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Behrad
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Every single midterm year since 1974.
Same pattern.
1974 Ford: −35%
1978 Carter: −15%
1982 Reagan: −17%
1986 Reagan: −10%
1990 Bush: −20%
1994 Clinton: −8%
1998 Clinton: −22%
2002 Bush: −34%
2006 Bush: −8%
2010 Obama: −17%
2014 Obama: −10%
2018 Trump: −20%
2022 Biden: −27%
2026 Trump: ???
Every single one had a significant drawdown.
Every single one recovered.
The long-term chart kept going up.
The question for 2026 is not if it recovers.
The question is whether you will still be invested when it does.
Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeat
Today is the DAY. April 17, 2026. The intermediate top before the most difficult time of the presidential cycle. THE BAD NEWS We're entering the mid-term correction phase. Historically, markets correct an average of 16% during this period. It's the weakest part of the 4-year presidential cycle. And it starts NOW. THE CHART SPX Seasonal Composite 4-Year Presidential Cycle (99 years of data): Election Year → Post-Election Year → Mid-Election Year → Pre-Election Year Red line (current cycle): Peaked April 17, 2026 Black line (historical average): Shows consistent mid-term weakness The pattern is clear. Mid-election years are brutal. THE HISTORICAL PATTERN Out of the last 20 presidential cycles, we've witnessed 19 sharp mid-term corrections. Average decline: 16% Timing: Mid-election year (Year 2 of the cycle) This is where markets reset. THE GOOD NEWS After 19 out of 19 sharp mid-term corrections, we've seen a new bull market. Duration: 2 years Phase: Pre-election year + election year (Year 3 and Year 4) This is the most bullish part of the cycle. THE SETUP We're at the top of Year 2. The correction is coming. But the 2-year bull market follows. THE MESSAGE Buy any dip in the coming months. Not now. Not at the top. But when the market corrects 10%, 15%, 20% — that's your entry. Because history says: Mid-term corrections are buying opportunities for the pre-election rally. THE PLAYBOOK 1. We're at the intermediate top (April 17, 2026) 2. Expect a 16% correction over the next 6-9 months 3. Layer in during weakness (-10%, -15%, -20%) 4. Hold through the pre-election year rally (Year 3) 5. Ride the election year momentum (Year 4) THE PATTERN NEVER FAILS 19 out of 19 times, the mid-term correction was followed by a 2-year bull market. That's 100%. THE LESSON Don't panic during the correction. Don't fight the cycle. Buy the dip. Hold for 2 years. That's the presidential cycle playbook. Today is the DAY. The top is in. The correction starts now. The opportunity is coming.
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Behrad retweetledi
@CIVolatility Yeah I've heard that argument many times, I don't trade based on it but I think It can give you hints about the general market movement.
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@BehradEb Chart-based technical analysis doesn't work on $UVXY. Every candle is based on a different combination of $VIX futures contracts.
civolatility.com/faq/volatility…
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I’m off for the day because it’s my birthday. I’ll be spending it with a loved one. I’ll see you all tonight or tomorrow. Nothing changed regarding my positions and my early morning market analysis. Have a good one and thank you in advance for the birthday wishes ❤️
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Behrad retweetledi
I can’t recall a day when the $SPX made a new all-time high with only 11 of its components making new 52-week highs.
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Behrad retweetledi
Since the start of the Iran war...
Sulfur: +67%
Jet Fuel: +66%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +50%
Heating Oil: +40%
WTI Crude Oil: +37%
European Natural Gas: +34%
Gasoline: +32%
Fertilizer: +31%
Brent Crude Oil: +31%
Coal: +14%
Palm Oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +7%
Rice: +4%
S&P 500: +1%
$VIX: -8%
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This is another alternative since we have $VIX OpEx tmrw and after a huge crush we might see some expansion ...
Behrad@BehradEb
$NDX hope you all make some greens...
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$BTC just broke out above a multi month downward trend... next stop 90K
Behrad@BehradEb
$BTC next resistance to watch is 79k - 80k
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👌👌
AK@1769_alex
DeMark TD Sequential is a counter-trend momentum indicator created by Tom DeMark. It is designed to spot trend exhaustion and potential reversals by measuring when buying or selling pressure is running out of steam. $SPY is currently on TD 7 on Daily and traded at 38M vol. today, very low and shows less conviction from buyers + exhaustion IMO. It's not a guaranteed, but it's a warning sign as we also have a big gap below it. Can it continues for few more days next week, absolutely but it's getting close. $VIX is also 5% away from the major support at 18 and 200MA on daily. The R/R to long from here isn't as good, NFA. @Mr_Derivatives @JohnLoc18 @Basssem666 @MichaelPBento @A_Najumi $SPX $QQQ $VIX
ART
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