC'd users, optimized by risk-management firm @gauntlet_xyz. ➢ DEX Integration — Coinbase also integrated DEX trading directly into its exchange, allowing U.S. users (minus New York...) to trade Base tokens without leaving the app. When you make your first trade, the app creates a self-custody wallet — you hold the keys, but the UX looks just like buying tokens normally on the exchange, with all swap fees sponsored. For traders, it's onchain access without the usual friction. For Base projects, it's expanded distribution to millions of more users. Taken together, the combo of accessible loans, competitive yields, and DEX integration positions Coinbase to function as much as a neobank as it is an exchange, a bold vision enabled by Base. 2. Scaling Builder Tools & Programs Base stands out for its builder-first growth ethos. Instead of elaborate governance structures, the chain has developed tools and programs that reward and support existing builders and lower the barrier for new ones. ➢ Builder Programs — Base organizes a global builder program called Base Batches for pre-accelerator talent, with dedicated tracks for AI, stablecoins, and consumer apps. Structured around a series of hackathons, the program aims to provide early-stage support and possible pathways to incubators and venture funding. Meanwhile, Base Build offers a development dashboard with real-time user analytics from launch, along with a monetization option through builder rewards. ➢ Toolkits — For plug-and-play infrastructure, Base provides a set of tools, including Embedded Wallets for account abstraction, Base Pay for USDC checkout within applications, and Sign on with Base, which streamlines account creation and onboarding. ➢ x402 — Perhaps the most forward-looking addition has been x402, an open payments standard that allows payments to be attached to web requests. The protocol solves the hassle of traditional API access by letting you pay automatically based on usage, per-call or per-inference, with payment happening instantly as part of the request. This enables AI agents to act as true, autonomous service providers, managing all the expenses and access they need to run operations independently. The through line here is accessibility. By equipping builders to ship faster, Base stimulates its onchain economy, makes it easy for people to experiment onchain, and positions their L2 as a positive-sum environment. 3. Shipping New Technical Upgrades Beyond brand power and product launches, Base kept making under-the-hood improvements, strengthening security, slashing latency, and expanding connectivity. ➢ Decentralization — In April, Base hit Stage 1 decentralization with the launch of permissionless fault proofs and the implementation of a security council. This strengthened the chain's security and reduced its trust assumptions, particularly important given the chain's close relationship with a shareholder-owned public entity. ➢ Scaling — July brought the debut of Flashblocks, which slashed block times from 2 seconds to 200 milliseconds, moving transactions into "instant" territory. In December, Base launched a native Solana bridge using @chainlink CCIP, enabling SPL token support within Base applications and cross-chain actions where transactions on one chain can trigger transactions on the other. It's the first non-Ethereum chain connected to Base, positioning it as a hub where every asset can exist across every network. These upgrades lay the groundwork for Base to compete on performance, not just distribution, while reducing the trust assumptions that come with being tied to a centralized exchange. 4. Laying Out the Next Phase of Base Beyond infrastructure and product releases, two big developments stood out: the first showcasing a new method for traversing the chain, and the second (soft) confirming something many had hoped for from the beginning. ➢ Base App — Base launched the Base App in July and has expanded it to 140+ countries, replacing Coinbase Wallet as the ecosystem's primary interface and signaling a shift toward social-first crypto. The app integrates chat, trading, social features, and mini-app discovery all wrapped up in one familiar feed. It currently has 169K registered users, and while many are certainly there to farm the chain's upcoming token, there is a core group of users embracing its call to "just coin it," and tokenize their media onchain. ➢ BASE Token — At Base Camp in September, the team publicly confirmed they're "exploring" a native token. Given the soft framing, it's likely it will be some time before a BASE token goes live. In the meantime, airdrop hunters are getting active as it's almost certain that onchain activity will be rewarded if they pursue an airdrop as part of a possible token launch. Together, these moves sketch a vision of Base as a living ecosystem with its own culture and incentives, one where participation, especially as a builder, can pay off handsomely. Looking Ahead Base's 2025 was defined by stacking advantages. The symbiosis with Coinbase has proven mutually beneficial: Base gets a built-in distribution mechanism and trusted brand for onboarding newcomers, while Coinbase gets the infrastructure to offer hybrid products that meaningfully distinguish it from competitors. At the same time, the chain's builder-first ethos has cultivated a positive-sum environment that stood out during a year that was all over the place. And with Stage 1 decentralization achieved, Base has made meaningful progress in reducing the trust assumptions that naturally accompany an exchange-backed L2. The result is the most successful exchange-backed L2 to date, built on a foundation that positions it well for the next phase of growth. Its most credible near-term challenger may be Robinhood's L2, which, if launched, could prove to be an ultimate test for the chain's staying power. It may still be day one for the chain, but the momentum suggests it is building toward something much larger.

