tradingrust

@BeenThereCap Took about 10 more minutes.

@BeenThereCap x.com/financialjuice…

Trump is doubling down today on his claim that the U.S. will charge a 20% Strait of Hormuz passage fee. A surprising number of people are taking his claim seriously, or pretending to. I put ~5% odds on Trump actually attempting to charge a 20% fee and ~10% on any sized fee. OK, double or triple those odds if you include "pretends to try for a week or two."

@AtlasShrug1 @GrumpierBTDay I might print this out and stick it to my monitor, lol.

@GrumpierBTDay I buy bull markets and good charts, supported by macro tailwinds ans good fundamentals, wherever they may be.

If you can’t be in software, but it isnt going to pay to be in hardware either, where do you go? Answer is clear but tech investors won’t say it. The sidelines. You go to the sidelines. Just as you’d get out of the friggin water if there were shark sightings at the beach. Seems easy enough, but people will fight this tooth and nail bc they don’t want it to be over.

@sdav1986 (TY for running the numbers)

@sdav1986 Damn, did pretty good in 2022 too. I get it's not a strat but I guess it means rates vol is generally expensive vs realized?

I love macro traders sounding smart. Meanwhile selling options on TLT. This is just a benchmark, my own short rates vol strategy has done even better.

@BirthrightMargs You can take your man for beer and wings. You can take your man to a sports event. You can take your man fishing. You can take your man to a movie. I think that's all the man dates - how did I do?

So you’re a Fed expert? Name all the mandates.

@peonyKingOF Served to me back-to-back.

When mfs start waxing poetic about cash, you in for a ripper. I don't make the rules.

Michael Jackson got first June 6th and wasn’t paid out until June 16th. Why did Kalshi rush to pay out fraudulent results when they often don’t pay out legitimate results promptly?

@Divergent7651 He should run for US Senator in Maine.

Random thought: a person’s tattoos are a highly intentional act that can tell you something meaningful about them. No one really gets a tattoo by accident. Except for maybe a drunken tattoo. Even that can tell you something about them. The owner of the beach club and gym I’m currently at has a tattoo of the totenkopf (the Nazi SS skull) on his calf… What did I learn infer from that? That my dealings with him should be as brief as possible and to give him a very wide berth…

@cap_zay Yes. And with oil up and 10Y up same day. Doesn't want to go down. Probably some signal there.

Surprising how well behaved indexes have been while SOXX and Korean flush out leverage.

@atelicinvest These are boomer levels of opsec on display. x.com/a_green_being/…

Llllllllolololololol Jfc.

$HQ $QTUM added ~77k shares today. Now own 98.6% of the float. Will tomorrow be the day we cross the 100% threshold?

Watching turbotourists get one-shotted by the oil market then prognosticate on PhYsiCaL mArkET reALiTiEs as they baghold shitcos while the price of oil returns to $65 will never not be amusing.

@steve2bacon you're going to pay us for your rambling?

ima start a paid discord if this market doesn’t turn around soon so help me god

@SPACspin tough tape to announce this into

$SHMD 📰 SCHMID Group Secures Repeat Order Exceeding EUR 37 Million for Advanced HDI-ML and mSAP Equipment #deSPAC globenewswire.com/news-release/2…

@peonyKingOF Five below does seem to be keeping interest at a higher plateau.

@peonyKingOF Interesting that "needoh" clearly peaked already but "squish mallow" is steady. Needoh passed us by (hadn't even heard of it) but my kids & their friends love squish mallows.

Imo $FIVE gonna continue to beat on this squishy toy craze. Market expects trend to be short-lived. If you know anyone into this stuff you realize the closest comp is the crack epidemic. Last Q was definitely not the peak. The squishy stuff is less than 10% of their revenue. The bigger picture is this (a) its becoming an entire generations favorite store, (b) they seemed to be plugged into tiktok driven trends and capable of monetizing off them in a competitors are not, and (c) dollar store are huge business and FIVE is beating the bricks off incumbents. Typical dollar tree and dollar general is looking at ~3.5-4.0 rating, while FIVE is 4.0-4.3. That said. I don't have a ton of first-hand experience in this, so I could be off. I think tunnel vision with respect to AI has resulted in a rather muted move on what would otherwise be a B-tier cult stock. When labubu had a moment, popmart saw ~20x sales. This is purest expression of the squishy trend I can find and its ~2x sales and 9 ev /ebitda. FIVE does not have the same lock on IP as labubu. At the same time, the appeal of this stuff is more durable and its easier to see how this company continues to parlay this edge beyond this moment.

Naked calls are imo less scary than being short a call spread

Damn.