₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

@BeenThereCap

Semi-retired hedge fund founder. Ex hot-shot lawyer, ex hot-shot strategy consultant. Macro+picks in crypto, commodities, tech, old-economy & a few special sits

Katılım Haziran 2011
522 Takip Edilen9.5K Takipçiler
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance. 1/4
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
There's only 1 person/entity in the world whose losses on bitcoin purchases I will celebrate: Trump Media $DJT. $DJT bought 11,542 BTC for $1.37B = $118,522 each. Look at this chart. It was INCREDIBLY hard to get an average cost that high. Now they're selling at a big loss 👑🤡
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
@toiletkingcap @GavinSBaker There is no bet to be had. The future is always a collection of possible outcomes. You need to factor into your decisionmaking the ones that will be important if true even if they're less likely than not. "Data centers in space" is a big one of those for investing decisions.
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
I hereby take back every post I've made disparaging "data centers in space" as suspiciously unfeasible. I have now reviewed several balanced articles and watched an interview with @GavinSBaker touching on the topic. The answer is: They are *possible,* within several years. 1/x
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
@toiletkingcap @GavinSBaker No bet. 1. I said "possible" (non-trivial odds), not "more likely than not" (>50%) 2. I said 5 years is possible, your deadline is 4.5 years 3. You're probably defining "datacenter" differently than what it would be (a network of 100kw-1Mw satellites)
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
My 2nd-best source was @GavinSBaker's discussion here, at 14:00-22:00. His largest value-add was just noting that the world's ~best engineers, those at SpaceX, are on the job *and* sound confident (not just Elon) they'll get there. 5/x (end for now) x.com/patrick_oshag/…
Patrick OShaughnessy@patrick_oshag

This is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker. As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers. We discuss: - Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble - Data centers in space (reframed) - Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia - Usage-based pricing - The disaggregation of GPUs - DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon

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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
Consumer sentiment survey responses have devolved from actual opinions about the economy's condition & prospects to opinions about how the current president/admin is handling the economy. And the latter is really 1/2 that, and 1/2 how much people just like or hate that president
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い retweetledi
Paul Graham
Paul Graham@paulg·
The fact that Trump made so sure to silence Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie makes me more convinced than ever that there's something really incriminating in the Epstein files.
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José Maria Macedo
José Maria Macedo@ZeMariaMacedo·
This is maybe the best articulation I've read of a feeling I've had for a while but struggled to put into words: crypto has simultaneously succeeded beyond my wildest dreams, and yet somehow still deeply disappointed me in terms of what I thought it would actually mean for the world "where the strong form of crypto failed, the weak form (of commoditized ledger/database tech for financial transactions) has succeeded beyond anyone's expectation. the consequence is that crypto has been reduced to a vassal of traditional finance, both more impactful than any normie anticipated, and deeply disappointing in structure to crypto OGs. reducing global transaction costs as commoditized ledger/database technology reduces drag on global GDP, but this is a marginal improvement over the status quo and one where the value accrues in large part to incumbent intermediaries in reducing overhead and improving margins"
makesy@0xMakesy

i have been incredibly humbled by the inability of fantasy top, friendtech and consumer crypto apps to cross the chasm. crypto in its most ambitious form (of ushering in a new era of user owned software and infrastructure) has failed. we optimistically tried to blend the personas of investor (people allocating capital to production to receive more money than they put in) and consumer (people willing to pay more for a product than it costs to operate) and found ourselves serving the needs of neither. where the strong form of crypto failed, the weak form (of commoditized ledger/database tech for financial transactions) has succeeded beyond anyone's expectation. the consequence is that crypto has been reduced to a vassal of traditional finance, both more impactful than any normie anticipated, and deeply disappointing in structure to crypto OGs. reducing global transaction costs as commoditized ledger/database technology reduces drag on global GDP, but this is a marginal improvement over the status quo and one where the value accrues in large part to incumbent intermediaries in reducing overhead and improving margins. crypto was supposed to be the most egalitarian thing ever. it was insanely ambitious and, if it worked, could have really changed the fabric of society. it didn't. it's over. we haven't found the right primitives, and, more importantly, the right culture for delivering the most ambitious version of crypto. it's time to question everything again.

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Mike Levin
Mike Levin@MikeLevin·
This New York Times piece is worth your time. Here’s what is happening, as simply as I can put it. Back in January, Trump sued the IRS, an agency he controls, demanding $10 billion over the leak of his tax returns a number of years ago. IRS lawyers did their jobs. They wrote a memo laying out the defenses that could beat the suit, including the fact that Trump filed too late. His own lawyer was in court when the leaker pleaded guilty in October 2023, more than two years before Trump sued. The Justice Department never showed up to court. Never argued back. Never used the defenses sitting on their desk. The judge got suspicious and ordered both sides to explain whether they were actually opposing each other or just colluding. The day before that brief was due, Trump dropped the suit. Same day, his Justice Department announced a $1.776 billion taxpayer-funded “anti-weaponization fund.”  Trump gets a formal apology. The IRS agrees to drop any audits of him and his family, even though a 2024 Times report found a loss in an ongoing audit could cost him over $100 million. The acting Attorney General, Trump’s former criminal defense attorney, picks the five commissioners who decide who gets paid. Trump can fire any of them. Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are not ruled out. This is the most corrupt thing I’ve ever seen from an American president. Where in the hell are my Republican colleagues? nytimes.com/2026/05/19/adm…
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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
Pumpers gonna pump. The news about $QBTS getting a government grant/investment was out premarket; the stock spiked from $19.42 to 21.70 (12%) at the open. It ramped all day from 21.70 to 25.74 (another 20%) at the close. It has ramped to 27.80 (another 11%) after-hours.
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Brett Gibbs
Brett Gibbs@OilandGibbs·
If you haven't been following the Set2 D4 squeeze, it's time to wake up. @EPA has a real problem on their hands. What was an ambitious RVO to begin with has burned through over 2/3 of its SRE-driven RIN bank in 4 months that needed to last 2 years. 2027 is a PROBLEM. Set3 2028+ is looking to need the first D4 reduction in history (or atleast shifting into D5). @sab__RIN__a lays out our RIN model scenario and its implications brilliantly in our April RIN generation note ⬇️
Sabrina Gutierrez@sab__RIN__a

📣Post-April RIN Outlook Our calculated RIN bank sits at 800M vs. 2.9B starting the year, leaving only 2 months of availability at April run-rates. This raises pressure on RIN prices to swing net exports to net imports to keep the 2026 RIN bank neutral. See more ⬇️

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₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い
₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い@BeenThereCap·
SpaceX's total TAM is 80% for AI, or so it says in its S-1, filed the same day we learned that Anthropic is wiping the floor with SpaceX's AI business. I hope SpaceX operations are wildly successful. Not so much Elon's attempt to jam index funds with stock at a $2T valuation.
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Keşfet

@toiletkingcap @GavinSBaker @EPA @sab__RIN__a @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano