Dan

@nuggy5 @KenR0415 I still own it. Slow mover. No real changes in thesis.

@dan_tmt @KenR0415 any updates here? was curious what your thoughts were going forward on this name.

@dan_tmt Still in $TDS? Thoughts on buying out $AD?

I've been building something for personal use recently that I think others here may find useful too. Hoping to share next week. 👀

$SPCX SpaceX AI Valuation "The required trajectory is achievable, but it's in the tail of outcomes — and I think the market is pricing the bull case fully. The base rate isn't kind. Going from $20B to $275B in revenue over 10 years (~30% CAGR) has been done — Amazon 2010-2020 was roughly this, Meta did it from a smaller base, Google did it. But these are the handful of greatest growth stories in history, and they were all software businesses with vastly better unit economics than rockets and satellites. The list of companies that hit Apple-like FCF margins (~25%+) at $275B revenue while running a hardware-heavy, capital-intensive business is zero. The valuation requires multiple miracles in series, not one: Starship works at high cadence (currently 11 flight tests, none operational at payload scale) Starlink keeps growing 30%+ from 10M subs (saturation risk as Kuiper and Chinese constellations launch) xAI actually monetizes — Grok currently runs a deep loss with no obvious moat vs. OpenAI/Anthropic/Google Orbital data centers work technically and economically (unproven physics-meets-economics) Musk stays focused across SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, X, Neuralink, Boring Co. Each of these is maybe 60-70% likely on its own. Multiply them and you're at 10-20% for the full bull case to land. The asymmetry is what bothers me. At $1.75T (~93x trailing revenue, vs. Nvidia at ~30x, Apple at ~9x), you're paying for the bull case to fully play out. If it does, you maybe double over a decade — decent but not extraordinary given the risk. If any leg breaks, you can lose 40-70%. Compare to buying Amazon in 2010 at ~3x revenue: the bull case wasn't priced in, so when it played out you made 20x. My honest probability split: Hits or exceeds the implied trajectory: ~15-20% Meaningful undershoot (worth $0.5-1T at 2035 maturity): ~55-65% Catastrophic break (Starship fails, xAI flames out, Musk distraction compounds): ~15-25% I'd separate the company from the security. SpaceX is one of the most impressive operational stories in modern business history. But at this entry price, the security has limited upside and meaningful downside. The interesting trade isn't the IPO — it's finding the moments over the next 2-3 years when one of the dependencies wobbles and the multiple compresses, then revisiting." $SATS

That's not how I read it at all. They said that Echostar did not meet their build deadlines according to the FCC so the FCC was going to take away the spectrum. That is not a force majeure. That is Echostar screwing up. They then sold the spectrum so that the spectrum wasn't taken away.

@chlytle33 @darkstarsats @dan_tmt @WaltLightShed Do analysts do work anymore? Cc: @dan_tmt

SpaceX Spooks the Telcos and Throws Towers a Bone. $TMUS $T $VZ $SATS $AMT $CCI $SBAC $ASTS $AMZN lightshedtmt.com/2026/05/14/spa…

$ATEX above $60 🔥

I am very surprised. It looks like DOJ is planning to approve the $SATS transactions without any issues. It wouldn't surprise me if this was the fight Slater was having that caused her to leave.

@Tangible_Bruce I think it's a 🍩. Anyone can remake Expensify in like a 1 month.

@dan_tmt Did you bottom tick this....maybe some value now? I wrote it up this week if it interests you: substack.com/home/post/p-19…

$EXFY down 98% in around 4 years.

@yummyCenturyEgg The bright side is it can only lose another 72 cents....

@dan_tmt it's a preview

$OPTU is even worse than $CABO ...

@SeattleCigars Or this JV has no details worked out at all

@dan_tmt Sounds like a poor public speaker

I have never heard more "umm"s and "uhh"s as $VZ CEO just used when answering how the JV with $T and $TMUS is going to work. Sounds very unbaked.

Reading through 13F filings of funds I follow. So many with large PUT positions. Curious to see how they have done this quarter.

@TechFundies I would bet people most people build Claude programs are using FMP than Factset.

@TechFundies Most people building Financial apps right now are not using FDS, they are going with budget options like FMP and Perplexity. The budget options will only become better in time as they scale.

