Josh Belanger (@BelangerTrading) - Twitter Profili

Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·2d

On trade desk; if the 2-year starts moving like this, bond traders already voted. Equity desks are still arguing about whether it's a pullback or a repricing. Bond market doesn't argue. As Trump would say they get “Yippy”.

Warren Pies@WarrenPies

Stocks down Gold up 2y yield down Moving from the "inflation concern" phase of the crisis into recession concern phase.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·2d

@WarrenPies On trade desk; if the 2-year starts moving like this, bond traders already voted. Equity desks are still arguing about whether it's a pullback or a repricing. Bond market doesn't argue. It just moves.

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Warren Pies@WarrenPies·2d

Stocks down Gold up 2y yield down Moving from the "inflation concern" phase of the crisis into recession concern phase.

Warren Pies@WarrenPies

Reminder…gold also waiting for signs that more easing is on deck…might move before rates

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·2d

@JamesMarsh79 Congrats! It is tough.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

@virattt I’ve found Sonnet/Haiku models are better for extraction. GPT seems to be better with reasoning and coding.

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Virat Singh@virattt·3d

I'm testing LLMs on SEC filing extraction. Our pipeline runs on GPT-5.4 (high). After noticing missing KPIs, I tested Sonnet 4.6 on the same filing. Results below.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

@moreproteinbars They so much more aggressive. 😆

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Tina@moreproteinbars·3d

Oh dear

*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

TRUMP: IRANIAN NEGOTIATORS ARE VERY DIFFERENT AND "STRANGE."

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

Mortgage apps down 10%. Rates back near October highs. Everyone who bought homebuilders on rate cut hopes - PHM, DHI, LEN - the thesis just cracked again. And it may get worse if there’s even a hint of the thought of a rate hike chatter. Watch out below on XHB.

unusual_whales@unusual_whales

Mortgage demand drops more than 10% as rates hit the highest level since October, per CNBC

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

@unusual_whales Mortgage apps down 10%. Rates back near October highs. Everyone who bought homebuilders on rate cut hopes - PHM, DHI, LEN - the thesis just cracked again. And it may get worse if there’s even a hint of the thought of a rate hike chatter. Watch out below on XHB.

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unusual_whales@unusual_whales·3d

Mortgage demand drops more than 10% as rates hit the highest level since October, per CNBC

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

Everyone's been calling for a dollar collapse for three years. Japan just bought another $40 billion in Treasuries. Foreign holdings near all-time highs. I trade the data.

The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

BREAKING: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries surged +$34.8 billion in January, to $9.3 trillion, the 2nd-highest on record. Japan, the largest foreign-owner, purchased +$39.8 billion, bringing the total to $1.2 trillion, the highest since July 2022. The UK, the 2nd-largest holder, posted a +$29.3 billion increase, to $895.3 billion, the 3rd-highest on record. China's stockpile, the 3rd-largest holder, increased +$10.9 billion, to $694.4 billion, the highest since September. Meanwhile, European Union holdings rose +$8.0 billion, to $2.1 trillion. Foreigners now own more US debt than ever.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·3d

@KobeissiLetter Everyone's been calling for a dollar collapse for three years. Japan just bought another $40 billion in Treasuries. Foreign holdings near all-time highs. I trade the data.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·3d

BREAKING: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries surged +$34.8 billion in January, to $9.3 trillion, the 2nd-highest on record. Japan, the largest foreign-owner, purchased +$39.8 billion, bringing the total to $1.2 trillion, the highest since July 2022. The UK, the 2nd-largest holder, posted a +$29.3 billion increase, to $895.3 billion, the 3rd-highest on record. China's stockpile, the 3rd-largest holder, increased +$10.9 billion, to $694.4 billion, the highest since September. Meanwhile, European Union holdings rose +$8.0 billion, to $2.1 trillion. Foreigners now own more US debt than ever.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·4d

@DylanRatigan Welcome to Substack! Great addition to the platform.