Prediction markets got their big break in 2025, validated by the 2024 U.S. election, they exploded with regulatory clarity opening up novel markets. Today we're turning to top prediction market events for 2026 to see what the hive mind of bettors believe will go down in the new year. Here's how Polymarket's predicting 2026 will unfold.👇 ~~ Analysis by @TheaSoren ~~ FIFA World Cup Winner The premier invitational men's soccer tournament will be the largest in tournament history, hosting 48 teams with play scattered across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Winning this tournament means navigating an expanded format, surviving a longer path through group and knockout stages, and proving soccer superiority on a global stage with literally billions of people watching. According to prediction market platform @Polymarket, Spain is projected as the current favorite to win the World Cup with 16% odds, followed closely by England, France, and Argentina. Super Bowl Championship Super Bowl LX will crown the champion of the NFL for the 2025-2026 season on Sunday, February 6, 2026. The biggest single-day sporting event in the United States, the Super Bowl combines elite American football with a cultural spectacle. The Los Angeles Rams rank as the current favorite to win the Super Bowl among bettors on Polymarket, with a 14% chance, followed by the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Denver Broncos. Nobel Peace Prize Winner The Nobel Peace Prize is one of the world's most prestigious international awards, honoring individuals or organizations that have made outstanding contributions to the promotion of peace. Awarded each December in Oslo, the six Nobel Prizes reflect Alfred Nobel's desire to recognize individuals for outstanding efforts in: physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, economics, and peace. With a 19% chance, the International Court of Justice is the current rising favorite on Polymarket to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. U.S. President Donald Trump, The UNRWA, and Russian political opposition leader Yulia Navalnaya are close behind. Warner Bros. Acquisition Warner Bros. is an influential entertainment studio that has shaped popular culture for over a century. Founded in 1923, the studio is behind iconic franchises including Harry Potter, The Lord of the Rings, Looney Tunes, and Game of Thrones. This month, streaming service Netflix announced that it had entered into an agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. to acquire the Warner Bros. part of its business for approximately $82B in a cash and stock transaction. Although the deal has yet to close and must contend with a hostile takeover bid from competitor Paramount Skydance, the odds that Netflix emerges victorious have settled around 24% in recent weeks. Highest Grossing Movie The superlative of the "highest grossing movie" will be awarded to the new film that generated the most revenue at global box offices. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the current leader on Polymarket, with 32% odds that it will win the title of highest grossing movie in 2026. It remains in close contention with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Avengers: Doomsday. Fed Rate Cuts The Federal Reserve aims to control the price of money by altering the "Federal Funds" benchmark interest rate. Today, the Fed is targeting overnight interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, but looking ahead to 2026, Polymarket bettors overwhelmingly expect further easing. The highest-probability outcome points to 0.50% in cumulative cuts, though 10% of the bettors still believe the Fed could slash rates by as much as 1.25%. Balance of Power Following 2024's general election, Republicans took control over both federal legislative chambers. American voters will have the opportunity to reshape this balance of power during next year's midterm elections. These elections will determine which party sets the legislative agenda, oversees the executive branch, and influences the direction of U.S. policy heading into the next presidential cycle. In 2026, it appears that Americans will seek out change from the current mono-party political regime. The odds of a Democrat sweep now lie at 33%, and markets are assigning a 48% chance that the party reclaims control of the House. Global Temperature Global temperatures have climbed relentlessly over the past decade, with recent years consistently challenging historical heat records. Polymarket speculators are bracing for even more extreme heat in 2026, assigning a 38% chance that it ranks as the fourth hottest year of all time and a 9% chance that it sets a new record, based on NASA's Global Land–Ocean Temperature Index. U.S. Recession Fears of a U.S. recession have loomed large over markets for years. While the economy has so far avoided a hard landing, slowing growth and inflation continue to fuel uncertainty about the durability of persistent economic expansion. For now, Polymarket speculators appear relatively optimistic, assigning just a 27% chance to a U.S. recession occurring in 2026. Presidential Impeachment Impeachment has become a recurring feature in American politics, and President Donald Trump is no stranger to the process, having been impeached twice as a result of his first term. Whether impeachment resurfaces in 2026 is likely to depend on the balance of power in Congress, the political incentives of lawmakers, and the trajectory of ongoing legal and ethical controversies surrounding Trump. The probability that Donald Trump is impeached by the end of 2026 currently stands at just 16%. With the results of next year's midterm elections not set to take effect until 2027, those odds appear justified, even in the event of a Democratic sweep.