Random thoughts after connecting $FDS to Claude Chat / Cowork. My thinking is I want to approach AI as a typical user for investment advancement and use the learnings as a proxy for SaaS (as opposed to judging the impact of AI on FIG which I have never used before). Investment management likely downplays the importance of collaboration functionality in enterprise SaaS since most investment ideas are run from start to finish by a single person w/ just the end product being shared with a committee. 1. Connectors take Claude to a whole new level. By adding $FDS, I now get reliable data which takes my trust and application of AI much further. 2. Trying to replicate old, working things is frustrating. I tried to have Claude replicate my Excel quicksheet which is built with $FDS excel codes. It sort of worked but then I realized it was just very buggy and hard to get working as reliably as my spreadsheet. And then I asked myself why I was spending money and time working on rebuilding something that already works well. Same applies for $MSFT apps – can just connect to them and work on spreadsheets, emails, etc. 3. Building new stuff is easier and cool. I quickly prompted it to build an artifact that pulls the tech universe and helps me parse which businesses are accelerating. I then quickly prompted it to run the same analysis but by subsector. I think the data is likely correct and could quickly visualize the market’s enthusiasm for semis and avoidance of application software (see image). The new stuff is what I think everyone should be excited about. It’s new functionality, analysis, insights that can allow me or a business to advance and outperform competition. 4. The fastest, most efficient way to get to new functionality is via incumbent data / sw providers. I can pay more for $FDS MCP and am good to go. No change to existing processes or loss of procedure. Just ready to work on new things. I could purchase MCP from a smaller vendor but most of their data is incomplete right now. I could switch to CapIQ or Bloomberg but A) they are just as if not more expensive, B) Bloomberg doesn’t have an MCP yet, C) I would have to switch all the old stuff too / recontract which is just a waste of calories. 5. $FDS hasn’t had anything new to sell me ever. Now they do and it’s hot. Now maybe the flipside is the MCP can be swapped out for a competitor more easily which commoditizes the offering – particularly if all the old stuff moves entirely over to Claude over time but that seems very unlikely just given how people work (evidence: Bloomberg is the most legacy tech out there and has very low churn bc of habit). 6. Should I be paying more to access $FDS data via an MCP? Arguably not since it’s just another way to expose the same data and my usage of the terminal will likely lose share of time spent. But, whatever, the spend is a very low percentage of the business and not having it just seems stupid. Can you imagine meeting an investor and responding that you don’t have clean financial data in Claude because you’re too cheap (not to mention most funds expense this to the investor anyways!)? My point just being I think people are ultimately going to spend more to get more, and will be fine with it bc of the value add. I think the same thought process applies if I were starting a new firm – why would I want anything other than the most comprehensive data set to power my AI? Jeopardizing ROI to save a bit of money makes no business sense. 7. I did some market research. CapIQ said the inbound inquiries for their MCP is “through the roof, insane, etc.” w/ per seat pricing going up by 30-50%. $FDS per seat increases are probably similar to a bit less than that. 8. $FDS has been accelerating the past 3 qtrs w/ msd growth, and I would guess that continues given MCP ramp. Margins are a bit low while re-investing in product which is a sensible thing. Stock trades at 12x this year’s GAAP EPS / 12x FCF. Stock once traded down to 14x GAAP EPS in 2008 when the financial world was ending and finance professionals were being laid off. Stock has never had a worse peak-to-trough drawdown than now. And it’s never been this cheap. Please throw rocks at this.

@TechFundies If your thesis is that businesses and consumers are too lazy to save 50%, I think that's a bad thesis.

Maybe. Here is my personal friendly challenge to you. Are you on a prepaid or postpaid cell plan? I'm guessing the latter. This weekend, call your provider and switch to prepaid. It's more or less exactly the same thing and costs 50% as much. Will save you 50% of your cell phone bill in perpetuity. If you don't do this over the weekend, then you have disproved your own thesis.

@hu_naiyi Claude

@dan_tmt Interesting! What kind of tool are you using? I may want to try this. Thanks!

Interesting sensitivity analysis on $CHTR

@hu_naiyi yeah - it's not great data. ive been working with AI to improve it. The format and ability to adjust all this in real time is amazing.

@dan_tmt The estimate looks unrealistic to me. For 2026 Q1 they have fcf at around $1.37B, and it predicts $2.6B for the whole year? How is that possible?