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Dylan Ratigan@DylanRatigan·4d

Summary of today’s first ever live chat on Substack 🌟

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·4d

I've sat on desks where the best ideas got killed because someone above my pay grade. They retracted it because private credit firms are also their clients. You don't short your client's asset class and keep the fees. When a bank apologizes for research, they're not protecting you. They're protecting a relationship.

Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS

lol Along with JPMorgan, Bank of America had created a strategy for some clients to bet against stocks with exposure to private credit. But the bank quickly retracted it and apologized for the idea, with its research analysts later attributing the continuing downturn to “media attention.” @ajsaeedy wsj.com/finance/bankin…

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·4d

I've sat on desks where the best ideas got killed because someone above my pay grade. They retracted it because private credit firms are also their clients. You don't short your client's asset class and keep the fees. When a bank apologizes for research, they're not protecting you. They're protecting a relationship.

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Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS·5d

lol Along with JPMorgan, Bank of America had created a strategy for some clients to bet against stocks with exposure to private credit. But the bank quickly retracted it and apologized for the idea, with its research analysts later attributing the continuing downturn to “media attention.” @ajsaeedy wsj.com/finance/bankin…

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·5d

Few things from someone who started their career at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, once the world's biggest futures exchange: 1. That trade size doesn't get executed from someone's phone. That's an institutional desk. 2. The market absorbed those orders without moving. If that size was truly unusual, you'd see it in the price. You didn't. That tells you this kind of flow isn't as rare as it looks in a screenshot. 3. 7:20am ET is noon in London. The timing lines up more with an overseas institution. 4. If someone had inside knowledge, US futures started trading Sunday at 6pm ET. They wouldn't drop a massive clip 5 minutes before -- they'd have been quietly buying since the open. Who placed it matters more than the conspiracy.

Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough

Sad and embarrassing for America 🇺🇸

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·5d

@KobeissiLetter When gas is at $4 and credit cards are maxed, the brokerage account is the first thing that stops getting funded. Retail doesn't exit the market all at once. They just stop showing up. That's what this chart is really showing.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·5d

Risk appetite among retail investors is plummeting: Retail trading activity as a percentage of total stock volume is down to 8.1%, the lowest since Q3 2024. This percentage has nearly HALVED since the November 2025 peak of 15.0%. By comparison, the 2021 meme stock mania high was 11.5%. Retail market participation is now in-line with levels seen during the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, 0DTE option volume as % of the total is down to 57%, the lowest since Q1 2025. Retail is rushing to the sidelines.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·5d

@KrisAbdelmessih CBOE might disagree with you on this one fren. They named a product Deep Out-Of-the-Money puts "DOOM."

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Kris@KrisAbdelmessih·5d

"Deep" is for ITM and "far" is for OTM. Thank you for your attention to this matter

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·6d

@GunjanJS When gas is at $4 and credit cards are maxed, the brokerage account is the first thing that stops getting funded. Retail doesn't exit the market all at once. They just stop showing up. That's what this chart is really showing.

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Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS·6d

Retail trading activity in single stocks has plummeted--Citi

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·6d

Retail trading volume is collapsing. Not because people lost interest -- because they're broke. Gas at $4. Credit card debt at record highs. Savings rate near zero. The same people who were buying NVDA calls last year are now choosing between groceries and their brokerage account. Affordability isn't a midterm talking point. It's already showing up in the order flow.

Gunjan Banerji@GunjanJS

Retail trading activity in single stocks has plummeted--Citi

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·6d

@harboreric Seems pretty baked in already.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·22 Mar

@TraderPat Right! Typo on my part.

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Hedge it@TraderPat·22 Mar

@BelangerTrading No. He got into at 150, and sold it at 800, but it continued to rise to 1409.

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Josh Belanger@BelangerTrading·22 Mar

Druckenmiller sold NVDA at $150. Watched it go to $1,400. Greatest trader alive. It's harder to hold a winner than cut a loser. Always has been. The sell button is easy. Sitting on your hands while something works -- that's the real skill nobody talks about.

unusual_whales@unusual_whales

"NVDA gone from $150 to $800 I was long-term in it, and I couldn't deal with it, so I sold. Then it was $1,400 like 5 weeks later, and I was sick," Druckenmiller said.

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