.@VitalikButerin just made a bold declaration: ETHEREUM HAS SOLVED THE BLOCKCHAIN TRILEMMA He credits a new combination of technical upgrades that are working together to push the network’s scaling limit – without sacrificing decentralization or security. Today, we’re exploring where Ethereum is headed next. 👇 ~~ Article by @punk6583 ~~ 🔍 Ethereum’s Scaling Future All networks make tradeoffs between decentralization, security, and scalability. While peer-to-peer file sharing platform BitTorrent is highly decentralized and very scalable, it has no single source of truth that forms network consensus, providing weak security guarantees. Although Bitcoin achieves strong decentralization and security guarantees, the network has an extremely slow throughput of approximately 7 transactions per second. And while the Solana network delivers Bitcoin-like security at much faster speeds, the network’s hefty hardware requirements restrict participation to commercial-quality node operators, limiting decentralization. The blockchain trilemma constrained the development of a balanced blockchain that simultaneously optimizes for decentralization, security, and scalability in each of these examples. Yet, Vitalik Buterin believes Ethereum can achieve where others have failed using zkEVMs and PeerDAS. 🔒 What are zkEVMs? Zero-Knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machines (zkEVMs) are a type of scaling solution that executes Ethereum transactions offchain and proves their correctness back onchain using cryptographic zero-knowledge proofs. Instead of individually submitting transactions to the Ethereum L1, zkEVMs bundle thousands of transactions together in a proof, which accounts for the results of transactions while circumventing the need for blockchain computation. This design increases scalability by using offchain execution, while preserving Ethereum-grade security via onchain proof verification. Vitalik characterizes contemporary zkEVMs as “alpha stage,” claiming they enjoy production-quality performance, but require safety work. He expects their full benefits to emerge over the next 4 years, with the first opportunities to run zkEVM nodes occurring sometime in the new year. 📡 What is PeerDAS? Peer-to-Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS) is Ethereum’s latest leap in data scaling. It was adopted to mainnet on December 3, 2025, and served as the headline improvement of Ethereum’s recent Fusaka upgrade. Rollups need to publish transaction data to Ethereum so the network can independently verify state transitions, and PeerDAS dramatically reduces the cost of making this data available by allowing nodes to sample small pieces of data from peers, rather than downloading entire data blobs. PeerDAS (live today on mainnet) allowed Ethereum to increase the dedicated “blob” storage space for data availability with no changes to the hardware requirements for nodes that want to validate the Ethereum L1. 🧭 Where to Next? Over the next four years, Vitalik believes that Ethereum can become the first network to fully conquer the blockchain trilemma. Such a breakthrough is not anticipated to be the outcome of a single sudden achievement; rather it is expected to be the gradual result of sustained progress over time. Ethereum has already expanded data availability through PeerDAS, and while developers expect initial zkEVM node experiments to begin this year, Buterin doesn’t anticipate zkEVMs will become a dominant method of block validation until later this decade. Although execution risk remains, should Vitalik’s scaling vision materialize, Ethereum could very well redefine what’s possible for decentralized systems, offering a model where security, decentralization, and scalability reinforce one another instead of competing.

