Michael Young

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Michael Young

Michael Young

@BeirutCalling

Senior editor, Carnegie Middle East Center. Author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster 2010).

Beirut Katılım Ocak 2011
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
In 1984, I shot a militiaman. Story at the Lebanese Without Frontiers substack, to which I highly recommend you subscribe. It's full of fascinating material aimed at creating a collective Lebanese memory through personal recollection (and it's free): lebanesewithoutfrontiers.substack.com/p/how-i-shot-a…
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Andrew Leber
Andrew Leber@AndrewMLeber·
A falsifiable prediction from an FDD fellow - give us 2 more weeks of bombing and we can call it a day. That's already throwing good money after bad, to say nothing of the civilian death toll and damage. Still, expect the goalposts to shift on April 2. nytimes.com/2026/03/19/opi…
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
@faysalitani I agree it’s premature, and I don’t see a good plan to disarm Hezbollah. I doubt the Israelis will do so, and I doubt Lebanon’s armed forces can do so. So we’re stuck. Israel’s focus is on a buffer zone, while the Lebanese do what they always do: buy time and avoid the worst.
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Faysal Itani
Faysal Itani@faysalitani·
You’re not wrong exactly. To me it doesn’t need to be peace or a settlement anyway. There needs to be a plan to disarm Hezbollah ,an open ended ceasefire later within which the million things get sorted out. Bottom line is Hezbollah doesn’t want peace, hence all the others’ (understandable) maneuvering to make sure it doesn’t kill them or their people. Business as usual. Peace now is premature.
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
Those supporting Lebanese-Israeli peace have taken Jumblatt to task for this report, which still needs to be verified, but miss several important points: (1) He's not going to harm his strategic alliance with Nabih Berri over peace negotiations toward which there is no consensus in Lebanon; (2) He's not going to heighten tensions between the Druze and Shiite communities over peace negotiations toward which there is no consensus in Lebanon; (3) What does peace mean in light of the fact that Israel will likely occupy a swath of land in the south for an open-ended period of time, barring the return of hundreds of thousands of people? (4) Without a Lebanese consensus, all talk of a peace agreement is largely aspirational, because the reality on the ground won't permit it; worse, Lebanon will enter such negotiations without any cards, so it may look more like a surrender. I'm not debating the merits or demerits of peace, but unless one takes into consideration the positioning of the sectarian leaders, all talk of peace will quickly hit a brick wall.
El Marfaa - المرفأ@ElMarfaa

من جديد يثبت وليد جنبلاط حرصه على الداخل. يتمايز وينفرد بمواقفه، يخاصم هذا ويعادي ذاك، ولكن حين تكون الوحدة الوطنيّة هي الأساس لا يحيد الرجل عن خطّه. تؤكّد معلومات "المرفأ" أنّ جنبلاط أبلغ أصحاب الشأن أنّه لن يسمّي ممثّلًا عنه للمفاوضات مع العدوّ دون إجماع لبناني كامل. وتضيف المعلومات أنّ جنبلاط لا يرفض إرسال موفد في حال غياب ممثّل عن الطائفة الشيعيّة فقط لا غير، وإنّما يشترط حصول توافق وطني جامع في هذا الإطار، إذ إنّه لا يريد أن يشترك في 17 أيّار جديد بعد 42 عامًا من مساهمته هو بإسقاط 17 أيّار القديم، في 6 شباط 1984. #المرفأ #لبنان #وليد_جنبلاط #المفاوضات #ElMarfaa

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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
@Doranimated According to the Israelis, it’s shrapnel from an interceptor missile: #2069535044" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">haaretz.com/israel-news/is…
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Mike@Doranimated·
Iran hit Israel's refinery in Haifa.
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Dr Andreas Krieg
Dr Andreas Krieg@andreas_krieg·
Never in history have people less qualified had more destructive power
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Issam Kayssi - عصام القيسي
It’s difficult to believe anyone is at the wheel of the Lebanese Republic. On most big questions, the state feels on autopilot. Same old software, just better statements. My sense is that fourteen months ago parliament elected leadership that almost no one among the public is content with today. Christian, Sunni, Shia, Druze; pro- or anti-Hezbollah. Frustration cuts across groups and orientations for different, often opposite, reasons. What we’ve seen is months of messaging, but little structural shift. It is therefore no surprise that patience with this leadership is running out among the public while the country is once again in a full-scale war and a mass displacement crisis, both of which might have been mitigated, if not avoided. When this war ends, whatever happens to Hezbollah, Lebanon’s deeper structural issues and contradictions, which produced the country’s leadership, will still be there, and will take years to resolve. One begins to wonder whether Lebanon, as we know it, will still be intact by then.
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Shaiel Ben-Ephraim
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim@academic_la·
Open sources indicate a massive increase in Iranian launches since March 16th. That day firings went up 63.2% and one the 17th increased by 19.4%. Today it is on pace to increase again. The type of missiles is also different. Approximately 50% of Iranian ballistic missiles fired recently have contained cluster warheads, which can saturate radar and force air defense systems (like Patriot or Iron Dome) to fire multiple interceptors per target. This shows what we have long suspected. The IDF and CENTCOM are lying about the rates of destruction of launchers and Iranian missiles. Indeed, the UAE Ministry of Defence noted on March 17 that there has been "no apparent reduction in launches" since the early days of the war.
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
The president of Cyprus has called for an “open and frank discussion” about the future of UK bases on the island once the regional crisis ends. Nikos Christodoulides said the bases were a “colonial consequence,” casting doubt on their future. #1727279552" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">haaretz.com/israel-news/is…
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
Explain to Americans why they are removing sanctions on oil of a country they’re fighting in a war, allowing that country to secure funds to fight Americans. A Marx Brothers Production.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47

.@SecScottBessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.

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Ali Vaez
Ali Vaez@AliVaez·
Exclusive: Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says reuters.com/business/energ…
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
I’m puzzled, didn’t Gabbard tell us it was up to Trump to determine imminent threats?
Robert Satloff@robsatloff

Following on @joekent16jan19's full-throated attack on the #Iran war yesterday and his connection with @DNIGabbard, it is not really a surprise to read the just-published @ODNIgov annual threat assessment and find not a single sentence that raises an urgent alarm about the Iranian threat - nuclear, missiles, terror or otherwise - and could be cited to justify @POTUS' decision to employ massive military force against the Islamic Republic. Indeed, the report actually makes the opposite case, suggesting that there was limited imminent threat from #Iran: "Even before the [current] conflict, Iran’s strategic position was significantly degraded by setbacks in the region and its failure to resolve domestic frustrations." (p. 32) In the "homeland" section, there are 16 paragraphs on the threat of Sunni jihadists -- just one, bland sentence on the threat of Iran-supported terrorism. The foreward mentions everything from fentanyl to immigration but doesn't even mention Iran. (In case you think it was written weeks ago, it states early on "Information available as of 14 March 2026 was used in the preparation of this assessment.") Doesn't look like the @WhiteHouse and ODNI are on the same page. If I were @POTUS, I wouldn't be too happy with this. dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…

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Ali Vaez
Ali Vaez@AliVaez·
What a tragic clown show!
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
@Samra_D Maybe because that’s precisely the claim he made, that he knew nothing about the South Pars attack?
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SamraN
SamraN@Samra_D·
@BeirutCalling 😂 why anyone questions otherwise is beyond me at this juncture.
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Michael Young
Michael Young@BeirutCalling·
Axios reports that the Israeli attack against the South Pars complex was coordinated by the United States and Israel "and approved by Washington." axios.com/2026/03/19/ira…
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