₿ΞΞnThereDoneThat Capital 賢い

I nailed the GFC - saw it coming, heavily shorted into it, kept making money running net-flat for months while most were getting destroyed. Then I botched the turn, getting net short early into a monster rally and giving back more than half my fund's outperformance. 1/4

It looks like every single Norwegian turned out to cheer on its football team for their World Cup *quarterfinals appearance.* I literally can't imagine a bigger celebration if they had won another match or three. I guess you could have the Norway Bikini Team and boxes of raw wagyu beef and ketamine parachuting from the sky down onto the truck.

As I've said from day one: we like regulation. Today's Executive Order is a positive step. Lake Mariner is operational, and our expansion supporting Fluidstack and Google is fully permitted—further underscoring the value of power-secured, development-ready infrastructure. Lake Hawkeye is a multi-year development, and we're also evaluating on-site power which aligns directly with the Governor's priorities for new generation. Clear rules and higher standards separate real projects from speculative ones. A win-win for New York and $WULF.

In 1945 the USS Indianapolis secretly delivered the parts for the atomic bomb that would hit Hiroshima. Days later, mission done, a Japanese submarine put two torpedoes into her. She sank in 12 minutes. Nearly 900 men made it off the ship alive and into the open ocean. Then it got worse. No one knew they were missing. Three separate Navy stations picked up the distress signals and every one of them ignored it. One officer thought it was a Japanese trap. Another had ordered not to be disturbed. So the men floated. For almost five days. No food, no fresh water, burning by day and freezing at night. Some drank seawater and went insane. And the whole time, the sharks were circling and feeding. It is considered the worst shark attack in human history. When rescue finally came by accident, only 316 of the nearly 1,200 crew were still alive. The Navy needed someone to blame for the disaster. They chose Captain Charles McVay, one of the men who survived it. He became the only U.S. captain in the entire war to be court-martialed for losing his ship to the enemy. At his trial the Navy did something almost unheard of. They brought in the Japanese commander who sank the ship to testify against him. Instead, the enemy captain told the court that zigzagging would have made no difference and that McVay did nothing wrong. They convicted him anyway. For years afterward McVay got hate mail from the families of the dead. Some sent letters every Christmas telling him he murdered their sons. In 1968 he walked onto his front lawn and shot himself, holding a toy sailor he had kept since he was a boy. Case closed. For fifty years. Then in 1996 an 11-year-old named Hunter Scott watched Jaws with his dad and got hooked on the 30 second speech about the Indianapolis. He made it his sixth grade history project. He tracked down and interviewed nearly 150 survivors. He dug through more than 800 documents. And buried in there he found what the Navy had left out, including that they knew enemy subs were operating right on the ship's route and never warned McVay. A kid's school project turned into a national story. It reached Congress. In 2000 lawmakers passed a resolution clearing McVay's name and President Clinton signed it. The Navy officially cleared his record in 2001. The captain the Navy spent decades blaming was finally exonerated by a sixth grader. Hunter Scott grew up and became a naval flight officer.

I had this same experience advising many different heads of some of the world's largest companies. Everyone is muddling through. You don't need direct experience to figure this out. Just read, e.g., any detailed account of U.S. decisionmaking leading into & during the Vietnam War.

@tradingrust Thanks. It took 9 minutes for my prediction to come true.

@BeenThereCap x.com/financialjuice…

Trump is doubling down today on his claim that the U.S. will charge a 20% Strait of Hormuz passage fee. A surprising number of people are taking his claim seriously, or pretending to. I put ~5% odds on Trump actually attempting to charge a 20% fee and ~10% on any sized fee. OK, double or triple those odds if you include "pretends to try for a week or two."

This is perfect. NYC sidewalks have 400 miles of ugly, light-blocking, pedestrian-impeding scaffolding ("sidewalk sheds") because, if a building exterior has the slightest hint of a problem, a combination of NYC laws often makes it much cheaper to just put scaffolding up and leave it there than to repair the building. The World's Most Performative Mayor looks at this problem and decides: Hey, let's paint a few of them.

There was zero chance that oil supply would tighten due to Iran without sharply increased backwardation. Backwardation is ~half of my expected 2026 oil profits.

Alternative chart title: "Use Gemini as your chatbot"

Yep, it's time for another tedious big-round-number line on the $CLMT chart.

Initial stock index response: Nope, doesn't matter.

This was not our experience 10-15 years ago. Even though one of our toured schools was Brown. I doubt it's changed. The bits of "we have wacky fun here" are clearly a marketing choice. The kids on campus are mostly very impressive, and the tour guide kids are *all* impressive.

In case you weren't paying attention - and I half-was yet didn't know the extent of this - the software sector just had a 2-month 45% relief rally. And now might give it all back over the next few weeks, judging by $IBM's results today.

I was told by multiple wise sources that today's CPI release, unlike recent prior ones, would Really Matter. Let's hope so, because the numbers came in Extremely Not Hot.

OK now do mine: NON-EQUITIES VIX term structure Short silver Long natgas Long oil EQUITIES Memory & neocloud Biofuels Sports betting Offshore rigs Homebuilding supplies Uranium miners, reactors, enrichment Gold miners SaaS Basic materials & chemicals Robotics (yes, your one) Industrial equipment Pharma mREIT preferreds Digital asset treasury clownshow EQUITY SHORTS THAT ACTUALLY HEDGE Space Quantum Semis Robotics Nuclear & enrichment Green energy Cable Healthcare Private equity Movie theaters Overpriced salads

Alternative phrasing: "No earlier than 6 years after Russia invaded." Akin to the U.S. announcing in 1943 that it would sell Britain some kit to fight the Germans "as early as" 1945.

I want you to find the difference between this song from a Korean boy band and this other song from an American movie about rainbow-colored trolls, sung by a man who played Facebook's angel investor in a different movie. 2 billion Spotify listens each. Never mind; Pam says they're the same song.

Since Ro Khanna is only 1% ahead of me on Kalshi for 2028… Free advice to American Airlines: It’s not a good idea to try and force long-shot presidential candidates to gate check their carry-on.