Beck Davidson

⏰ May 21, 2026 at 01:45PM CST 🚨Current Condition: Partly Cloudy 🌡️Current Temperature: 79°F 💨Wind Speed: 10 MPH 🧭Wind Direction: Northeast 💧Humidity: 77% #WeatherUpdate #Starbase

Interesting divergence developing between $SATS price on NASDAQ and SpaceX price on Hyperliquid

$SATS - what happened to the DBS bond restructuring announced in SATS's March 8-K filing? Seems we should be getting a status update soon. Are TPG and SATS hard at work behind the scenes?

@brad_patnaude @dan_tmt Right?! Maybe DTV+DBS spins into CONX....

@dan_tmt @BeckDavidsonV if you have a chance to negotiate down 1.5 BILLION you gotta at least try I guess....

I don't see what $SATS gained by going through with this fight with bondholders. Maybe they thought they had a better case before the lawsuit happened? Feels like the same way the fight with vendors is going to go.

@dan_tmt SATS needed to quash the bonds' de facto veto over a DBS acquisition of DTV (which is the reverse of Origo's thesis). My bet is SATS takes control of the combined entity, as what other exit does TPG have for DTV? This would crystalize $5-$10bn equity value for SATS.

@BeckDavidsonV I get why they made a deal now. I don't know why Echostar required a lawsuit to get to this point though.

Doesn't Ergen's CONX (CNXX) hold ~100mm of SATS stock?

Still think an interesting announcement poss for $SATS in Paris, even after the AWS-4 sale. Maybe $SATS (Hughes+'5G Core') will provide the operating system for Starlink's BB D2D ambitions? Who else has all the pieces already in place? And on brand for Ergen to keep building...

$SATS MDA Space spend now $0.00 - contract cancelled. Probably a breakage fee due

Bloomberg: Starlink Said In Advanced Talks to Acquire EchoStar Spectrum

Let's add these to the prior list of potential $SATS September 'surprises': -- new iPhone reveal -- Boost spin-out -- EU MSS partner Will be interesting!

Happy LDW...with a keen eye on the next three weeks for $SATS! More spectrum sales? Spectrum complete liquidation? More color on Wideband LEO D2D? Anchor D2D partners announced in Paris? DBS><DTV rekindling? Will be interesting!

@dan_tmt Hard to argue with Dan's close reading of the announcements, though perhaps the $T deal allows keeping the not non-economic tower sites, which would be a bullish outcome for cash flow, and less disappointing.

I was hoping that $SATS will continue to keep some of their sites operating with non-600MHz spectrum, but after rereading through this paragraph again with a fine-tooth comb, it definitely sounds like Echostar is planning to decom ALL of their towers. 24k sites 😢 I was in denial about this, but that appears to be the situation. "Through Boost Mobile's hybrid MNO infrastructure, subscribers will continue to receive service from Boost Mobile's cloud-native 5G core connected to AT&T's leading nationwide network. While primary connectivity will be provided by AT&T's towers, Boost Mobile subscribers will continue to have access to the T-Mobile network. Customers will experience no interruptions to service. As a result of this transaction, elements of Boost Mobile's radio access network (RAN) will be decommissioned over time." - No mention of any connectivity coming from Dish: primary AT&T + T-Mobile backup - Doesn't specify that only some towers will decom. It therefore sounds like all of them. - Elements defined in the 8k: "elements including base stations, radios, radio access network (RAN) software and spectrum frequencies" - That's everything. - Hamid's quote also supports the view that the remaining spectrum portfolio is up for sale as it will not longer be needed: "We continue to evaluate strategic opportunities for our remaining spectrum portfolio in partnership with the U.S. government and wireless industry participants." If this is the correct understanding, it is crazy how much wasted effort and money went into building the network. Truly a shame. I wish cable had bought it. Not great for tower stocks: $AMT $CCI $SBAC Dish was a good growth driver for them.

@dan_tmt Great notes as usual. And a great day for SATS. My bet: Ergen still needs something to do (he'll never retire), so the D2D plan outlined on the last quarterly call stays intact. Now that debt is resolved, it opens the way for a name-brand partner like AMZN/MSFT to JV the LEOs

The magnitude of this Echostar transaction cannot be understated! Below is an excerpt I sent to LPs on July 30th anticipating this transaction. - 3.45 GHz + 600 MHz selling at $23 billion is a massive deleveraging event and a higher price than anticipated - Becoming a hybrid MNO with $T - Does $SATS still need to rollout sites now or can they save all the expected capex?

Very favorable 8-K this morning from EchoStar $SATS

@dan_tmt Well put, and hoping we don't need puts! Does the latest bond interest grace period expire tomorrow?

Looking forward to the Echostar $SATS earnings call Friday. The darkest hour is right before the dawn. Hard to believe it was only last quarter that the letter was sent. Feels like we are getting ready to enter the dawn IMO. It will be interesting to see who we wake up with... SpaceX, $AAPL, $T, $CHTR, $CMCSA, $AMZN?

@dan_tmt Cliff Asness would have a point of view on this.

Does on-base percentage or homeruns matter more in investing? I can make a good argument for both sides.

@thebigcat30 @EchoStar Yes, and with Convert Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation now successfully done, no more cross default between DISH and DBS sub. Charlie can just let it go at no loss (well, except for the $1)