Crypto may finally get the market structure it's craved: the bipartisan Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (DAMCA), a 278-page bill from months of Senate negotiations with industry input. It divides oversight between SEC and CFTC, with concessions drawing mixed reactions. Paradigm's Justin Slaughter called it "a big win for Democratic Members on Senate Banking." Here are five key provisions that could shape crypto's future. 👇 ~~ Analysis by @kenzimori ~~ No Stablecoin Yield Under the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stablecoin issuers will be prohibited from distributing yield back to passive token holders. Title IV of DAMCA, which lays out the rules for how regulated banking institutions can interact with digital assets, will prohibit stablecoin issuers (as defined by the GENIUS Act) from making interest payments to holders. While DAMCA will allow stablecoin issuers to distribute rewards tied to actions, such as account opening incentives and cashback rewards, protecting stablecoin yield had previously been a firm "red line" for the crypto industry. Heavy restrictions on stablecoins risk putting crypto-native issuers at a perpetual disadvantage against the banking sector. Still, many key crypto players – including Coinbase – have surprisingly continued to back the bill's language on stablecoin yield prohibition, viewing it as the least favorable language they could tolerate without derailing the bill's momentum. Commodity Clarity Title I of DAMCA would amend the Securities Act of 1933 to clarify when crypto network tokens transition from securities into commodities. The SEC will publish formal guidelines within 360 days for when initial token distributors and largest recipients are considered a token's issuer. Title I establishes expansive regulations over anyone who sold, controlled, or caused the initial distribution, extending liability to related persons and SEC jurisdiction over foreign government tokens, tokens without company structures, and majority American-owned tokens. Network tokens can be treated as non-securities when they have no attached financial rights, such as profit sharing or ownership interest. To certify their non-security status, asset issuers must submit written certifications to the SEC. The Commission has 60 days to deny the certification. Projects unable to certify must publish semiannual mandatory disclosures. Projects with over $25M in gross proceeds must also publish audited financial statements. Title I will not be applied retroactively, meaning individuals who distributed tokens before enactment need not fear retroactive liability. DeFi Regulation Title III of DAMCA outlines when crypto projects are – and are not – considered truly "decentralized." A decentralized protocol allows users to make financial transactions via an "automated rule or algorithm that is predetermined and non-discretionary" without relying on a person to maintain custody or control over their assets. The designation of "non-decentralized finance trading protocol" applies when: a person or group can control or alter functionality; the application doesn't operate based solely on code; or a person or group can restrict, censor, or prohibit user activity. Non-decentralized protocols must comply with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Bank Secrecy Act, imposing registration, conduct, disclosure, record-keeping, and supervision requirements. This may capture non-immutable smart contract protocols with even minimal operator control, including those using multi-signature technology or trusted encryption environments. Title III includes a carveout allowing protocol "security councils" to respond to incidents with "pre-defined, temporary rules-based cybersecurity emergency measures" without jeopardizing their decentralization status. Title III also imposes requirements on "web-hosted" crypto wallets, mandating compliance with sanctions and anti-money laundering regulations. This regulation won't apply to "any software or hardware wallet that facilitates the custody of an individual of their digital assets." Micro-Innovation Sandbox DAMCA will require the CFTC and SEC to establish a "Micro-Innovation Sandbox" within 360 days of its enactment to "enable 10 eligible firms to test innovative activities within the United States," subject to applicable Federal and State securities and commodities laws. To participate, eligible groups must be looking to conduct lawful innovative activities within the United States, and cannot employ more than 25 employees or gross more than $10M of revenue in any given fiscal year. All applications must be jointly approved by the CFTC and SEC for entry, and participants in the program will be granted regulatory relief, which can be revoked at any time by discretion of the Commissions. Sandbox participants will be required to satisfy the disclosure requirements of both Commissions when their jurisdiction is implicated, and any regulatory relief granted through the program will supersede any State securities or commodities registration requirements. Program acceptance will be limited to 20 projects per year, and accepted firms will be limited to $20M in aggregate customer, investor, or counterparty funds. Digital Asset Kiosk Crackdown Perhaps most surprisingly, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act devotes significant attention to the regulation of digital asset kiosks – think Bitcoin ATMs. Under Section 205 of DAMCA, digital asset kiosks will be designated as "money transmitting businesses," imposing substantial regulatory burdens on operators of these cash-for-crypto machines. Every 90 days, operators will be required to submit a detailed list of their kiosks to the Secretary of the Treasury, including the operator's legal name, trade name, the physical address of each kiosk, and the digital assets compatible with the kiosk. Before entering into transactions, operators must disclose their terms and government-imposed consumer warnings in an easily readable manner. Digital asset kiosks will be required to furnish customers with a receipt detailing their transaction, and implement anti-fraud controls to prevent the transfer of digital assets to wallets known to be affiliated with fraudulent activity. The Secretary of the Treasury will also be empowered to set limits on single-day deposits and withdrawals at their discretion, but until such time, digital asset kiosk operators will not be permitted to conduct transactions exceeding $3.5k with "new customers" within any 24-hour period.

@kenzimori sits down with @nickemmons, Co-Founder of @AlloraNetwork, to unpack the early conviction that pulled him into crypto — not as a trend, but as a new way to rethink power, coordination, and how systems are built. Before founding Allora, Nick led blockchain development at a major asset manager and insurance firm across North America, during a time when most enterprises were still focused on private chains and consortiums. Instead, he pushed toward public Ethereum — building real enterprise use cases around decentralized insurance and trying to capture what actually made blockchain powerful. From those early experiments to the AI x crypto frontier, this conversation traces how Nick’s view of decentralized systems kept expanding.

@AlloraNetwork has now raised $35M in total — but the latest $3M round wasn’t just about capital. @sachimiyasaki speaks with @nickemmons about why this round was built around strategic alignment: bringing in AI-forward partners, funds, and individuals who understand where decentralized collective intelligence is heading. The goal isn’t only to grow the team or move faster. It’s to surround Allora Network with people who can help shape the next phase of AI coordination.

AI doesn’t need another isolated model. It needs a network where intelligence can compound. @kenzimori in conversation with @nickemmons, Co-Founder of @AlloraNetwork, on breaking AI out of silos, turning fragmented models into collective intelligence, and building the coordination layer that could move AI beyond the control of a few monoliths.

Web3 and AI are both hitting an inflection point at the same time. AI is redefining intelligence, automation, and how people interact with technology. Crypto is building the economic rails for that intelligence to coordinate, transact, and operate in open networks. @dikshawells in conversation with @nickemmons (Co-Founder, @AlloraNetwork) on why the overlap between AI and crypto may become one of the biggest design spaces of the next decade — and why we’ve barely scratched the surface.